I think Jeff Ireland is finding himself in a spot he didn't expect to be in. But, this is a good thing.

Ryan Tannehill has shown the poise and polish of a 3 or 4 year veteran. The players have bought into Philbin and his style. And they stuck together after two very tough losses.

Heading into this season, I think the Fins were faced with how they would rebuild around their young QB. They faced having a lot of key players with their contracts up at the end of 2012. But, it's rebuilding, and you have extra draft picks coming up.

Things have changed. Tannehill looks like he's ready to take the next step up right now, if he had the weapons around him. The offensive line doesn't appear to have any major holes. The defense is good, although very thin in terms of depth. Things are looking good.

But, then there is the list of guys who are due to hit free agency at the end of the season:
Jake Long
Reggie Bush
Brian Hartline
Anthony Fasano
Randy Starks
Sean Smith
Chris Clemons

All of them starters. All of them key in their own way. I know lots of people aren't impressed with Fasano, but he is a very good blocking TE who is a solid receiving option as well. Clemons looks like a much improved player. Two months ago, you would have said, maybe we'll re-sign 2 or 3. Now, the outlook is different. Now, you have to think about how you keep the core of this team together. And you use the extra draft picks on guys you think can put you over the top, rather than pure rebuilding. If anyone thinks Miami is going to spend big on free agents from other teams (like Dwayne Bowe), think again. Green Bay doesn't do that, and that's what Philbin knows. He has said that bringing in free agents, particularly on offense, never worked for them. So, Ireland's focus now has to shift from total rebuilding to thinking about a team that can be a real threat in 2013. And that means bringing back as many of these guys as possible. It will be interesting to see if any of them can get a contract done during this season.

Some of these guys will be more pricey than others. I think Starks will command more money than we're willing to pay. Bush and Smith should be keepers. Long should take a pay cut. Hartline, Fasano, and Clemons should be cheap to keep.

I hate to use all of our cap space to resign the core of a team that had been under 500 the last few years and, while i like where we are headed, I don't think this team is a contender as constituted. I especially don't want to break the bank on guys like fasano, hartline, and reggie bush. they are good players (especially bush) but not worth huge $$ if that is what it would take (I don't think any of them will get hugh money but thy will be asking for a lot).

________________________________________________________
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

dolfanmark Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Jeff Ireland is finding himself in a spot
> he didn't expect to be in. But, this is a good
> thing.
>
> Ryan Tannehill has shown the poise and polish of a
> 3 or 4 year veteran. The players have bought into
> Philbin and his style. And they stuck together
> after two very tough losses.
>
> Heading into this season, I think the Fins were
> faced with how they would rebuild around their
> young QB. They faced having a lot of key players
> with their contracts up at the end of 2012. But,
> it's rebuilding, and you have extra draft picks
> coming up.
>
> Things have changed. Tannehill looks like he's
> ready to take the next step up right now, if he
> had the weapons around him. The offensive line
> doesn't appear to have any major holes. The
> defense is good, although very thin in terms of
> depth. Things are looking good.
>
> But, then there is the list of guys who are due to
> hit free agency at the end of the season:
> Jake Long
> Reggie Bush
> Brian Hartline
> Anthony Fasano
> Randy Starks
> Sean Smith
> Chris Clemons
>
> All of them starters. All of them key in their own
> way. I know lots of people aren't impressed with
> Fasano, but he is a very good blocking TE who is a
> solid receiving option as well. Clemons looks like
> a much improved player. Two months ago, you would
> have said, maybe we'll re-sign 2 or 3. Now, the
> outlook is different. Now, you have to think about
> how you keep the core of this team together. And
> you use the extra draft picks on guys you think
> can put you over the top, rather than pure
> rebuilding. If anyone thinks Miami is going to
> spend big on free agents from other teams (like
> Dwayne Bowe), think again. Green Bay doesn't do
> that, and that's what Philbin knows. He has said
> that bringing in free agents, particularly on
> offense, never worked for them. So, Ireland's
> focus now has to shift from total rebuilding to
> thinking about a team that can be a real threat in
> 2013. And that means bringing back as many of
> these guys as possible. It will be interesting to
> see if any of them can get a contract done during
> this season.

Good post Mark. I agree.

