Great Points.

I am starting to sway in my belief that we should address the rest of the offense. If there is a QB in the draft that the FO firmly believes in and he is available within reasonable means then I say we take him and hope he pans out. Or at the very least him and Henne push each other so that one of them pans out. If we did this and signed an elite OL from FA then I think we really only lack RB, WR, and TE. I can live with this if we find the right guy at QB.

Great research. I am almost inclined to exclude the Giants from the equation because they were almost simply fulfilling destiny on that one run. I love that they did in the Pats season, but they are not the same as NE, IND & PIT, who have consistently competed for the SB just about every year of the past decade.

I would argue that IND is the only one of the three that clearly built around their QB investment which they made almost initially...which I think somewhat supports your argument - NE & PIT were built to win before their QBs arrived. Our defense is built to win now. We hang on to 1/2 the INTs, we win a couple more games and our D is considered borderline elite. Our offense...not so much, yet.

By the end of this year - please don't let this come true - it might be a fact that a 6th rounder has as many SB wins in the past decade as two #1 overall picks and a #11 overall pick put together. It is already true that the 6th rounder and 2nd rounder have as many as the first rounders.

I also might point out that Brees' 1st 2 years starting are eerily similar to Henne's, statistically. He busted out with an exceptional year 3 (4th year in the league, actually) and an above-average year 4 starting...then got traded and still had to wait 4 more years for his SB. Interestingly, his OC was Cam Cameron...his QB coach was Brian Schottenheimer...the OL coach was Hudson Houck...some dude named Antonio Gates started a string of almost uninterrupted 900+ yd/8+TD seasons and LT was toting the rock.

Please don't misread me - I'm not saying that Henne will = Brees. The thing I'm most worried about with Henne is that I don't see a ton of evidence that he has the 'it' factor. I can't remember if Brees showed the 'it' factor during his time in SD. If he did, then they were REALLY stupid for letting him go. However, Henne doesn't seem to have any of the advantages Brees did then.

I'm not against investing meaningfully in QB, but I don't think Henne should be given up on yet.

Great post phinsfan. Completely agree with you. In todays NFL, having an elite QB means your team is always relevant and contending for a title. The truly elite QBs raise the play of everyone around them. What Philip Rivers is doing with injuries and backups all around him is nothing short of phenomenal.

It's true that getting a top five QB does wonders for your team year in and year out but just remember that its 50/50 on if a first round QB pans out much less becomes one of the best in the league. It's a huge gamble but a gamble that teams must take if they want to be great. It's about time Miami took a risk to become great. No 1st round QB since Marino. . . have to draft one soon. After next season at the latest unless Henne really comes around.

These are all good points but you must realize that with FA EVERY team is building every year. Don't think that the other side of the discussion doesn't know this.

We all get your point. We all want a great QB. It's just that we realize that without a great team we will NOT win a SB.

My point is that I really don't think the gamble of trading #1s this year and next make sense when at best we have a 50/50 shot as you Phinsfan say.

My thought is build the team through the draft and FA and bring in another QB or two to compete. I don't like the idea of starting over with another unproven rookie unless it is someone really great.

Something I think we can all agree on is that much of the offense problem is the OL and Henning. Without getting a new OC I see no point at all in starting over.

Now let's talk about a team with an elite QB that won back to back SBs.
The Denver Broncos. There is absolutly no doubt in my mind that Kubiac could have led those teams to victory through the playoffs and the SB if Elway was hurt. Those teams were really that good. Kubiac was a very good QB that could have started for many other teams.

IT TAKES A COMPLETE TEAM AND THAT IS FACT.

If you have a 1st round caliber QB in the first round available in the first round, take him. Simple. Do it, or tread mediocrity.

Odenn Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you have a 1st round caliber QB in the first
> round available in the first round, take him.
> Simple. Do it, or tread mediocrity.

I don't disagree with this but the chances that an elite QB will be available are pretty slim as we speak. And if that's the case then build the team.

