Of the 31 QB,s chosen in the first rd over the last ten years, only nine get a A grade... Accorind to Polian that means 70 percent or so of the QB's taken in the first rd in the last ten years, have not lived up to the hype about them....
How many players have the Dolphins missed on in the last 4 years in the 1st rd...
Jake Long, VOntae Davis, Jared Odrick and Mike Pouncey... I think we have been 100 percent in the first rd... The second and thirds are another story...lol...
SO please understand the difference in risk involved, and the likelyhood of success.. vs how well we have actually done picking players besides QB's in the first rd...

SOme years you get David Carr and Joey Harrington, or Jamarcus Russell and Brady QUinn. Other years you get Eli, Rivers and Big Ben... some years no QB's succeed out of the first rd, yet the hype is always the same...lol

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All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
Nietzsche



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/23/2012 11:42AM by Crowder52.

wait, at this point are you taking parcells' view on something as proof that it is correct? parcells wouldn't know a QB if he bit him on the ass (pat white)

________________________________________________________
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

berkeley223 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> wait, at this point are you taking parcells' view
> on something as proof that it is correct? parcells
> wouldn't know a QB if he bit him on the ass (pat
> white)


I am talking a conversation where Parcell and Polian made a concensus report together and agreed on what I posted above...
Polian also said, there is no doubt Tannehill is not worth a top ten pick...

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All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
Nietzsche

Ted Ginn Jr. ? Vernon Carey ? Oderick has injury problems, Jason Allen ? Out of the last 10 years The phins had 8 1st round picks. 4 out of 8 = 50% I think they could do better

RIck, Odrick was injured his rookie year, He played all year last year, with no problems, and had 6 sacks and 1 interception as a DE and DT... That is pretty strong for pick 28...Players are going to get injured, it happens, it is the NFL.....All of those other picks are how we use to fail at picking in rd 1, since Ireland has been involved we have been solid in the 1st rd... horrible in rd 2 and 3 under Ireland...

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All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
Nietzsche

Great...how many "A" grades did they give out to QB's selected in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th rounds?


NOBODY has ever said taking QB's in round 1 was a slam dunk. Only that that is where you find elite QB's so if you want one, that's where you shop.

OK, 5 out of 8 = 60.25% if I agree to Odrick

As Truth implied ... the relevant conmparison would be to rate how Miami did with a strategy of either selecting 2nd round QBs or spending second rounde draft picks to obtain a vet QB ... How does that rate with the success rate of other second round QB successes?

To be honest about it, Im not sure we had more than a couple of years where our selction was high enough to matter.

- Obviously with number one we could have, but I'm pretty okay with having taken Jake Long that year
- We passes on Quinn, who ended up being not so great after all.
- Our worst decision over all was passing on th echance to take Drew Breeze. Hindsight ... I also think Drew Breeze was made for the style offense they use, and we didn't at the time

I read somewhere that Polian listed out the players you take in the top 10 - score points, create turnovers, play critical role on defense and something else (honestly can't remember) - then said something like "and left tackle isn't one of those". I didn't see the bit with those two, but I'd have loved to have seen Parcells' face. I don't think Long was a bad pick, but in general Parcells is pompous and messed us over by implementing a decade-old approach to assembling a team.

What I don't get about Parcells is why he dumped on Miami because (so reported) that they kept henne playing QB.

He was supposed to be the top guy, did he not have influence to push his will, it sure seemed like it. Instead he dropped them like a hot potato and let the team die on the vine.

Just can't believe that he had no influence with ireland or sparano, or ross for that matter

Phinjim Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As Truth implied ... the relevant conmparison
> would be to rate how Miami did with a strategy of
> either selecting 2nd round QBs or spending second
> rounde draft picks to obtain a vet QB ... How does
> that rate with the success rate of other second
> round QB successes?
>
> To be honest about it, Im not sure we had more
> than a couple of years where our selction was high
> enough to matter.
>
> - Obviously with number one we could have, but I'm
> pretty okay with having taken Jake Long that year
> - We passes on Quinn, who ended up being not so
> great after all.
> - Our worst decision over all was passing on th
> echance to take Drew Breeze. Hindsight ... I also
> think Drew Breeze was made for the style offense
> they use, and we didn't at the time


It goes beyond that Jim.

Their review of 1st round qb's over the last ten years is good but it's incomplete and because it's incomplete it's being used by some to prop up he argument that you shouldn't risk top picks on qb's.

There are three ways to acquire a franchise qb:

1- through free agency. It's rare but it happens. Usually it's because the guy is old, coming off a serious injury or has MAJOR baggage. But there is usually a franchise type guy on the market every 2-4 years.

2- you can trade for a guy, but that requires a team willing to trade a talented young qb. This is also rare, but it happens once or twice a decade. Favre, hasslebeck, schaub all got traded.