I give Ireland credit for taking the cap hits he did last year and this to set us up for next year.

I think we'll be players in free agency but I think it will be for younger guys we think are coming into their own or can be bargains like Richard Marshall last year. I'll be shocked if we spend serious money on anyone, let alone someone who isn't a pass rusher.

Just as a guess we are in the neighborhood of $50+ mill under next years cap.

in rough figure we should be able to get deals done with:

Smith for 7-9 mill per.
Hartline, Fasano and Clemons in that 3-5 range.

That's 13-21 mill.

If Long walks cause his demands are unreasonable we could put that money into Starks and a FA WR.

I just don't see us bringing BOTH starks and Long back.

If Long leaves I think we look for his replacement in the first or 2nd round. I could see us going after a proven WR like Greg Jennings if that happened.

its going to be a fascinating off-season for us. Ireland, by luck and design, has put himself in a position to rebuild very quickly.

If things break right and he has another good draft we could be in very good shape indeed going into next year.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/29/2012 03:46PM by THE Truth.

Wow hard choices would break my heart to lose Starks or Fasano. Those 2 guys did everything this franchise asked of them and are excellent team players and leaders. Maybe we can put the franchise tag on Long and stil sign Smith and Starks. I think we resign Fasano and Clemons. No way do we dump a pile of cash on Hartline or treat him as a priority. Bush deserves to be resigned too but I think Long, Smith and Starks are the priorities.

mizzou15 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wow hard choices would break my heart to lose
> Starks or Fasano. Those 2 guys did everything this
> franchise asked of them and are excellent team
> players and leaders. Maybe we can put the
> franchise tag on Long and stil sign Smith and
> Starks. I think we resign Fasano and Clemons. No
> way do we dump a pile of cash on Hartline or
> treat him as a priority. Bush deserves to be
> resigned too but I think Long, Smith and Starks
> are the priorities.


Franchise Tag for Long is something like $15 mill. I only think that happens if we are going to trade him.

If he holdsout for more than the 8 year/$92 mill Joe Thomas got then I think he's out of here.

montequi Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Some of these guys will be more pricey than
> others. I think Starks will command more money
> than we're willing to pay.

The Starks case is the most interesting, because he may be the most difficult one to replace. You lose him up front, and your d-line is severely downgraded.

Adding to the situation are the relatively large cap hits due with Dansby, Soliai, Incognito, and Marshall. Two months ago, I would have said that Dansby was a sure cap casualty, saving over $4M in cap space. Now, the right play with him am be trying to renegotiate his deal to lower his cap number.

I agree that the money that Long will likely demand is probably excessive. But, the intangible factor there is that Long may be the most respected player in the locker room, and is clearly seen as a major team leader. If rebuilding, it's easier to let him walk away. On the verge of contending, letting him walk is problematic within the locker room and with team chemistry.

football is business I think all of the players know this. I don't think trading Long will destroy the team. I don't wish it but I don't view him as irreplacable

I think Starks may the most irreplaceable of all the guys listed. I would hate to see him leave more than anyone else. I'd like to keep them all but I have similar reservations as Berk. It will come down to guaranteed money and how we structure these deals. I would prefer early outs on Hartline, Clemons, Bush, and Fasano's deals. This allows us to move on if a better option presents itself with little cap ramifications. Long, Starks, and Smith are all cornerstones on the team. We can't really afford to lose any of them but they will all command large amounts of guaranteed money. This is fine but we better be sure Jake Long returns to top LT form, Sean Smith continues to develop into a top 10 CB in the league, and Starks can retain his form into his early 30's. Risk aplenty but that is the NFL for a GM.

One other thing to mention. GB seems to get their players to sign reasonable deals for less than market value all the time. Maybe Philbin can have a similar influence. Also, Ireland has rarely overpaid in his time here, yet we rarely have let a significant piece leave in FA. Soliai and Wake have both recently signed team friendly deals. It might be dreaming but I think its possible we can keep most these guys on team friendly deals. We can sell them on S. Fla, a HC they seem to enjoy playing for, Tannehill, and hopefully a playoff appearance.

This off season will be a turning point for the franchise one way or the other.

Fasano is a totally average TE. Maybe he is the 15th best TE in the league. We need to upgrade.

