I say we trade down acquire more picks. Because you will miss on some, and the more higher quality picks a team has. The more chances that gems will be found in this draft? Now do you guys agree with this assessment. Their are no sure picks in a draft. We can go back and look from year to year. Half the 1st round picks or more never pan out meaning reaching or almost reaching elite status at their prospective positions.

The draft is not THAT big of a crap shoot. If Ireland can come away with going back on our FIRST ROUND PICKS, Tannehill, Pouncey, Jared Odrick, Vontae Davis and Jake Long, then it's not THAT big of a crap shoot.

I say, don't trade down. Take the BPA and take your chances that he will NOT be a Drew Bledsoe, those are few and far in between.

Here are a list of who the no. 1 picks in the draft (although I acknowledge you are talking about the whole first round) have been

1936 Jay Berwanger Halfback
1937 Sam Francis Fullback
1938 Corbett Davis Fullback
1939 Ki Aldrich Center
1940 George Cafego Halfback
1941 Tom Harmon Halfback
1942 Bill Dudley Halfback
1943 Frank Sinkwich Halfback
1944 Angelo Bertelli Quarterback
1945 Charley Trippi Halfback
1946 Frank Dancewicz Quarterback
1947 Bob Fenimore Halfback
1948 Harry Gilmer Quarterback
1949 Chuck Bednarik Center/Linebacker
1950 Leon Hart End
1951 Kyle Rote Halfback
1952 Bill Wade Quarterback
1953 Harry Babcock End
1954 Bobby Garrett Quarterback
1955 George Shaw Quarterback
1956 Gary Glick Defensive back
1957 Paul Hornung Halfback
1958 King Hill Quarterback
1959 Randy Duncan Quarterback
1960 Billy Cannon Running back
1961 Tommy Mason Running back
1962 Ernie Davis Running back
1963 Terry Baker Quarterback
1964 Dave Parks Wide Receiver
1965 Tucker Frederickson Running back
1966 Tommy Nobis Linebacker
1967* Bubba Smith Defensive end
1968* Ron Yary Offensive tackle
1969* O. J. Simpson Running back
1970 Terry Bradshaw Quarterback
1971 Jim Plunkett Quarterback
1972 Walt Patulski Defensive end
1973 John Matuszak Defensive end
1974 Ed Jones Defensive end
1975 Steve Bartkowski Quarterback
1976 Lee Roy Selmon Defensive end
1977 Ricky Bell Running back
1978 Earl Campbell Running back
1979 Tom Cousineau Linebacker Bills
1980 Billy Sims Running back
1981 George Rogers Running back
1982 Kenneth Sims Defensive end
1983 John Elway Quarterback
1984 Irving Fryar Wide receiver
1985 Bruce Smith Defensive end
1986** Bo Jackson Running back
1987 Vinny Testaverde
1988 Aundray Bruce Linebacker
1989 Troy Aikman Quarterback
1990 Jeff George*** Quarterback
1991 Russell Maryland Defensive tackle
1992 Steve Emtman Defensive tackle
1993 Drew Bledsoe Quarterback
1994 Dan Wilkinson Defensive tackle
1995 Ki-Jana Carter Running back
1996 Keyshawn Johnson Wide receiver
1997 Orlando Pace Offensive tackle
1998 Peyton Manning Quarterback
1999 Tim Couch Quarterback
2000 Courtney Brown Defensive end
2001 Michael Vick Quarterback
2002 David Carr Quarterback
2003 Carson Palmer Quarterback
2004 Eli Manning Quarterback
2005 Alex Smith Quarterback
2006 Mario Williams Defensive end
2007 JaMarcus Russell Quarterback
2008 Jake Long Offensive Tackle
2009 Matthew Stafford Quarterback
2010 Sam Bradford Quarterback
2011 Cam Newton Quarterback
2012 Andrew Luck Quarterback

The later you go, the more you recognize the names of course but although there have been a few misses, there have been far more successes.

Now I acknowledge that this is no. 1 but I hardly think each draft is confined to only one or two good players.

And also remember, the same guys who you want so desperately to deal for in free agency were ONCE IN THE DRAFT THEMSELVES.

