Phinsfan2 Wrote:
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>
> Palmer is 32 in 2 weeks. He's going to cost you
> at least a 1st.


Gah....no way then!

I think a Third is the most we should give, as that's probably the round where we should draft a rookie QB anyway.

There has been a lot of talk out of Cincinnati that Palmer could get cut for 2 reasons.

1. He is getting worse every year. Take out the injury year in 2008 (in which his QB rating was sub 70), and his QB rating has dropped every year since 2005. His current rating of 78.1 is barely better than Henne's 76.5. He is also older and more fragile.

2. His salaries for the next few years are huge.

So there has been lots of talk of him getting cut. It will be extremely difficult for the Bengals to trade him because no team would take his contract.

Phinsfan2 Wrote:
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>
> If I could get him for a 3rd, I'd do that in a
> heart beat. You can always trade down in the
> first and add a 3rd.
>
> I think he's cost more than that.
>
> Favre was 38 years old and he went for a 3rd.
>
> Palmer is 32 in 2 weeks. He's going to cost you
> at least a 1st.

Palmer is not and has never been close to as good as Favre. Favre was coming off a great season and Palmer is coming off a string of horrible ones. Plus, as noted, Palmer has a huge contract. I doubt anyone trades for him because of his contract. most likely, cincy gets new coach that drafts "his guy at QB" and Palmer is cut.

Someone else made the point that he's already in what people call the 'prime years'. Even if somehow we landed him via trade or FA, we might get 3-5 years of production before his body starts to fall apart ala Favre style. I'd much rather groom someone in house via the draft and have someone give us 10+ years of solidity at the helm.

Phinsfan2 Wrote:
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> JC Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> >
> > I think a Third is the most we should give, as
> > that's probably the round where we should draft
> a
> > rookie QB anyway.
>
>
> Not if you are looking for a franchise QB. You
> have about a 7% chance of hitting on a 3rd round
> QB that can be your franchise starter for 5-10+
> years.
>

I guess what I"m saying is there's a low chance that Palmer would be a textbook "Franchise QB". I think he'd be more like a Pennington type role, sort of (that's Pennington 2008, by the way). Experienced QB on the squad to lead the team for a year or two (assuming he beats out Henne in T.C. next year). His purpose would be to bridge the gap until the next draft seeing as the upcoming class apparently has a dearth of QB prospects.



> If you are looking for a backup QB or if you are
> comfortable with Henne then taking a QB in rounds
> 3-7 isn't a bad idea.

That would be my fallback plan for Palmer. If he doesn't earn the #1 spot, well we can use a backup also.


> If you are looking for someone to replace Henne
> then you have to shop in the first round (43%
> success rate) or the 2nd round (25% success rate).

Agree with that. But from everything I've read and heard (which admittedly isn't much) this draft class is anemic in the QB department.