________________________________________________________
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

I'd hate to see any of them go. But I guess if you had to make room $$$ money wise, I'd start with Reggie Bush. Smith has really started to bring it. Got to secure him. He's young with many yrs left. Long would be nice , but may be too expensive. Hopefully they can work things out with all of them.

Starks and Soliai are really playing out of their minds together. I would strongly hesitate to break up that duo, as I think it's a case of 1 + 1 = >2. An utterly ridiculous offer from another team would pretty much be the only thing that pries him from my cold dead hands :-)

Smith is playing outstanding CB in a contract year. He's the one I would consider tagging if he won't accept a reasonable deal. Honestly, it's because I view him as the most likely to regress if he gets paid. Sad to say, but I want to see it 2 years in a row.

Long has to be able to let go of the contract Thomas got from CLE. If I'm Ireland, I put an offer on the table that's in alignment with the actual value of LT to a team and allow Long to either take it or explore FA. Just a hunch, but I would guess that Long takes the offer if it's not grossly offensive.

Bush - see Long. Both are very good, but both are slowed by injuries or not performing as well as they have in the past. I think we'll really regret spending too much cap on positions that aren't as valuable as they once were on players who are older (esp Bush in RB years).

I agree with Truth that Fasano, Clemons and Hartline should be able to be had for the $3-5 million range. Of the 3, Clemons is the one I would let go if necessary, as Coyle has a proven track record of getting safeties to really play up. Precious few people like Fasano, but I'm guessing our QBs and coaches are in the opposite camp. And, the nice thing about him is that his physical limitations and age automatically exclude him from elite money. Hartline is the one I think a team could take a flyer on just like some team always does on a young WR who looks like he's up & coming. If we tag Smith, we may lose Hartline to a contract offer we simply don't want to match. Sad cuz he's one of my favorite players, but may be the reality.

Good insight tsstamper.

I thought of one other thing. Look at this past draft, we took Egnew and Miller when neither were really positions in desperate need (i.e. WR, CB, and OG at the time). It could have been BPA but I have to think Ireland is hedging his bets on Bush and Fasano with Lamar and Egnew. Obviously it hasn't worked out in Egnew's case but if Lamar continues to develop then we have a nice fall back plan in place if Bush has higher contract demands.

Also, we do need to add more receiving threats, whether that is at WR or TE but Fasano is solid and I don't think a high round TE will be able to duplicate his production right away (and probably never as far as run blocking). I still have hope for Egnew as well, TE seems to be a position where guys just pop out of nowhere once everything clicks. Look at V. Davis, he was mediocre for years then he exploded. Gates and J. Graham went from seasons with basically no productivity to the pro bowl. M. Bennet went from Jason Witten's backup to a productive player for the Giants. TE is a strange position and hard to predict.

My concern with Jake Long is that he doesn't seem to be playing anywhere near how he's played in the past. One example, the touchdown to Fasano in the jest game, Jake basically whiffed his block and credit Matt Moore for throwing a beautiful pass with a defender in his face. Is he still suffering the lingering effects of an injury?

Right now Fasano is about the only red zone option we have and the coaches love him. He is making 3.6 mil this year.

So far it looks like there is something going on in Miami that the players are buying into. Maybe Long doesn't get greedy because he wants to remain here with his friends. One thing is for sure Ireland won't over spend. Players now are making higher numbers since it usually escalates deeper into the contract years.

I'm sure Long's contract offer will be indicative of how he grades out this year and also depending where he is at physically...lingering long term issues etc. Jake Long has a higher base salary than Joe Thomas this year. 700k more. I think we can reduce that 11.2m number with a long term deal and signing bonus spread over the contract.

The players here believe there is something special happening in Miami. I heard Bess say it yesterday. Could be part of the reason we are doing well.

Reggie Bush has disappeared over the last several weeks. He has only had one 100 yard game this year. No tthat he has been terrible but he has not been as decisive. Could be injury related or line related. He needs to play much better. Way too much dancing. Could also be why Thomas got more carries than him vs the Jets. Bush is making 4.5 mil this year. He is currently the 8th highest paid RB in base salary. He may get an extension but not much of a raise.

Hartline is making 1.3 mil this year so a raise won't be hard to do. he has also faded into the grass at times.

That being said, I agree we have chemistry now and need to keep it together.

