Not really sure about this...but an idea came to me...

Jarius Byrd is a Free Agent.

I know we need a corner....but....if we did draft Ezekial Ansah...or a DE that would put pressure on the QB

If we signed Byrd and paired him with Jones we would have the best pair of safeties in the league...

Byrd is a playmaker and fits Irelands criteria.

This might make it easier to fill the other corner spot with Marshall/Carrol/Wilson/FA.

The other bonus is that we weaken a division rival which could count for two W's.

ok....attack away!

Not a bad idea at all.

We've got $50mill in cap space...I'd like to see us target 3 "impact" FA's.

WR
LG
FS/CB

Byrd would be a good pick up.

Like I said in that post. It's just an added bonus. Not a reason to sign them. If you have two guys at the same position that are equal and one is playing for a divisional opponent....You mean to tell me you don't think GM's are taking this into consideration

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

I don't think weakening opponents should be the primary goal....but it certainly adds value to a transaction.

Look at how the Welker deal impacted us and the Pats.

I completely agree with you!

If the Pats were looking to sign a WR....which they are....


Asuming we want and sign Jennings and they don't get Wallcae ( for whatever reason.

And it comes down to Hartline or Bowe?

What hurts us more?

Them signing Hartline away from us hurts more than them signing Bowe.


As you said...it should not be a significant strategy....but without question it has ancillary benefits and most certainly is considered.

That is why teams don't trade within division.

One player that has developed into a pretty good play maker is Rob Ninkovich. A former Miami DE/OLB who was signed by NE. He is starting for NE while we let him walk after the 2008 season in favor of Charlie Anderson, Matt Roth and Quentin Moses. Not a good move.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

realist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I know we need a corner....but....if we did draft
> Ezekial Ansah...or a DE that would put pressure on
> the QB

RESPONSE: We pretty much aren't that great in defensing the run either. With Kawaan Short, you get a rare thing in pro football, a pass rushing nose tackle who is murder on the run.

We were dominant in stopping the run for the first half of the season. I am not entirely sure on what happened those few games that we got gashed (NE, Ten & Buf) but some say it was because of injuries to our front 7. Soliai, Starks, Burnett, Misi and Dansby were injured at times. We were ranked 13th in run defense to finish the season.

At one point we were ranked 1st in rush defense. This is our teams strength and adding a DT high in the draft is probably a luxury at this point. We need to resign Starks. We definitely could use better depth as McDaniel is a FA as well. It remains to be seen if Kheeston Randall can do the job.

Just curious because I am not that familiar with him but...If Short is so rare why are so many DT's ranked ahead of him?

Star Lotulelei, Johnathan Hankins, Sheldon Richardson, Johnathon Jenkins and possibly Bennie Logan all are ranked ahead of him on most sites.

One site has Short going to the Falcons at 30.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

eesti Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Just curious because I am not that familiar with
> him but...If Short is so rare why are so many DT's
> ranked ahead of him?
>
> Star Lotulelei, Johnathan Hankins, Sheldon
> Richardson, Johnathon Jenkins and possibly Bennie
> Logan all are ranked ahead of him on most sites.
>
> One site has Short going to the Falcons at 30.


Are those defensive tackles the type who are 4-3 tackles. Kawaan is more of what would be a 3-4 defensive tackle, a nose tackle. Maybe, it's because most teams seem to play 4-3 nowadays.

They say Star can do it all.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

Philbin's ideal is to build through the draft. So, we're not going to be filling a lot of positions in free agency. And while we do have $48M in cap space, a lot is going to be eaten up in just re-signing some of our own guys. I think there will be room to sign two big $ free agents. And I would bet on pass rusher and WR. Both of those positions are extremely difficult to fill with rookies, if you want an impact in year one. It's much easier to find a rookie FS to make an impact than it is a rookie pass rusher. And honestly, you may have two decent options at FS already on the roster in Richard Stevens and Jimmy Wilson. And Coyle had a history of turning safety rejects into solid contributors (Chris Crocker) in Cincy. As much as Byrd makes sense, and he does, I doubt they will spend a lot of money at the position.

Short is rare at DT because he consistently breaks thru and pressures the QB. Richardson from MIZZOU does the same. Other DT/NT are rated hugher because they are better at stopping the run require consistend double teamiing etc. But Short and Richardson are excellent at manipulating gaps in the offense and getting prssure on the qb.

If we can get consistent pressue from the middle and opposit end our defense could become a top 5 D. We couldalso help our corners out w/ more pass pressure.

Bottom line Dolphanmark is that even if I accepted your premise that WR and DLs are positions that NOT amenable to rookies having immediate impact, which I don't, I still don't trust Ireland to shop in the free agency market.

Moreover, if those positions are so crucial and important, do you really trust someone some other team is willing to let go.