I dont think you ever know if a QB is elite or not, and that is the problem. DO you think Mark Sanchez is elite enough for them to move up and get him. Do you think Stafford is elite and worth the pick. Or Jamarcus Russell for that matter. Even Sam Bradford has question about the shoulder, long term.
As far as Aaron Rodgers goes, alot of other teams choose to pass on him as well. He also got to sit around for quite a while and evolve into his role. Is it Nature or Nurture?
Now as far as the teams you mentioned with Superbowl winning QB's.
Indianapolis- Nobody else had a chance to get him, you have to luck into a QB like this.
Pitt- Good QB- but his defense is the reason he is in this discusion at all IMO really a game manager in alot of respects as well.
NYG- only 2 teams really had a shot at him, and is he really Elite? WOuld you give up alot for ELI to be a dolphins and do you think his play would lead us to a championship
NE- lucked into that one, how many teams passed on this guy, how many times.

Phinfans- I think you make a good point with how hard it is to get all your teams cylinders firing together at the same time enough to win a SUperbowl. I just dont think it is as easy as just deciding to add an elite QB. I think How do you go about getting an elite QB, is the billion dollar question.

Yawn, PhinFans2. You can cite history for almost any proposition and you can find other history to support the opposite proposition.

The fact remains that this team has many serious defects, the LEAST OF WHICH IS QUARTERBACK and it makes no sense to spend what amounts to our welfare check to get a cadillac quarterback.

Now when I say the least defect we have is quarterback, that doesn't mean we are strong at QB or that it is our best position, or even that it is not a problem to be addressed.

We have a problem at quarterback. But not only is that NOT our ONLY problem but it is far from the one that needs addressing WITH A FIRST ROUND DRAFT CHOICE. OL, WR, DB are higher priorities.

Your suggested course of action simply does not make sense. Don't have a heart attack when EVEN this incompetent regime, which I have criticized daily, is not stupid enough to act in conformity with it.

ChyrenB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>WITH A FIRST ROUND DRAFT
> CHOICE. OL, WR, DB are higher priorities.


Been there, done that, didn't work. How much better are we now than before we drafted Carey, Brown, Long, Davis, Ginn and Odrick?

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - Einstein.

The only team I remember being a SB contender over the last decade is NE and they always have a great TEAM.

Who else is a SB contender year in and year out? The Steelers? Not. Let's see, Saints? Not. Uh, Vikings? Not. Uh Chargers? Not.

I can't think of anyone else. Oh of coarse, Giants, Not. Cowboys, Not.
9ers, yup their old teams yup they had a really great team didn't they.

Phinsfan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your entire position is based on the supposition
> that all positions are equal...ergo there is no
> need to over pay for any one particular positional
> need.

RESPONSE: No, and I don't think you can derive that from what I said. I deleted my own post from this reply so as to keep down the over-all length of the post. I talked about needs and greater needs. Nothing I said is susceptible to the interpretation that I believe that a QB is no more valuable than any other position. But the question is our particular team, not the value of the positions in the abstract.

>
> That couldn't be farther from the truth. QB is
> the single most important position in sports.
> They handle the ball on nearly every offensive
> play. You can't win big on a consistent basis
> without one.

RESPONSE: That is true. But neither can a good, average or fairly good QB win "ON A CONSISTENT BASIS" without help from the RB position, the WR position, the OL line and even some help from the defensive secondary in not DROPPING INTERCEPTIONS which if caught would give him a shorter field.

>
> You can win without a excellent LT, DE, DT, LB CB,
> S, WR, or RB.

RESPONSE: You should be a lawyer. Notice, folks, how he slipped in the word "excellent." Now try the same statement with an OL that, how is it that someone on this board called it a "turnstile" blocker. Now try it with WRs that can't catch a pass thrown to them by a six-grade girl. What about CBs who could intercept the ball if the opposing quarterback tucked it in their bellies? What about RBs that are getting old?

In other words, are you saying that we are in such good shape in those positions that we can afford to devote attention (and probably most of our draft choices) to a position even you are not sure we need to replace.

You need to join the "Henne sucks" people, PhinFans2. Your argument would be much more logical if you took that position. However, as long as even you yourself are not willing to say that Henne is NOT a "franchise quarterback" as you put it, why is not illogical for you to be willing to give up the farm (and we ain't got much of a farm to give up mind you) for a high draft QB to replace him.

>
> You can find adequate players at those positions
> in every round of every draft and on the free
> agent wire. Not so much when it comes to finding
> a QB or WE'D HAVE ONE ALREADY.

RESPONSE: I don't know. I think the other positions more than hold their own when you consider, over the years, the top ten positions drafted in each year's draft.

The big historical example of 1983 and then it was only six out of the first 25 or 26th, was it? What number was Marino drafted because he was sixth?

