We all know that we've developed into a team that generally takes care of business with teams we ought to beat and struggles against the league's better teams.

While each loss has its own combination of specific reasons, and many are seemingly inextricably linked together, my (hopefully not lying) eyes have seen that a common theme is our offense's inability to score points in crunch time at the end of games against quality opponents. And it's often a time when Tua's throwing more than we're running. I mention "our offense" and the run/throw balance because McDaniels and Tua seem so tightly integrated. And, I think that integration means they'd both need to significantly contribute to the solution.

4 of our 6 losses came in the 2nd half of the season, and I think are reflective of the league's defenses catching up to our offense in-season. That's largely on McDaniels.

For Tua's part, Pro Football Reference gives statistics on pressure and bad throws. Not surprisingly, they're somewhat linked for Tua (and probably everyone). Each of the top 4 pressure % games were losses for us (TEN, BUF in MIA, BUF, KC). And each of those 4 resulted in Tua throwing a higher % of bad throws than his average. The 2 losses where they weren't in the top 4 pressure % were Baltimore and Philly, and both of those were pretty darn close to the average and in both games his bad throw % were above average (Philly being close, Baltimore being among his top 3 bad throw games). Interestingly, against BUF, in both games the pressure was way above average but his bad throw %'s were fairly close to average. Suggests he/the offense is better at handling the Buffalo pressure than teams they're less familiar with.

At any rate, I like some of what we've done in player acquisition to address this. I think OBJ and Jonnu Smith are better options than what we had last year in terms of reliably getting open while not being named Tyreek or Jaylen. I'm less comfortable with what we've done on the OL, but better health alone could make a big positive difference there.

Things I think should be done to improve offensive performance against quality opponents:
- run more
- have Tua run a bit more...still emphasizing health, tho so not going crazy here
- involve RBs in the passing game more so they're more of a viable threat in crunch time
- leverage Tyreek's and Jaylen's impact to create crunch time opportunities for others
- I've heard McDaniel commented that Tua's working to improve arm strength a bit, which should help keep a fuller portion of the field to work with where defenses at crunch time seem to clamp down on shorter stuff and he throws long but they're often more jump ball heaves, it seems

These are in addition to things like "OL protect better" and "don't throw ill-advised passes", etc. Anyway, a bunch of thoughts stemming from observation of data in games we lost last year.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/03/2024 12:44PM by tsstamper.

#1 position to watch? CB or whoever plays opposite Jaylen Ramsey. All of our melt downs came from bad special teams play/ bad position.......and a few well placed throws .

There is a small possibility X resigns for a 1 yr contract. Whenever we get an INT it's almost the same as a touchdown. Especially if it's in the opponents red zone.

We lost a Huge piece of our defense in Wilkins. How will this defense play without him? Don't know because I honestly don't remember him ever not playing . Hopefully we added enough pieces to make up for his loss.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!

I had definitely focused on the offensive side of the ball, recognizing of course that defense & ST have their part in every win & loss.

Picking on just one game - the final one against Buffalo - that had a little bit of everything. We actually did pick of Allen 2x...one in the red zone and one in the end zone on a long pass attempt. But, to your point, we allowed a return for TD and couldn't stop Allen for a 74-yd TD drive in the 4th quarter. Then, to my point, our last 5 drives were for a combined 47 yards and ended punt x4 and final interception. Offensively, we had 0 answer...it was like we were stopped stone cold in our tracks.

I'd say my perspective is that if there's one player whose continued development or lack thereof most impacts the season, it's Tua. But, if we get basically the same Tua as in 2023 (and I'm hoping that's not the case), then I think the next most impacting player variable is the CB opposite Ramsey. Or, at least, that player is positioned to have the greatest impact one way or another.

Excellent analysis on the Buffalo loss.
I think Miami saw it as well.but but clearly are making a concerted effort to improve in special teams.We signed Buffalo Bills cornerback Siran Neal as a free agent, another addition designed to help the special teams and Cam Brown from the Giants.

In the annual special teams rankings put together by veteran sportswriter Rick Gosselin analyzing 22 statistical categories, the Dolphins came in 31st last season.

That's the reason we can't beat better teams. Lost yardage.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!

I often wonder why Tua takes so much heat for late season swoons and lack of success against "better" teams. That's been a problem for Miami long before Tua became the QB. What's the one constant in all this time? Grier and Ross. If I blame anyone for the lack of progress, I have to point to Grier. It's his roster. It's his decisions on free agency. He's the guy who gave us Gase and Flores. When considering Tua's ability to beat better defenses, you have to consider he's undefeated against Belichick and has had good success against the Jets (which for all their problems tend to be a very good defensive team).The problems beating the better teams is a much more complex issue than just Tua.

Late season games are usually in chilly weather where Tua has NEVER excelled. This season also, starting late November, we'll have away games in Green Bay, Cleveland, against the Jest and San Fran at home, that sounds like a formula for another late season swoon.

We can respectfully disagree on why the Dolphins have had trouble in the later stages of the season, but it still begs the question of, if not Tua, then who? I seriously doubt Miami will pick high enough in next year's draft to have a shot at any of the premium QB prospects. Even if they did, a rookie QB is a crap shoot at best. Think Zach Wilson and Justin Fields. I think we can agree that Mike White and Skylar Thompson would be disastrous. What's the Plan B? Dak Prescott? He's going to want 60 mill a year and his playoff record is a miserable 2-5. Kirk Cousins? You won't get him cheap, and if we're being incredibly generous, would be a lateral move. What bothers me is that this franchise flirted with bringing in Deshaun Watson (who's off the field baggage was nothing short of disgusting) and then lost the team a 1st round draft pick because they tampered trying to get a 45 year old QB and a Coach who Miami beat by 50 points. Now, they're pissing off the best QB Miami's had since Danny Marino and I'll guarantee that Grier has no contingency plan. Maybe his plan will be the same one he used trying to replace Wilkins. He'll sign a bunch of journeyman QBs in hopes that one might end up playing slightly above average.