Maybe to the outside world, Jake Long may be a valuable free agent acquisition, a pro bowl left tackle, but ask the people on this board why are they willing to let him go.

There's always a story and usually sane front offices don't let critical players go simply because they are in a free agent year.

mizzou15 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Short is rare at DT because he consistently breaks
> thru and pressures the QB. Richardson from MIZZOU
> does the same. Other DT/NT are rated hugher
> because they are better at stopping the run
> require consistend double teamiing etc. But Short
> and Richardson are excellent at manipulating gaps
> in the offense and getting prssure on the qb.
>
> If we can get consistent pressue from the middle
> and opposit end our defense could become a top 5
> D. We couldalso help our corners out w/ more pass
> pressure.


I like Short. He's a little like Warren Sapp in that he's right around 300 lbs but he's disruptive in the passing and run games.

I think he's a good fit for our defensive scheme.

Presuming that we don't re-sign Starks, and that Fisher, Ansah, Milliner and Jordan are all off the table when we pick, I'd be fine with taking him.

He's going to be a good NFL DT. And the draft is all about finding good football players.

I'm a little surprised I hadn't seen anyone championing him over the past month...at least until this week.

ChyrenB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bottom line Dolphanmark is that even if I accepted
> your premise that WR and DLs are positions that
> NOT amenable to rookies having immediate impact,
> which I don't, I still don't trust Ireland to shop
> in the free agency market.
>
> Moreover, if those positions are so crucial and
> important, do you really trust someone some other
> team is willing to let go.
>
> Maybe to the outside world, Jake Long may be a
> valuable free agent acquisition, a pro bowl left
> tackle, but ask the people on this board why are
> they willing to let him go.
>
> There's always a story and usually sane front
> offices don't let critical players go simply
> because they are in a free agent year.

**************************************************

That isn't necessarily true, Chyren.

Not every available FA has a problem as to why they are free. As in quite a few of the cases this year, i.e., Wallace, Byrd....their salary is what is putting them out there. Pitt would love to have Wallace back, but he will cost more than what the Steelers are willing to pay. Byrd is Buffalo's best player; why would they want to let him go, except for the money? They may end up franchising him.

Others? Yes, you are correct. They quite often are damaged goods. Look at Long. Still a good, not great, LT, but will be asking for more than he is worth. However, that won't necessarily stop another team from signing him to the big bucks. Miami knows better; they won't do that. They'll pay him a good salary, but not the kind of money he wants.

captkoi Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ChyrenB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Bottom line Dolphanmark is that even if I
> accepted
> > your premise that WR and DLs are positions that
> > NOT amenable to rookies having immediate
> impact,
> > which I don't, I still don't trust Ireland to
> shop
> > in the free agency market.
> >
> > Moreover, if those positions are so crucial and
> > important, do you really trust someone some
> other
> > team is willing to let go.
> >
> > Maybe to the outside world, Jake Long may be a
> > valuable free agent acquisition, a pro bowl
> left
> > tackle, but ask the people on this board why
> are
> > they willing to let him go.
> >
> > There's always a story and usually sane front
> > offices don't let critical players go simply
> > because they are in a free agent year.
>
> **************************************************
>
>
> That isn't necessarily true, Chyren.
>
> Not every available FA has a problem as to why
> they are free. As in quite a few of the cases
> this year, i.e., Wallace, Byrd....their salary is
> what is putting them out there. Pitt would love
> to have Wallace back, but he will cost more than
> what the Steelers are willing to pay. Byrd is
> Buffalo's best player; why would they want to let
> him go, except for the money? They may end up
> franchising him.
>
> Others? Yes, you are correct. They quite often
> are damaged goods. Look at Long. Still a good,
> not great, LT, but will be asking for more than he
> is worth. However, that won't necessarily stop
> another team from signing him to the big bucks.
> Miami knows better; they won't do that. They'll
> pay him a good salary, but not the kind of money
> he wants.


Something like TEN NFL teams are already over next years cap. Another 6 or so have less than 10 mill in cap space.

That's half the league with little or NO cap room.

They are going to have to let talented people walk in order to sign draft picks and fill more pressing needs.

Not every player in free agency is Jake Long, Jake Grove or Gabril Wilson.

Some of them are Richie Incognito, Randy Starks, Karlos Dansby, Kevin Burnett, Matt Moore, etc.

I'd just say this about Ireland whether you believe pick ups like Wilson and Grove are his fault or Parcells...he hasn't repeated those mistakes since Tuna left town.

His misses have been on no-consequence rolls of the dice like Chad Johnson.

ChyrenB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bottom line Dolphanmark is that even if I accepted
> your premise that WR and DLs are positions that
> NOT amenable to rookies having immediate impact,
> which I don't,

Over the last 4 years combined, a total of 3 rookie WRs have topped 900 yards receiving in their first season.