Look at our last 5 1st round picks Jake Long very good often injured Not worth the overall #1 pick in 2008 I think. Next Vontae Davis traded last year has been a bust so far Surely not a good pick for this team. Next Jared Odrick hurt his 1st year 11 sacks last 2 years not a dominant player yet or elite however that could change the jury is still out on him. Next Mike Pouncey a very solid pick who if healthy make some pro bowls, and all pro teams real soon a very good solid pickup. Lastly Ryan Tannehill last year with limited talent he was above average will only get better. Big, strong, fast with a good arm if he improves like he should then we will be a good team if not then Matt Moore is in the wings waiting. Tannehill it's still too early too tell, but he seems like a good pick so far. Their you have it our last 5 1st round picks out of those 5 how would you say are good or very good. Maybe 2 out of the 3. The rest are still trying to over come injuries, and grow up some I think.

Finshady Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Look at our last 5 1st round picks Jake Long very
> good often injured Not worth the overall #1 pick
> in 2008 I think. Next Vontae Davis traded last
> year has been a bust so far Surely not a good pick
> for this team. Next Jared Odrick hurt his 1st
> year 11 sacks last 2 years not a dominant player
> yet or elite however that could change the jury is
> still out on him. Next Mike Pouncey a very solid
> pick who if healthy make some pro bowls, and all
> pro teams real soon a very good solid pickup.
> Lastly Ryan Tannehill last year with limited
> talent he was above average will only get better.
> Big, strong, fast with a good arm if he improves
> like he should then we will be a good team if not
> then Matt Moore is in the wings waiting.
> Tannehill it's still too early too tell, but he
> seems like a good pick so far. Their you have it
> our last 5 1st round picks out of those 5 how
> would you say are good or very good. Maybe 2 out
> of the 3. The rest are still trying to over come
> injuries, and grow up some I think.

I'm not sure how you are defining a successful pick or a bust Finshady.

I mean if Pouncey is going to go to a few pro bowls and that's only a "solid" pick then I think your expectations are too high.

You can't get a hall of famer in the first round every year.


Jake Long didn't turn out to be that all time great we'd hoped but that wasn't a talent issue it was due to injuries. Its not that we wouldn't have been better off taking Matt Ryan. Clearly we would have. But Long went to 4 pro bowls in 4 years here and was the best LT in the league for 3 of those seasons. He's hardly a bust.

Vontae Davis didn't turn out to be a pro bowler but he was a starter from day one and our best CB for the 3 years he was here. Not a home run but considering he was a late 1st round pick, not a miss either. He was good enough to net a 2nd round pick in return after 3 years as a starter in Miami.

Odrick is the closest thing to a bust, and even he's been decent.

Pouncey might be the best center in the league right now.

Tannehill is a work in progress but the indications are favorable for him.



For me, a guy like Vernon Gholston is a bust. I just don't think we have any guys in the Ireland/Parcells era that fit that definition.

our main problems have not been in the 1st round (though we've not been great there, just OK) but in the 2d and 3d and 4th rounds where good nfl teams are built. I mean, Ireland has been an embarrassment in those rounds (do I really need to list the busts? pat white, pat turner, mike engew, dan thomas, clyde gates, aj eeds, and to a lesser extent, john jerry).
when you consider this, maybe acquiring more 2d, 3d, and 4th rounders isn;t just a good idea......

________________________________________________________
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

This is a deep draft some good player throughout, we can afford to draft down.

I hope we get down.

Finshady Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I say we trade down acquire more picks. Because
> you will miss on some, and the more higher quality
> picks a team has. The more chances that gems
> will be found in this draft? Now do you guys
> agree with this assessment. Their are no sure
> picks in a draft. We can go back and look from
> year to year. Half the 1st round picks or more
> never pan out meaning reaching or almost reaching
> elite status at their prospective positions.

********************************************************

Again, ONLY if a guy isn't there for the taking that Ireland has big kudos on. If not, then do what one can to move down and pick up extra picks.

No, there are no sure picks, but a first rounder, a high percentage of the time, will work out.