It's simple. Our offense disappears completely when we need it the most. Tua does NOTHING to win those late games against good opponents. He looks lost and is ineffective at those times when we need him to take control of the game- and he has proven that he CANNOT do so. So all of his gaudy statistics- compiled against inferior teams- he does not win ANY of the important games.

Rick

No, I think you're right about replacing Tua, but why would Mike White or more particularly Skylar Thompson be disastrous? Thompson had a better showing in his rookie playoff game than Tua has had in ANY big game, including his one lousy- and I do mean LOUSY - playoff game. The WHOLE idea behind football is to WIN! Tua can't win the important games, so what do we need him for? To get into the record books? So what? He is here to win CHAMPIONSHIPS, and he hasn't shown any ability to do that. I don't know if Thompson could, but I think that he's just as likely to win one as Tua is. Maybe White, too. That's why I am in favor of Tua playing out the fifth-year option. He has NOT earned what would be a HUGE contract. IF he earns it, PAY THE MAN! Otherwise, let him walk and replace him.

Rick

The reason I think that Skylar Thompson or Mike White would be disastrous is I've seen them play. You brought up Thompson's performance in the Bills playoff game. He was 18 of 45 for 220 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs. One of the touchdowns was a fumble return for a TD by Seiler and Cedric Wilson had a 50 yard punt return to set up another score. Two Allen INTs gave Miami short fields for scores.

Thompson only completed 40% of his passes. That's pretty disastrous. If Tua had had that kind of performance, and the game was only lost by 3 points, Tua would have been brutalized by the media and some fans.

Mike White's career stats include 9 TDs, 13 INTs, and a 76.1 passer rating. Tua has helped to mask the offensive line's deficiencies by getting rid of the ball quickly. Neither White or Thompson has shown that sort of quick processing abilities and quick releases.

The reality is that last year was the first year that Tua completed a full season. I have no idea whether he'll lead the team to a SB win, but there's no doubt he's the best available option by far. If playoff wins are the barometer for franchise QBs, then Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott are questionable franchise QBs. As far as Tua's performance in playoff games, he's played in one. That's it. Had he played in the Buffalo game, I think it's reasonable to believe he'd have given Miami a much better chance of winning. I don't think he's ever played in a game where he only completed 40% of his passes.

Dak Prescott has been in the league for 8 years, has never been to a Super Bowl, and is 2-5 in playoff games. He's likely to be the highest paid QB in the NFL. Has Prescott shown me more than Tua? I don't think so. Some media heads talk about him as being an option if Tua leaves Miami. Honestly, that's laughable if the main criticism of Tua is playoff performance. Moreover, you ain't getting him cheap.

Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in playoff games. Baltimore still ponied up the cash because regardless of his playoff record, Lamar is a great QB and there wasn't a better alternative. Peyton Manning was 0-3 in the playoffs his first five years in the league. He ended up in the Hall of Fame. Look, I don't know what Tua's trajectory in the NFL is going to be. What I do know is that his numbers over the past two years have been outstanding. You don't pay him now, you risk having to franchise him next year. Miami can't do that because the cap ramifications won't allow it. The only justification for not extending him is the expectation that you're going to part ways with him next year. I really doubt that Miami is going to want to do that because the alternatives are at best completely unknown and at worst really bad.

Maybe I'm just old enough to remember QBs that came after Dan that gave Miami NO chance at success. Luminaries like Ray Lucas, A.J. Feeley, Sage Rosenfels, Cleo Lemon, John Beck, Tyler Thigpen, Jay Cutler, Josh Rosen, Joey Harrington, and the list goes on.

If we have to rely on Skylar Thompson or Mike white we are toast.

"Next best alternative" should always be the primary factor in decisions like these. I don't think the savings of having Skylar or White be QB could be made up for by utilizing it on other positions to an extent that it would give us an equal or better chance of winning a SB.

I totally agree. I mentioned Thompson's performance in the Buffalo playoff game. I neglected to mention his performance in the 2022 season finale Jets game. He was 20 of 31 for 152 yards, no TDs and no INTs. The offense scored 9 points at home against a Jets team that was 7 and 10, had nothing to play for, and Miami needed the win to make the playoffs. I'd note that Tyreek, Waddle, and Mostert all played in that game. To suggest that Miami would be a playoff team with Thompson starting at QB is either a lie or a delusion. Probably the quickest way to get rid of the Tua hate among the fan base is to go through a season of Thompson or White starting. One of the names that's been suggested by some Miami "journalists" that could replace Tua if Miami doesn't retain him is Kirk Cousins. It's suggestions like this that make me think that they're just screwing with us. They're talking about a much older QB whose coming off of a torn Achilles tendon with a 1-4 playoff record. Doing that should be a fireable offense for the entire front office.

tsstamper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "Next best alternative" should always be the
> primary factor in decisions like these. I don't
> think the savings of having Skylar or White be QB
> could be made up for by utilizing it on other
> positions to an extent that it would give us an
> equal or better chance of winning a SB.

I agree. Even on the presumption that upon replacing Tua with a mediocre QB Grier would spend the money on solidifying other positions, winning a Super Bowl like that would be preposterous. On a completely separate note, I'd prefer keeping Tua and finding a defensive coordinator that stays more than one season. Players having to learn a new system every year makes no sense and I think must cost us some wins during the learning curve.