Yesterday sent a clear message. In some of my recent posts, I had mentioned that fans had to be ready for good players being let go, because they don't fit the schemes of the new coaching staff. The Philbin/Sherman/Coyle systems are really different than what Parcells believed in. And there are a number of players on the roster that may not fit those systems, even though they are good players. It's going to take time to turn the whole roster into one that Philbin wants.

You also have to consider how some good players fit in the cap structure, both now and in 2014 and beyond.

The big question you have to think about is, "is this guy part of the plan in 2014?" If the answer is no, then that guy is in trouble. Kevin Burnett and Karlos Dansby are good players. But, Dansby was due over $11M in 2014, and Burnett was due $7M. While good, neither are good enough to justify that kind of money. So, both guys are gone. We did an overhaul at the LB position, when folks didn't consider that a need. We brought in younger guys, smaller than the Parcells' model for the position, and guys who can run and rush the passer.

So, who else is not part of the plan for 2014? These are guys to consider, who could be in danger in the next few days.

WR Davone Bess- not under contract for 2014. Productive, but is limited to the slot position, and not a red zone threat. Armando Salguero says he continues to hear about Miami's interest in Brandon Gibson. If Gibson is signed, Bess is likely gone, which would save $2.5M.

OG Richie Incognito- not under contract for 2014. Counts more than $5M against the cap today, would save $4.3M if cut. He had a Pro Bowl season. But, he's bigger and not as athletic as this team wants. I kind of think he's safe for now, but I thought the same thing about Burnett.

K Dan Carpenter- not under contract for 2014. Would save $2.7M if cut.

DT Paul Soliai- not under contract for 2014. Counts $7.9M against the cap, and would save $6.3M if cut. Not a classic 4-3 DT, and he comes off the field in passing situations. If the team moves Jared Odrick inside, why would you pay Soliai this kind of money.

DT Randy Starks- I am only listing him because he isn't under contract for 2014. He hasn't signed his franchise tender yet. Ultimate, I think they get a longer term contract done with him.

DE/DT Jared Odrick- He was drafted as a 3-4 DE. He's not a good enough pass rusher to stay at DE in the 4-3. There are no cap savings to cutting him. So, I don't think he's in danger. But, I do think he could be moved to DT, which means trouble for Soliai.

LB Koa Misi- there is some buzz that he is being moved to DE. He's not under contract for 2014. I could see him getting a contract extension. But, if not, he's in danger. And if he moves to DE, it sets off the dominoes that endanger Paul Soliai.

CB Richard Marshall- this regime signed him, so they obviously like what he brings to the table. But, he was injured all season, and would save $3.5M if cut.

CB Dmitri Patterson- He's due $4.6M, but with no guaranteed money. So, he could be cut at no cost. But, he hasn't been yet, when that seems like something of an obvious move. Maybe Coyle really likes him. I think he's a candidate to get a restructured deal, maybe giving him some guaranteed money, but lowering his cap number. He's also in danger of being cut.

I expect more signings in free agency. And that will likely mean more cutting. But, don't be surprised if it's at the expense of some good players, like Bess and Soliai.

I could be wrong but IMO, I don't think what Odrick does has any effect on Soliai. If Odrick moves to tackle, it would most likely be as a 3 technique (one gap). I think he would replace Tony McDaniel in the rotation and only replace Solia in passing situations as he did last year. We still need Soliai as a 2-gap player. Odrick doesn't have the size to be a two gap player.

The only thing I wonder about is our DT's age. They will both be 30 in December but who knows what Ireland has up his sleeve at this point? Tim Bowens was done at 30. Jason Ferguson was pretty much done at 34.

I am thinking that we keep either Patterson or Marshall but not both. The smart move would be to keep Patterson until teams have filled their needs at CB and then restructure when there no demand for him...assuming we keep him.

I hear Miami was in talks with Chris Houston but he may resign with Detroit. Obviously we are in the market for a top CB.

I think we have around 7 mil in dead cap space for Dansby and Burnett. We would add another 2.3 mil to the pot by releasing Marshall. Dan Carpenter would be a good choice as he would only count 300k. Bess is another good choice (-750k). Incognito would count 1 mil against the cap if released.