If Miami is able to get a trading partner, more than likely all Miami will get is a 3rd rounder (if they are lucky) and a lower round pick.

Is Lane Johnson worth trading up? Is he that much better than Watson, Armstead, Jones, Long? guys we might land in the second plus the 12 pick or drop down and get another second?


Not sure he is proven. Armstead was impressive athletically

jlyell13 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is Lane Johnson worth trading up? Is he that much
> better than Watson, Armstead, Jones, Long? guys we
> might land in the second plus the 12 pick or drop
> down and get another second?
>
>
> Not sure he is proven. Armstead was impressive
> athletically


If we could move up for lane at the cost of a 3rd is probably worth it.


Armstead is a very intriguing prospect.

If you watch his film his athleticism is phenomenal and he obliterates his level of competition, even as a jr.

The question is, "does that translate to dominance at the NFL level?"

Vernon Ghoulston...lol that made me chuckle. You know....cuz its the Jests.

More Picks , betters our chances of drafting starters and playmakers. Jimmy Johnson words of wisdom. Arguably the best at drafting . He's picked more HOF players in the span of 20 yrs then anyone I know.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!

While I love Lane Johnson, I would hate to give up #42 (or 54) and #12 to get him.

Maybe a trade down to take a shot at two of these players....

Tyler Eifert, Menelik Watson, Tank Carradine.

It seems we will have to trade up to the #4-6 range to land LJ. Not much chance he falls much further.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

I tend to disagree eesti, Lane Johnson is the 4th/5th rated O-lineman in this draft, there's a real good chance that either he or J Cooper (OG) will be there at 12, hopefully Ireland doesn't panic and sits tight.

I've also read that Philbin and company are content to let Martin play LT, not sure how anything could change in the last month on that front. I think they're gonna see what they can get in the draft in the way of a LT/RT, and if not, a cap casualty, fill in RT will come available later in the summer (hell it might still be Winston right after the draft)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2013 04:39PM by dolphaholic.

I wonder if 4/5 O-lineman have ever gone in the top 10 before? We need a QB or 2 to sneak in there and we'll be set without moving up.

As far as Winston goes, I just think they want to keep their options open going into the draft, if no one falls to us and he's still available, i'll bet we sign him after the draft.

Another side note, not sure Ireland/Ross are gonna drum up a lot of votes on the stadium renovations with trading a bunch of high picks on another O-lineman in April. Drafting one at 12 is one thing, trading away multiple picks is another (not saying this vote is gonna steer this draft, but it has to be in the back of their minds).

I think even if two QB's go in the top 10, there will still be 4 lineman off the board as well.

KC - OT
Jax OT, PR or QB
Oak - QB or DT or PR
Phi - OT or QB or PR
Det - CB or OT
Cle - CB or PR or OG
AZ - OT or PR
Buf - OT or WR or QB
NYJ - WR or QB or PR
Ten - PR or WR
SD - OT or OG or WR
Mia ?????

The other issue is teams trading up to land a LT or QB.

2 DT's, 1 PR, 3 OT's, 1 OG, 2 QB's will make up the top 10 IMO.

Teams always take Qb's in the top 10. More often than not it happens no matter the QB grades.

QB's taken in the top 12 picks....

2012 - 3
2011 - 4
2010 - 1
2009 - 2
2008 - 1
2007 - 1
2006 - 3
2005 - 1
2004 - 3
2003 - 2
2002 - 2

You would have to go back to 2000 to find a draft with no QB's in the top 12. It was for Chad Pennington at 18. 1996. 1997 & 1991 were the only other years with no top 12 QB in recent history.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

draft is not a crap shoot if you are good at identifying talent. you think the teams that consistently draft well are just doing so by blind luck?

________________________________________________________
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

dolphaholic Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wonder if 4/5 O-lineman have ever gone in the
> top 10 before?

2010: Trent Williams, Russell Okung and Anthony Davis in the top 11.

2009: Jason Smith, Andre Smith & Eugene Monroe in the top 8.

2002: Mike Williams, Bryant McKinney & Levi Jones in the top 10.

I can't find any drafts in recent years with more than 3 OL in the top 10.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers