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          REVIEW OF THE DRAFT - 2 YEAR OUTLOOK
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REVIEW OF THE DRAFT - 2 YEAR OUTLOOK
Date: April 27, 2009 12:30PM

I think we all have to remember that no matter how well we did last year, to completelly overhaul a team (and we needed a FULL overhaul) it takes at least three years. I think this weekend's draft shows that Parcells, Ireland, and Sporano understand this and are following a blueprint they set out before last year's draft.

These are just my thoughts, but I've broken down the team into their positional groupings and compared where we were in 2008, we we seem to be heading in 2009, and a possible forecast for what might happen in 2010. Comments are welcome.

Quarterback
I think we were all surprised at how well this turned out for us last year. Experienced veteren, rookie with a lot of promise, and a third teamer who has potential but to this point underachieved. I see 2009 as an improvement. Pennington can potentially stay at his high level of play especially with a better running game and hopefully a more experienced group of receivers to throw to. Henne should be improved going into his second year, and Pat White is an incredible improvement over Beck. If White gets 5-10 touches a game and makes the Wildcat more dangerous as a vertical threat, 2009 should be solid from the QB position. 2010 should be a transitions period and most likely the fate of the team will rest with how well Henne steps into the starter's role. It would be great to resign Pennington to compete for another year as well.

Running Back
I see good things for the RB position in 2009. 2008 was a little bit of a disappointing year for Brown and Williams, which could be due to both of them coming back from injury, absence, and poor play from the interior of the line. 2009 should be much, much better with Brown almost 2 years from his surgery, Williams back in football shape, and Cobb with another year of playing experience under him. The base offensive running attack is the key to the 2009 season (much like Henne will be the key to the 2010 season) and I fully expect a good 2,000 yards out of the three backs. 2010 is a tough read, although I expect Brown to be resigned and either Williams or another veteran RB to be added (much like Taylor was added to the Patriots). A rookie could also be drafted in 2010 to compete with Cobb for that final spot.

I like Polite but I was hoping to add a slam blocking FB to the mix this year. I still think this is a need and is a weak point on the team heading into 2009/2010.

Wide Receivers
Out of all the positions I am confused the most out of this area of the team. Last year we had Ginn/Camarillo/Bess/London/Wilford. Their play was above average (which was a nice surprise) and the top four have potential to improve due to their young age and various abilities. I like that we have a speed guy, a hands guy, a slot guy, and a big guy with the returning four (I see Wilford being gone). I see everyone except Camarillo getting better - he may have topped out with his skills and will have difficulty returning from his injury. I see Hartline taking his position in the rotation and Turner taking Wilford's spot. When/If Camarillo returns there should be some good competition to get on the field.

What is lacking is still the true number one receiver. So I see us better in 2009 but still above average overall when compared to other teams. With Henne taking over in 2010 we could see some improvement based on the field being a little more spread out due to his arm and Ginn really coming into his own. Offseason 2010 it may be time to take a bold move here.

Offensive Line
I really like what we did here over the offseason for the top 5 guys. We have Long, Smiley, Grove, Thomas, and Carey all under contract for the next 3-4 years and they are all good to very good players. With a little time together and hopefully with injuries in the past (a big if...very big if), this has the potential to become one of the top 6-8 lines in the league. 2009 should be a year of getting to know one another and hopefully by 2010 this group should be in full attack mode. I am very high on this group.

Not so high on the back-ups, but the management group has shown they can take unknowns and make them play up to their potential. Berger was a good pick-up, Ndukwe should be a little better and a good #7 guy. If Andrew Gardner can live up to his potential we will fill our biggest back-up need on the line - an OT. Fry, Murphy, and whoever else we bring in can fight for the 9/10 slots on the team. I have to admit I was hoping for Unger here due to his versatility and our injury history, but I suppose they think Berger is that guy right now.

Tight Ends
The team had great play from the TE in 2008 and there isn't anything that should stop Fasano and Martin from enjoying good years again. It will be nice to see the fight for the 3rd team between Haynos and Nalbone - and if they really produce Martin could see his spot on the team taken (especially since his contract is up this year). I see us signing Fasano if he plays well this year and if Nalbone and Haynos continue to progress we should be good here in 2010 as well.

Defensive Line
With Merling, Langford, Starks we have a solid group of DE's that will continue to improve and play together over the next few years. McDaniel, Wright, and Dotson add some depth and potential for 2009 and beyond, so little is needed over the next two years except for the young guys to keep improving. Both rookies were impressive at times in 2008 but also disappeared as well now and then - which I think is a symptom of getting worn down with the NFL game and the lengthier season. As they grow accostomed to this and with a full year of offseason program under their belts, I see the DE play only going up over the next few years. How well they can learn to rush the passer is the most critical issue with these guys.

Nose Tackle now becomes the area in most need of improvement going into the 2009 and 2010. Ferguson did a good not great job in 2008 but when he was off the field the interior of the defense was horrible. 2009 will be the testing ground for Solai and Cohen to prove they belong in the league and if one of them doesn't step up this season the entire defense will suffer. It just isn't feasable to think Ferguson can play more than 30-40 snaps a game for the entire year. Unfortunately I don't see it happening and I think the Fins are in for a long year up the middle against the running game. There are 3-4 studs coming out of college next year (McCoy or Cody - please let us get one of them) and this will be the #1 priority I think next year.

