I'll probably take a lot of heat for this, but my guess is we still draft him.
Reasons:
- the early news on prognosis for recovery from this specific injury seem fairly positive
- we have a ton of draft capital to do what we want and his price probably just went down significantly. I don't think teams view him as a top 5 pick any more.
- I don't know this for a fact, but as I scan the high 1st rounders over the past 5 years, I would guess that Tua was a better prospect than anyone, if only by a bit over some of them. I have definitely heard that if he were to have come out last year, he would have been the pick over Murray. Meanwhile the most successful QBs seem not to be the highest picks in their respective years and seem to have had various pre-draft reasons why they weren't (thinking Watson, Mahomes, Prescott, Brees, Rodgers, Brady).
- the top QB prospects this year, outside of Burrows, don't seem to be making a case for themselves to be a top 5 pick.
- there's some decent history (McGahee, Jaylon Smith, even Jeffery Simmons) of teams drafting seriously (even gruesomely) injured players relatively high (but obviously not as high as they would have been) and seeing their investment pay off.
- The Phins have specifically been on the wrong end of one of the worst "he's too much of a re-injury risk" deals in the history of the NFL. (Brees, in case I need to spell it out
)
- Cleveland might be the best case study for what we're doing, and they passed up on Wentz & Watson, likely regrettably (tho I do think Mayfield is better than his current performance)
- there's potentially an opportunity to be patient even after drafting him to enable longer healing time and some invaluable learning time (a la Mahomes)...it could take some "savior" pressure off him
- his injuries - though significant - haven't impacted his arm, brain or heart (i.e. will to win)
I'll revise my earlier "plenty of football to be played" statement to "lots of time yet to pass" between now and the draft. And, I'll openly admit that for most every reason above, there's a legitimate rebuttal. My guess is that there will be an element of "bet hedging" that there might not have been before (maybe we draft him and Jalen Hurts, for example...or pick up someone like Bridgewater).
Finally, I'll say I'm not even sure I know how I feel about the idea of us still picking him. This was more an attempt to look into the crystal ball than to make a case one way or the other.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/23/2019 11:05PM by tsstamper.