And I never said anything about DL not having immediate impact. I said "pass rushers." In a typical year, only about 2 rookies make an immediate impact rushing the passer. 2011 jumps out as an anomaly, with 7 rookies contributing at least 7 sacks. But, look at the other recent seasons. 2008, no rookies had more than 5 sacks. 2009, only two rookies topped 4.5 sacks. 2010, only 2 topped 5 sacks. And 2012, only one rookie had more than 6 sacks.

When you consider how many WRs and pass rushers teams draft, the success rate for impact rookies is extremely low. And logic tells you why. Most college WRs are not asked to run a full route tree. And the routes they do run are not run to the same depths as NFL routes, which means having to re-learn all of their step counts that have been ingrained in their brains. They rarely face press coverage. And they aren't asked to read defenses and run option routes. Their rookie year has a huge learning curve. Pass rushers get by with their speed in college. In the NFL, they have to learn technique, and how to set up blockers. Those two positions take grooming.

Truth I'm for sitting and waiting for Short in the 2nd round. I think we will have better choices in the first. My gut is telling me he will be there for us in rnd 2.

I think the same thing Mizzou. I think he will be there for us. We have a high second like no. 48 overall don't we?

Those are all very valid points...

the one thing though...is as much as Philbin would prefer the draft and has the luxury of time...Ireland does not...he needs to impact the roster immediately....so I see us getting a lot of fresh faces.

That $46 million is going to allow us to sign our key guys and bring in at least 3 new starters.

We have guys on the roster that can replace some of our FA's which is going to allow us to target a couple high priced guys.

It will be fun to watch how this plays out.

Even if we sign Hartline, Starks, Fasano and our new rookies we will still have around 29 mil to spend. Our other lower tier FA's are not going to eat up that much money...Garner, McDaniel etc

Long, Moore and Bush are most likely gone. We could resign Clemons but it won't be for a lot of money. Seam Smith should walk as well. We have seen what he has to offer and it's only inconsistency.

Ireland said it was planned to have this much cap space. I doubt it was a plan to just sit on a surplus when we have so many needs. Not when his job is on the line.

Ireland even admitted it was time to add play makers. Something Chris Clemons is not. There are at least 3 play making FS in FA this year. I wouldn't rule out adding one if they are not franchised. You have to shop where there is a market. This year it is WR, FS and OT as well as a chance to land a couple other positions....G, etc.

If you're going to hand out a FA contract it had better be for a play maker. You don't want to get stuck paying for years for a guy just to fill a spot.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers

realist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Those are all very valid points...
>
> the one thing though...is as much as Philbin would
> prefer the draft and has the luxury of
> time...Ireland does not...he needs to impact the
> roster immediately....so I see us getting a lot of
> fresh faces.
>
> That $46 million is going to allow us to sign our
> key guys and bring in at least 3 new starters.
>
> We have guys on the roster that can replace some
> of our FA's which is going to allow us to target a
> couple high priced guys.
>
> It will be fun to watch how this plays out.

************************************************

What makes you think Philbin has the luxury of time? And how much time would that be?

If Ireland gets fired, Philbin could very well be right behind him. (Ref the posts on which would be fired first).

Yes, both of them, in reality, prefer the draft, but both have already stated that they are willing to look at every avenue available to them to improve this team. FA is first up.

We may have guys to replace the departing FAs, but the cupboard is pretty bare. The main line guys leave, and all Miami has to fight for the starter's role is backups, not potential starters. Can't do it that way, thus, FA is extremely important (along with signing some of our own guys, of course) then use the draft to fill in the holes that are still open.

eesti Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Even if we sign Hartline, Starks, Fasano and our
> new rookies we will still have around 29 mil to
> spend. Our other lower tier FA's are not going to
> eat up that much money...Garner, McDaniel etc
>

Out of the $48M, about $8M needs to be allocated for draft picks. Hartline is going to be in the $5-6M per year range. Starks is going to be in the $6-8M per year range (Soliai is making almost $8M this year, and he plays a ton fewer snaps than Starks). Fasano made $3M this year. Assuming he signs for about the same, that leaves about $23-24M. Veteran minimum is about $1M per year, so each other of those minor signings slowly chips away at what's left. Plus, you have to leave some room for yourself to make roster moves during the season.

Ireland will have to produce impact players THIS SPRING....by training camp if he hasn't managed to bring in playmakers they will begin the process of looking for his replacement.

Philbin is NOT on that short leash. Barring a regression, Philbin will be given 2 more seasons.

That is what makes me think he has the luxury of time. In the NFL 2 years is a luxury.

All true...but not all signings will have an equal impact on this year's salary Cap.

They have Capologists whose job it is to spread the money out over different years so you can pay more guys.