Jake Long 9m
Reggie Bush 4m
Brian Hartline 3.5m
Anthony Fasano 3.5m
Randy Starks (currently 3.73m, 28 years old) 5m
Sean Smith (currently 565k) 4m
Chris Clemons 2.8m

That's 31.8 million with the assumed numbers. They will surely vary from my guestimate but it will be in that range. That still gives us approx. 18m to spend.

Tony McD, Matt Moore, Gaffney, Trusnik also are UFA's. Pat Devlin is a RFA and will need to be tendered. Moore will have a starting gig somewhere in 2013.

Miami was assigned 6.4m to sign 9 rookies in 2012. We will have 9 picks again in 2013 but 5 of them are in the first 3 rounds.

31.8m + 7m = 38.8m

Still leaves us with 11.2m to sign a couple other FA's.

If Vernon keeps progressing we will not need a pass rusher as much. Fred Davis, Jared Cook are FA's in 2013. Others...Jason McCourty CB. Brent Grimes CB, Mike Wallace...Ed Reed, Dwight Freeney, Clif Avril, Ryan Clady, Wes Welker, Connor Barwin.

We definitely need a shut down CB and #1 WR and or TE if we want to take the next step.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

I hadn't thought of the RB & TE depth that we have on the roster. In both cases, I think we have the potential for good quality depth, but it's not yet proven depth. Miller has shown enough talent to be leveraged in Bush negotiations if they were to go that way. It's pretty clear that Bush is a more mature and well-rounded player at this point in his career so I'm not saying Miller steps in and we don't miss a beat.

TE is a position that intrigues me with the players we have on the roster. I've not given up hope on Egnew, but I hope he's making good use of his time preparing for next year. Clay is probably the biggest individual disappointment for me this year. Given how he stretched the field the 2nd half of last year, I had visions of what he could do in the WCO. My guess is that he's picking it up more slowly, but both he and Egnew give us more athletic options than Fasano if they can make their way out of the woods.

Fins72 quote: My concern with Jake Long is that he doesn't seem to be playing anywhere near how he's played in the past.


I didnt see him get beat once on this last game against the jets...And i will stand corrected if he had any penalties.

I wish we didnt take for granted what we have.

eesti Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That being said, I agree we have chemistry now and
> need to keep it together.
>
> Jake Long 9m
> Reggie Bush 4m
> Brian Hartline 3.5m
> Anthony Fasano 3.5m
> Randy Starks (currently 3.73m, 28 years old) 5m
> Sean Smith (currently 565k) 4m
> Chris Clemons 2.8m

These are mostly on the low end of these players price range. Clemons and Fasano should be right on. Hartline will be 3-5 mil depending on the rest of his year. Starks will probably cost 6-8 mpy, I would be shocked if we kept him for less than 6mpy as he is now considered one of the top DT in the NFL. Long will cost at least 10 mpy just based off of his current contract. Sean Smith is as good as Brandon Carr from last year and Dallas gave him a big deal so I think he will cost about 7-9 mpy depending on the market for CB's and his finish to the season. Reggie will command 4-6 mpy unless he has a monster finish to the year, which is unlikely considering his performance recently.

All in all, most of your estimates are low and while that would be great it just won't happen in every case. Some guys will probably take team friendly deals but some will probably chase the money. If we keep all these guys plus sign our picks then we won't be reeling in a high profile FA. Although we could pick up a solid contributor like Richard Marshall.

berkeley223 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fasano is a totally average TE. Maybe he is the
> 15th best TE in the league. We need to upgrade.


Fasano consistently ranks much higher than that at PFF. He earns very high grades for his blocking, which is something overlooked by many when it comes to the TE position.

So far this season, PFF has him ranked #7. He was also #7 in 2011, and #4 in 2010.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/30/2012 08:12AM by dolfanmark.

eesti Wrote:
> Jake Long 9m
> Reggie Bush 4m
> Brian Hartline 3.5m
> Anthony Fasano 3.5m
> Randy Starks (currently 3.73m, 28 years old) 5m
> Sean Smith (currently 565k) 4m
> Chris Clemons 2.8m
>

Those represent pretty decent pay cuts for both Bush and Long. Would they take pay cuts? Starks got $5M per year from us as a relatively unproven player from the Titans. Now that he has established himself as a Pro Bowl player, would he really take $5M again?