Linebackers
Just like the receiver group, the Dolphins have a good not great group of players here. 2008 showed us exactly what they can and cannot do. Porter played his heart out and was brilliant at times, but at his age he cannot do it alone and he was worn down and neutralized the last quarter of the year. Ayondele is a good run stuffer but has little speed and not a great deal of upside, Crowder is a tackling machine but makes few big plays, and Roth is a plugger that will never stop but is better suited as a situational guy. I think the disappointment here came from the back-ups - Anderson and Torbor had a chance to make an impact but failed to impress. I don't see 2009 being too much different except that Porter will probably play down a little and Roth might improve a little due to an additional year in the scheme. The X-factor here is Wake - if he can come in and take over Roth's spot and be a factor in the pass rush while still holding the line on the rush - we could see a big improvement out of the front 7 just due to his play (no double teams on Porter, Roth being used more efficiently, etc.).

I see Parcells and company focusing on the linebacking group in the 2010 draft just as they have done with OL/DL last year and WR/CB this year. Three or four guys will be drafted to compete and will be given every opportunity to displace Ayondele and possibly one of the two OLB spots. Linebacker is similar to the RB position on offense when it comes to rookies - very easy to make an impact right off the bat because so much is due to instinct and raw physical ability. I could see two new starters here in 2010 - hopefully becoming not just a good group of players but a group of players who make big plays.

Cornerbacks
What an up and down year for the team in 2008. Will Allen played well the entire year, but the rest of the group was a game by game adventure. Goodman admittedly played better down the stretch, but better meant above average, not great. Jason Allen and the assorted group of fringe players that played in the nickel and dime defenses were constantly abused by good passing teams (and even poor passing teams). Joey Thomas may have made an impact at the end of the year and bears some closer scrutiny, but all of these players will have a difficult time making the team this year. I expect either Smith or Davis to start with the other being on the nickel/dime team with Thomas. I'm happy with that top 4. I would love Surtain to come back and be the 5th guy - but that is just personal ;-)

2009 should be another tough year in pass defense as the rookies learn on the fly, but 2010 should lead to better times and I wouldn't be surprised if both of them are starting by then. I have a hard time imagining W. Allen being resigned and J. Allen will be lucky to be on the team this year. I see a lot more players coming in next year to compete as well for the 4th and 5th slots on the team. Just like the linebackers - hopefully 2010 will show improvement and more playmaking ability than the current group.

Safeties
Slow start to 2008 with a good not great finish. Again, the play was so poor at the start of the season everyone was excited that by the end of the year we were average at best. Bell was a good resigning and I look for him to keep his play at an above average level. Wilson is obviously the key here and if he can be the leader that Hill was, his much better physical abilities should improve this area of the team a great deal. There is some concern with him play FS, but I think the coaching can deal with that (and he has some experience already doing this).

It looks like the Dolphins are set here for starters over the next few years but competition for back-up and special teams roles will be fierce. Clemons will likely compete and make the team this year but this will be a year-by-year turnover unless they find a gem.

Special Teams
Again, just like a lot of the Dolphins team, this area was above average, not great. Both Carpenter and Fields show ability and the potential to improve, but I think unless Fields just kicks it into high gear his position will be challenged each year. If they do improve 2009 and 2010 should show some improvement. Coverage and blocking on kicks was possibly the worst area of the team over the past two years and must frustrate the coaches to no end. I can't think that picks like Hartline, Clemons, and some of the free agents soon to be brought in were made with improving this area. There is no way to go but up - right?

Kick returning ability is another area where the Dolphins must improve. Ginn and Bess do a very average job and it is another head-scratcher why Ginn isn't more of a force here. Improvement in 2009 must come from inside the team as no true kick returner was obtained. I think these two guys and a few others will get a chance in 2009 and if it doesn't happen a specialist from the draft or free agency will be brought in for 2010.

OVERALL
2009 is year two of the rebuilding process. Although a lot of TV types are predicting a fall back from the Dolphins (mainly due to their schedule), I think the Dolphins can contend for a playoff spot again. I like the character on the team and I have confidence the coaches are going to get more out of the second year players and will get the most out of the new rookies on the team.

The key to the team on offense will be how quickly they OLine develops as a unit and if one of the wide receivers can step up and make a few more big plays. The Wildcat will also be turned up a notch and I am looking forward to seeing what happens there. The key on defense will be how the rookie CB's take to the pro game and what type of play we get from the NT position. If either of those has a negative answer, the Phins will be closer to 8-8 rather than the playoffs.

Year 3 is really where I expect the team to come together. I expect the draft to yield up one of the big NT in the first round and then 2-3 linebackers (inside and outside) through the rest of the draft. I'd look for a OL, CB, WR, and possibly a kick returner to round out the draft selections in 2010. In free agency we might be looking for an experience CB, a blocking FB, and possibly a veteran QB if Pennington isn't resigned. Depending on Brown and Williams we might be looking to get a RB as well (although I really, really think Brown will be resigned).

Get younger. Get bigger. Get faster. Get better.

These are the things Parcells, Ireland, and Sporano have preached. We've seen this in the DL, the OL, the WR, the CB/S, and next year I think we will see this happen to the LB.

I give our draft a B (I would have liked to see Unger or a one of the other OL interior guys we liked) and love the Pat White pick. I think this year we will be between 8-8 and 10-6, with the possibility of going to the playoffs coming down to the last few games of the year. In 2010 I think the Dolphins will be one of the better teams in the league if Henne is the real deal, potentially willing 10-12 games and hopefully hosting a game or two in the playoffs.

Go phins!

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