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“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

That is the point about Soliai not necessarily fitting. A 4-3 defense doesn't require anyone to be a two-gap player. It depends how it's implemented, but for the most part, a 4-3 uses one gap techniques up front.

If Odrick moves inside, they would have about $19M committed to 3 defensive tackles. And Soliai is not under contract for 2014. Unless he signs an extension that lowers his cap number, he is in danger.

Part of why McDaniel was brought here was that he could be a rotational 3-4 DE, and could slide inside in pass rush situations. He didn't fit in the new scheme. So, Odrick isn't going to take his role, because his role wasn't a fit in this scheme. McDaniel barely played in 2012.

damn mark, you should start your own blog. that's more insightful than the stuff I read from omar and armondo

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The beatings will continue until morale improves.

I'd like to think we'd at least try to trade some of these guys instead of cutting them. bess should get us a 4th or 5th. Solia at least a 2d. But I agree with eetsi, I don't see us letting solia go, that would be a mistake.

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The beatings will continue until morale improves.

It all depends on how you want to run the 4-3. Some teams will use one DT as a 2-gap player. But, the whole point of the 4-3 is to use one-gap players. 2-gap players are hard to find. It's why 3-4 NTs are so valuable. That's part of the advantage in going to a 4-3, because you only need one-gap DTs, and they are easier to find.

It's fine to talk about the technical stuff, but it's really this simple. Until Soliai is under contract for 2014, he's in danger. When they commit to him as being part of the long term plan, then I'll think he's safe. Until then, he represents a huge cap savings if cut. And in the 4-3, he is much more easily replaced.

I'm more into football players (like Devon Bess) than guys that are so system-centric they only "fit" in narrow roles. Big Paul is also a football player and BOTTOM LINE there's no way we put guys like Bess and Soliai on the street.

In addition Richie was the 2nd best player on the OL last year and bailed soLong out so many times it was laughable. We're not putting Incognito on the street either. Ain't gonna happen.

Odrick needs to find a way to make some impact. According to many he's a "freaky athlete" but that hasn't translated into "wow factor" on the field. If the staff doesn't see him being a major factor then I could see Ireland engineering a trade because Odrick is viable that way.

BigNastyFish Wrote:
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> I'm more into football players (like Devon Bess)
> than guys that are so system-centric they only
> "fit" in narrow roles. Big Paul is also a football
> player and BOTTOM LINE there's no way we put guys
> like Bess and Soliai on the street.
>

What do you think would happen with Bess if we sign Brandon Gibson? Why are we even talking with Brandon Gibson?

System fit is so important in the NFL. It doesn't matter how talented a guy is, if he is a poor system fit, the talent is wasted.

What are some current teams that run a successfull 4-3, one gap system?

Soliai will also cost us 1.575 mil against the cap if released...and we are going into the season with Odrick and Starks as the starters? I don't see it. It doesn't make sense to give someone a 12.5 mil franchise tag and then turn around 2 years later while they are still playing great and cut them b/c they are going to make 7.8 mil.

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“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

Bess has been an ideal role player and a total professional. The kids work underneath is as good anyone in the league -- he's consistent and shows up on every play. So regardless of who else they sign @WR that shouldn't impact Bess IMO. If they dump him then I'd lose a LOT of respect for this regime.

You don't normally pay 3.5 mil to 4th WR's.

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“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

Given the state of the league Bess is a good value IMO. Let's put it this way, it would cost us a hell of a lot more to go out and sign a free agent replacement for him. The other choice is a scrub or rookie. I don't find those options as attractive as sticking with a proven pro who's done everything RIGHT for the organization and has a consistent productive game. There has to be some degree of loyalty to your core players or your "team" is nothing more than a collection of money-grubbing mercenaries.

That's fine. I agree in principle with the loyalty theory but the bottom line is you have to make the big plays if you want the big money. That doesn't mean we have to pay him like a starter. He can stay. Just restructure to a salary that is commensurate with your role on the team.