3- you can draft one. On average there's about one franchise type qb in every draft. Sometimes there are 2 or 3 and sometimes there aren't any.

But your best chance of getting one is in the draft. And despite their 30% hit rate over the last decade the 1st round is still the best place to find them.

Over that same 10 year span ZERO 2nd rounders made the grade and only 1 third rounder. It gets worse from there the deeper into the draft you go.

A 30% hit rate on 1st round qb's seems like a good reason to avoid qb's in the 1st round until you compare that option to all the other ways to acquire a franchise qb.

Once you do that the script flips and you see that the first round is the single best place to look for a franchise qb.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/24/2012 01:22PM by THE Truth.

So if the first round is the best place to get a QB and we concede that.

And if even though that is true and the bust rate is still high among 1st rounders, as you say, Truth,


Then this year, we have Andrew Luck AND RGIII, who are certain not to be busts......

What are the odds Tannehill will be a bust, .....utilizing YOUR own reasoning?

Not saying I agree with it but just sayin.......

Truth,
What you dont understand, is the Dolphins can not afford to miss on a 1st rd QB this year... end of story.... And teams that draft alot of QB's in the first rd are not more successfull on avg, then the teams that wait to select the right QB in the first rd... There is a difference...

-----------------------------------------------------------------
All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
Nietzsche

Crowder52 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of the 31 QB,s chosen in the first rd over the
> last ten years, only nine get a A grade...
> Accorind to Polian that means 70 percent or so of
> the QB's taken in the first rd in the last ten
> years, have not lived up to the hype about
> them....
> How many players have the Dolphins missed on in
> the last 4 years in the 1st rd...
> Jake Long, VOntae Davis, Jared Odrick and Mike
> Pouncey... I think we have been 100 percent in the
> first rd... The second and thirds are another
> story...lol...
> SO please understand the difference in risk
> involved, and the likelyhood of success.. vs how
> well we have actually done picking players besides
> QB's in the first rd...
>
> SOme years you get David Carr and Joey Harrington,
> or Jamarcus Russell and Brady QUinn. Other years
> you get Eli, Rivers and Big Ben... some years no
> QB's succeed out of the first rd, yet the hype is
> always the same...lol

THe 'WORTH' of a pick is how he helps this team win. You call Long, Davis etc '100%' successful picks. Hate to tell ya but we are less than a .500 team with all those 'successful' picks. 10 'Succcessful' picks + No QB still = NO Success.

THE Truth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> If its Tannehill, fine. If its Weedon, fine. If
> they dont get that warm fuzzy feeling about any QB
> in this draft its ok to pass as well.
>
> But getting a franchise QB is priority numero uno
> for this front office today, tomorrow and everyday
> between now and the day they finally find one.
>

I agree, but i have heard you and many say that we should keeping taking a shot at a 1st rd QB until we find one, because that is your best place to find one based on what I see as a very unscientific theory.... That is foolish... What you said above is true... there is a difference

-----------------------------------------------------------------
All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
Nietzsche

KB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
THe 'WORTH' of a pick is how he helps this team
> win. You call Long, Davis etc '100%' successful
> picks. Hate to tell ya but we are less than a
> .500 team with all those 'successful' picks. 10
> 'Succcessful' picks + No QB still = NO Success.

And what makes you think we would have been any more successful without them... Missing on 1st rd picks makes it worse, then we are even now... What 1st rd QB that we could have gotten guarantees we would have been more successful in that span or won a play off game?

-----------------------------------------------------------------
All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
Nietzsche

Crowder52 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> THE Truth Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > If its Tannehill, fine. If its Weedon, fine.
> If
> > they dont get that warm fuzzy feeling about any
> QB
> > in this draft its ok to pass as well.
> >
> > But getting a franchise QB is priority numero
> uno
> > for this front office today, tomorrow and
> everyday
> > between now and the day they finally find one.
> >
>
> I agree, but i have heard you and many say that we
> should keeping taking a shot at a 1st rd QB until
> we find one, because that is your best place to
> find one based on what I see as a very
> unscientific theory....


Actually its not an "unscientific theory"....its a statistical analysis of the HISTORICAL data. That's actually the opposite of "unscientific".

Btw...that data is there for you to challenge with your own analysis...which I still eagerly await.



> That is foolish... What
> you said above is true... there is a difference

Foolish? not really. Extreme?? Certainly.

Of course you wouldn't pick one every year...its an exaggeration meant to illustrate the importance of finding that QB at any cost.

The reality is...for example...if we took tannehill or weedon in the first round this year we'd have to give them a chance to develop and prove their worth (or lack of it). that means its 3 years down the road before we'd be looking at having to consider another first round QB.

So its not really a matter of taking a QB in the first round every year...its more like churning through first round QB's every 2-3 years until you find a keeper.