ChyrenB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> RESPONSE: Like keeping on dog paddling when you
> are in a raging river and about to drown and you
> are trying to reach the shore but you are not
> making progress? Should you stop trying to swim
> because you don't seem to be getting closer to the
> shore.

I'm tired of dog paddling Chyren, I wanna swim. I'm tired of losing seasons, no playoffs, being trashed on national TV games, and watching the stinkin' PATS and JETS take home the division. In a word, I'm sick of mediocrity, thats not what a Dolphin fan of 38 years is used to. And IMO, 1 top 10 QB does more to make a team competitive and 'relevant' as PhinsFan2 put it than 3-4 top 10 players at the other positions you mentioned. Thats why I and others think it's worth taking some risks to find a upper echelon QB.

>
> Lesson learned?????????????????????? Lesson
> learned is "ChyrenB is smarter than Einstein."
>
This I had suspected

We've had 2 major instances in recent years of a team dumping a guy too early and using a high draft pick to replace him. The obvious one is Brees (that's a no brainer), but the one no-one talks about is Matt Ryan in Atlanta, remember Matt Shaub was on that team when they drafted Ryan with the 3rd overall pick, you take that 3rd pick and instead draft whatever position they needed most, and keep Shaub (a 3rd rnd pick I might add) and they're just as good right now if not better. Same thing with Brees, keep him on San Diego and use the high pick (2nd overall I think?) that was used on Rivers and they're just as good if not better.

If a guy falls in our lap, I say take him, but no way am I giving up a ton to go get a ? mark. If you guys were saying "sell the farm and move all the way up to get Luck" (who appears like the only true 50/50 gamble worth taking right now.......sarcasm intended) then I might buy into your argument more, but that seems pretty unrealistic to move from anywhere around 15 to 20 all the way up to #1 without gutting this teams draft picks for the next 2 years. If we were in say the top 10 this argument might make more sense, but were not.

Phinsfan2,

IMO the rationality of your post speaks for itself. And therefore I 100% agree with your core proposition. Furthermore, what you present just makes too much common sense in the real world of the NFL – as opposed to the pseudo fantasy word propagated by random football Einstein’s.

Example: some self anointed football Einstein’s actually “think” you can be a serious team in the NFL nowadays with a serviceable sloth like, well, for example, the sloth we have. Heck even Mr. Ed when talking with Wilbur (psychotic?) readily admitted, “the QB pulls the wagon.” Metaphorically or course (with the help of a number of great looking cheerleaders).

It’s like I says before, the top shelf organizations in the NFL SOLVE the QB puzzle.
And until you do, you’re team is nothing more than an also-ran.
Mid pack, maybe slightly above – but no serious challenge.

This is WHY I’m also right on another issue (in my mind of course) – the outright neglect of the QB position. Drafting one (ONE!) legit prospect in 3 years is absolute negligence. The lack of ANY viable alternative on the roster at QB puts us in a very difficult position:

Either:

1) initiate the modification in the draft this year – with the anticipated positional learning curve and admitted “bust factor” factored in. Hence, take 2 this year and keep taking 1 every draft (i.e., round 3-5) until you’re 100% sure the position puzzle is solved.

2) trade for a “Franchise type” QB (i.e., Palmer) and hope the wheels don’t fall off. And then implement the above draft strategy and develop high-level talent at the QB position.

Personally I find the draft MEDICINE the preferred strategy to implement at this point. Though I am willing to concede, as some of the draft mavens have pointed out, there are a number of teams projected to draft in front of us in need on a QB, and the crop may be seriously thinned by the time we pick. If this is the case, then the above noted “neglect” is even that much more critical.

No current option with no draft option = too bad so sad.

And we can all look forward to yet another year of missing the main puzzle piece.

Que Sera, Sera.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/18/2010 05:46AM by BigNastyFish.

KB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm tired of dog paddling Chyren, I wanna swim.
> I'm tired of losing seasons, no playoffs, being
> trashed on national TV games, and watching the
> stinkin' PATS and JETS take home the division. In
> a word, I'm sick of mediocrity, thats not what a
> Dolphin fan of 38 years is used to. And IMO, 1
> top 10 QB does more to make a team competitive and
> 'relevant' as PhinsFan2 put it than 3-4 top 10
> players at the other positions you mentioned.
> Thats why I and others think it's worth taking
> some risks to find a upper echelon QB.

RESPONSE: I feel you, man. I feel where you're coming from.