I think Smith is looking at more than $4M. I'm not sure he is worth it. At his best, yes, he is. But, he is still inconsistent. For example, he was great against Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green,yet he allowed 3 catches to Clyde Gates and a couple of good gains to Brandon Gibson. Elite corners don't even get that many attempts thrown their way in a game. He has not taken that next step yet.

I think part of the answer is restructuring some other deals. Karlos Dansby carries a big cap number, but his guaranteed money drops significantly after this year. They could offer him more future guaranteed money while lowering his cap number for 2013. Paul Soliai's salary jumps up to over $7M next year. His deal could be extended to lower next year's cap hit. Richie Incognito is another guy whose contract could be extended to lower his cap number. This sort of manuevering would allow them to re-sign more guys.

It just is an interesting dynamic. Two months ago, the vibe would have been totally different. Now, they really have to think about how they keep the core together, and how they keep their leadership intact.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/30/2012 08:11AM by dolfanmark.

I would be for trading Long for a 1st rounder in 2013 and another pick in 2014. We could flip Martin to LT. I hate to finagle w/ the oline but gives us time to see if Martin can handle the left side, his natural side.

mizzou15 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would be for trading Long for a 1st rounder in
> 2013 and another pick in 2014. We could flip
> Martin to LT. I hate to finagle w/ the oline but
> gives us time to see if Martin can handle the left
> side, his natural side.

Long is a free agent at the end of the year. No team is giving up a first round pick for a rental OT. Plus, trading away maybe your most respected team leader in the next two days for a draft pick would crush the locker room. It would totally deflate the spirit they have right now.

That's true regarding Long as a f/a. Don't think it will defalte the locker room these guys are professionals. We might lose him in free agency you cannot tell.

This team has "chemistry" and I have a high degree of confidence every player on that list will want to stay in Miami for that reason plus:

1) this team is on the rise and has a very bright future
2) players want to play for a team with a great HC and QB
3) players want to play in a warm climate

That said, there's only one player on the list who needs to adjust his compensation downward in a significant way, and that's Long. So I guess we'll see how much of a team guy he is this off-season.

The dudes who deserve $ignificant raises are: Sean Smith, Chris Clemons, Brian Hartline. These guys are in "show me the money" mode and are all important to the future of the team. All young and developing players. I guess Smith is the most critical but we need to keep all 3.

I believe Reggie and Randy already make some good coin, but they're both big priorities to resign. They like the program and appreciate how new staff handles their careers. Both will resign a "competitive" deal.

The coaching staff loves Anthony Fasano because all the dude does is play solid football and he's a real Pro. I also think Anthony is really positive about where the team is heading and will resign for fair compensation.

As far as Jake, I think that one is somewhere around 50/50. Though I think he'd prefer to stay in Miami.

In Green Bay they build through the draft and resigning their own FAs. I think Philbin will follow that approach. GB is never a big spender in FA.

So I look for the phins to re-sign their key FAs, find inexpensive system guys in FA, and utilize their extra picks to build the roster.

mizzou15 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> football is business I think all of the players
> know this. I don't think trading Long will destroy
> the team. I don't wish it but I don't view him as
> irreplacable

***************************************************

I think much of it will depend on his agent.

If we lose Long, we already have his replacement -- Martin.

berkeley223 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fasano is a totally average TE. Maybe he is the
> 15th best TE in the league. We need to upgrade.

****************************************************

Fasano is a good, dependable TE. It won't be easy to replace him as there aren't that many TEs that are better that Miami could get and the draft won't produce any because of where Miami drafts and their other, more serious needs. Granted, Miami could get lucky, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Fasano is playing well..............he is playing way above his level of play.

mizzou15 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would be for trading Long for a 1st rounder in
> 2013 and another pick in 2014. We could flip
> Martin to LT. I hate to finagle w/ the oline but
> gives us time to see if Martin can handle the left
> side, his natural side.

****************************************************

Not gonna get a 1st rounder for Long. Too many injuries and getting up in age. He isn't as dominate as he was his first couple of years, and he carries an extremely high price tag.

Miami would be lucky to get a 2nd rounder for him, but I would venture to say a 3rd rounder is what Miami would get.