For example, Patrick Willis signed a 5 year $50 million contract which should be $10 mill....but some of those dollars are options and bonuses...so his Cap figure for 2012 was $6.2 mill, 2013 it will be $6.7 Mill., then in 2014 it jumps to $9.6 mill. So the highest paid linebacker in the NFL is counting for less than Dansby is since he is further into his contract.

Likewise, Starks, Smith who-ever...will be signed to deals that do not impact the CAP the way their contract avg. suggests.

Just throwing out a thought about New England, how would we like it if they drafted Keenan Allen or Corredelle Patterson in the late first round?

Not trying to restart the discussion about trying to "weaken" an opponent but no matter how you feel about that, you damn sure shouldn't draft in a way that results in the Patsies being STRENGTHENED in a critical area of your own need.

In other words, should you leave yourself vulnerable to the Patsies drafting in order to 'KEEP THE DOLPHINS WEAK.'

Example, would we like to be left in the position wherein it is the end of the first round of the draft and the Patsies are saying

............."Well, Patterson and Allen are on the board. We're pretty good at every position but we like those young studs. After us, Team X (either one of the SuperBowl teams or a team who will be drafting at the top of the second round) are certain to draft Keenan Allen.

Those stupid Dolphins are probably licking their chops getting ready to snatch up Patterson. Let's break their hearts and do our team some long run good at the same time and draft Patterson."

Meanwhile, we get the same ole Egnew type picks in the later rounds?????????

dolfanmark Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> eesti Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Even if we sign Hartline, Starks, Fasano and
> our
> > new rookies we will still have around 29 mil to
> > spend. Our other lower tier FA's are not going
> to
> > eat up that much money...Garner, McDaniel etc
> >
>
> Out of the $48M, about $8M needs to be allocated
> for draft picks. Hartline is going to be in the
> $5-6M per year range. Starks is going to be in the
> $6-8M per year range (Soliai is making almost $8M
> this year, and he plays a ton fewer snaps than
> Starks). Fasano made $3M this year. Assuming he
> signs for about the same, that leaves about
> $23-24M. Veteran minimum is about $1M per year, so
> each other of those minor signings slowly chips
> away at what's left. Plus, you have to leave some
> room for yourself to make roster moves during the
> season.


Basically you're just counting the high end of the contracts or adding a million or two to my estimates. I read that our rookie salary pool was close to 7 mil. It was 6.438 last year. It's not that big of a difference. I may have been a couple million too generous.

Paul Soliai signed a two year 12 mil deal. I doubt Ireland offers Starks 8 mil average when PS is making 6 average. Soliai is the big rare run stuffer and I think he is more valuable even if Starks gets more snaps. There were 15 other free agent DT's that graded ahead of Starks and that may drive his value down as well. Some of them graded out 5 times as high. If I know this so does Jeff Ireland and he does not overpay very often. Contract numbers are also more inflated in the later years as opposed to year one.

I also don't see Hartline getting offered more than 5. The 1 TD season and only having 1 good year in a contract year hurts his value.

Fasano already got his 2nd deal in 2010 which was 3 yr, 8.78mil. He may not even get that again due to a few things...

His producton has declined for 3 straight years.
His fit in this system (not a seam threat)
More productive/talented/faster TE's in the FA market

Hartline 5
Starks 6
Fasano 3
Rookie 7

That's 21 mil from 48 leaving 27 mil.

All I'm saying is we have plenty of room to make a big splash this year. Are you somehow disputing that or ?

Look at all the money we spent in 2008 and I don't think we had anywhere near 48 million in cap space.

QB Chad Pennington, QB Josh McCown, FB Boomer Grigsby, WR Ernest Wilford, TE Anthony Fasano, TE Sean Ryan, G Justin Smiley, DE/DT Randy Starks, NT Jason Ferguson, DE/OLB Reggie Torbor, ILB Akin Ayodele, ILB Charlie Anderson, CB Nathan Jones, S Chris Crocker, S Keith Davis.

Some were trades but that's still a pretty hefty number of additions to add the the salary cap.

.....................................................................................
“I'm here" You're welcome!" - Kenny Powers



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/30/2013 04:53AM by eesti.

Soliai made $4M last year, and is due $8M this year. He plays way fewer snaps than Starks. Do you think Starks is settling for 25% less than Soliai?

A top WR is going to cost us at least $8M, if it's Jennings. Bowe is going to be $10M. Wallace is going to be $11M.

Nate Garner made over $1M last year. Artis Hicks made over $2M. Ryan Cook made over $1M. When you start adding veterans to fill out the roster, cap money gets eaten up fast. I think we are looking at potentially two major signings, and one mid-level signing (think Marshall last season), and that's really that. Quite honestly, it'd be stupid to try to do more than that. Spending big money on free agents isn't the way to go, and it needs to be limited.