BigNastyFish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Phinsfan2,
>
> IMO the rationality of your post speaks for
> itself. And therefore I 100% agree with your core
> proposition. Furthermore, what you present just
> makes too much common sense in the real world of
> the NFL – as opposed to the pseudo fantasy word
> propagated by random football Einstein’s.
>
> Example: some self anointed football Einstein’s
> actually “think” you can be a serious team in
> the NFL nowadays with a serviceable sloth like,
> well, for example, the sloth we have. Heck even
> Mr. Ed when talking with Wilbur (psychotic?)
> readily admitted, “the QB pulls the wagon.”
> Metaphorically or course (with the help of a
> number of great looking cheerleaders).
>
> It’s like I says before, the top shelf
> organizations in the NFL SOLVE the QB puzzle.
> And until you do, you’re team is nothing more
> than an also-ran.
> Mid pack, maybe slightly above – but no serious
> challenge.
>
> This is WHY I’m also right on another issue (in
> my mind of course) – the outright neglect of the
> QB position. Drafting one (ONE!) legit prospect in
> 3 years is absolute negligence. The lack of ANY
> viable alternative on the roster at QB puts us in
> a very difficult position:
>
> Either:
>
> 1) initiate the modification in the draft this
> year – with the anticipated positional learning
> curve and admitted “bust factor” factored in.
> Hence, take 2 this year and keep taking 1 every
> draft (i.e., round 3-5) until you’re 100% sure
> the position puzzle is solved.
>
> 2) trade for a “Franchise type” QB (i.e.,
> Palmer) and hope the wheels don’t fall off. And
> then implement the above draft strategy and
> develop high-level talent at the QB position.
>
> Personally I find the draft MEDICINE the preferred
> strategy to implement at this point. Though I am
> willing to concede, as some of the draft mavens
> have pointed out, there are a number of teams
> projected to draft in front of us in need on a QB,
> and the crop may be seriously thinned by the time
> we pick. If this is the case, then the above noted
> “neglect” is even that much more critical.
>
> No current option with no draft option = too bad
> so sad.
>
> And we can all look forward to yet another year of
> missing the main puzzle piece.
>
> Que Sera, Sera.


RESPONSE: BigNastyFish, what the above post demonstrates is that you are closer to me than to PhinFans2. Your ending of the post recognizes that he is, in effect, delusional.

PhinFans2 is living in a homeless shelter discussing his plans to buy the Sears towers with the other residents who are stealing glances at each other when he is not looking.

I am not (at least not yet) the biggest fan of Ireland. But I would nevea says the dude ain’t smart. In retrospect he’s probably kicking himself (perhaps with Dan Carpenter’s help) for not taking another QB when he had the chance – for example, a cat like Colt McCoy.

Anyways, the question now IMO is how qualified he is to actually evaluate QB talent, given the “results” so far. I’m hoping he can solve this one critical blind spot and prove he’s right at the top in terms of young GM’s.

If he does solve it, he will immediately catapult this team (for which much credit he deserves for engineering) right to the top echelon.

I’m kind of thinking he’s been a little bit “influenced” by Parcells when it comes to certain roster priorities – and therefore I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to taking QB’s.

Last, and by far my most opinionated opinion, any “fan” that doesn’t realize we need to get REALLY AGGRESSIVE about the QB position is:

a) not being realistic about the deliberate design of the NFL game today or
b) somehow dreaming the solution is already on the roster or
c) in need of a football IQ booster shot.

And last, the only “guarantee” of doing nothing is the SOS we’ve been dealing with. There is no realistic choice but to act immediately and decisively to solve the QB quandary. That’s our #1 priority until solved verifiably on the field in terms of real production and not some erroneous “potential” (which becomes a lame excuse real fast).



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 12/18/2010 08:51AM by BigNastyFish.

ChyrenB

What???

You are such a twickie wabbit.

However, we have to deal with the QB situaton in a REALISTIC or (as Elmer Fudd would say "WE-alistic" manner.

The only sensible thing to do in light of the uncertainty about Henne is to go for either another free agent or a low round draft choice.

Anyway, we simply don't have the means to do anything else. Even if we all agreed it was the best thing to do. Where are we going to get the where-with-all to trade up? What do we have to offer. We are living in a homeless shelter. Let's just wait for our welfare check (the draft) and see what we can do to fix the other parts of our situation.