Say we draft someone like Stedman Bailey who comes in and beats Bess out of his job and continues to actually score TD's and make big plays from the slot. Bess should take a pay cut down to something like 1.5 mil a year.

But then again, wouldn't both parties be better off in a trade scenario where Bess can be that starting slot receiver and we get a draft pick. I don't think he wants to ride the pine any more than we want to pay himn 3.5 mil to do it.

I would rather draft someone as opposed to signing Brandon Gibson.

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“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

Quite frankly I think we have FAR MORE CRITICAL PROBLEMS than worrying about replacing one of our success stories/productive players like Bess.

Lets focus on the OL, DB and TE before we invest a ton of resources rebuilding what's already been built.

That's my .02.

Last, I would just say -- it's been proven that teams who rely on "building through free agancy" are losers in the end. It doesn't work as a primary cure. And we're playing a bit too close to the overload point IMO.

Bottom line -- the NFL is a draft dominated league. And you cannot solve consistent inferior drafting with big dollar FA signings...

So I'm a bit concerned we're going to overspend and wind up having significant issues .a few years down the road. But hey -- that's the proven history of this team.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2013 07:57AM by BigNastyFish.

eesti Wrote:
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It doesn't make sense to give someone a
> 12.5 mil franchise tag and then turn around 2
> years later while they are still playing great and
> cut them b/c they are going to make 7.8 mil.


This.

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The beatings will continue until morale improves.

BigNastyFish Wrote:
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> Last, I would just say -- it's been proven that
> teams who rely on "building through free agancy"
> are losers in the end. It doesn't work as a
> primary cure. And we're playing a bit too close to
> the overload point IMO.
>
> Bottom line -- the NFL is a draft dominated
> league. And you cannot solve consistent inferior
> drafting with big dollar FA signings...
>
> So I'm a bit concerned we're going to overspend
> and wind up having significant issues .a few years
> down the road. But hey -- that's the proven
> history of this team.

Very true but we had 10 medicore starters that needed to be replaced by players that fit the new coaching system.

We still need to nail this draft to find the playmakers. The problem is that the way the off season is shaping up, we will only be drafting linemen and maybe a few CB's in the draft.

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“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

Ya know, historically the league has not been kind to coaches who need to retool like 50% of the roster to implement their "system." For example, take a look at what Harbaugh did in San Fran -- it seems he was able to get the existing roster ramped up pretty good, yes?

Now I realize the talent Harbaugh inherited was superior to what Philbin inherited, and I know we need playmakers on both sides of the ball -- I'm just concerned we're "solving problems" AND creating new ones at the same time...

I'm just really skeptical about fixing all out past draft mistakes and free agency blunders with another round of cutting players loose (who turn around and produce on other teams) while attempting to rebuild through free agency...

Whatever.

if this crop is a bust, ireland is a goner, and the new guy will probably want a say as HC in which case philbin could be a goner, and then we'll have a new system, and need new players. so it is critical this works out or we have another 5 years of hell in store....

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The beatings will continue until morale improves.

BNF, that's what I've been saying all along. Maybe someone will listen now that you've said it.

If this crop is a bust this franchise is OVER for an indefinite period of time...

So this process we're witnessing is really high risk IMO.

Reminds me... it's better to be lucky than good. And this franchise has had nothing but bad luck for a long, long time.

Are we really witnessing the start of something great?

I want to hope so but I don't believe so.

LOL.

BigNastyFish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Given the state of the league Bess is a good value
> IMO. Let's put it this way, it would cost us a
> hell of a lot more to go out and sign a free agent
> replacement for him. The other choice is a scrub
> or rookie. I don't find those options as
> attractive as sticking with a proven pro who's
> done everything RIGHT for the organization and has
> a consistent productive game. There has to be some
> degree of loyalty to your core players or your
> "team" is nothing more than a collection of
> money-grubbing mercenaries.

Does Bess generate chunk yardage plays? Does Bess score TDs? Is Bess effective anywhere but the slot? Is he under contract for 2014?

The answer to all 4 questions is "no." No one should be surprised if he is replaced.

Oi Va...nevermind.

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“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers