this is all that matters. us winning is bad. was, sea, car winning is good. hopefully cleveland wins today. anyone know where we pick at this point? most important is getting ahead of cle and was and getting inside the top 10. hopefully that's still possible?

We should have lost. Those teams winning, and us losing, would have almost surely secured us a top 5 pick.

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"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

we need to get used to the idea of trading away a 2 or 3 this year and our first next year, plus another pick or player. that's the only way to get barkley or griffin and we need to come away with one of those guys. If we lost the last 3 we'd probably be able to select one without giving up anything, or at least keeping our 1st rounder next year. Still, you "true fans" are probably out celebrating this terrific win and will remember it all next decade, right?

I agree.

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"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

berkeley223 Wrote:
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> If we lost the last 3 we'd
> probably be able to select one without giving up
> anything, or at least keeping our 1st rounder next
> year. Still, you "true fans" are probably out
> celebrating this terrific win and will remember it
> all next decade, right?


Perfectly said berk. It always feels good to win and I'm proud of our team for doing so, but as a former "Suck for Luck" advocate I can't help but look at the position we're in now and look at every game we win at this point as another nail in the coffin, putting us further out of reach from being in a position to draft or move up to draft one of the top QB's.

So yeah I shake my pom poms for a couple seconds after we beat Buffalo in a meaningless win, and then quickly return to reality and the realization that with every pointless win we mortgage our future and take 2 steps back away from the possibility of FINALLY drafting an elite franchise Quarterback to hopefully lead this team deep into the playoffs every year for the next decade.

May need to trade up for Barkley or Griffin now as Jacksonville and Cleveland may be looking for QB's also

no maybe about it. we need to get to at least #3 to ensure we get barkly or rg3. otherwise we've got no shot.

these teams have fewer than the 5 wins we do: indy, stl, minn, tb, jax, cle. so assuming we hold all tie breakers (we don't in fact I think we probably lose the tiebreaker w almost every one---opp stength of sched), we pick 7. We are tied with the following with 5 wins: buff, car, was. so we pick at best 7 and at worst 10 if the season ended today.
anyone know what the opp strength of sched are?

we need to stay within the top 10 to have a shot at a trade up without mortgaging the next 3 drafts. at this point we have no shot at overtaking indy, stl, minn, so we need to pull for those other teams to win.

we offer this and next year's #1, and this years 3rd to move up.
That should get it done.

I don't think that will be enough to move up to 2 or 3 (which we will need to do) from 10. In years past maybe, but not in this years draft

BenVolinPBP Current NFL Draft order: IND, STL, MIN, CLE, JAX, TB, WAS, MIA, CAR, BUF, PHI, KC. Dolphins only drop 1 spot but still behind Skins & Browns

Looks like we're @ #8 right now, the good thing is that Stl, Minn & Jax have all taken QBs high in recent years and are potential trading partners. Atlanta recently moved from the low 20's to the top 10 so it's not out of the question.....it's just gonna cost us. Kinda ironic that we have to root for our beloved to lose against our two most hated rivals in the next 2 weeks.

since our last 2 games are against good teams, I expect our opp SOS to go up, which would make it less likely for us to hold tiebreakers. No matter, we are going to need to trade up and pay an arm and a leg anyway. I think we all just need to get used to it.
CLE is going to get the QB they want since I think they have a ton of picks from last year's trade with ATL, and are above us anyway. WAS probably doesn't have any more ammo than us, but it would really help if we got ahead of them. Those are the 2 sure bets for a QB

If we lose the last 2 games, then we should pick like 6 or 7th or so.

apparently if the draft were held today we'd pick 10th. the prior info saying we pick 7 is wrong

12. Kansas City Chiefs AFC ACW 6 8

11. Philadelphia Eagles NFC NCE 6 8

10. Buffalo Bills AFC ACE 5 9

9. Carolina Panthers NFC NCS 5 9

8. Miami Dolphins AFC ACE 5 9

7. Washington Redskins NFC NCE 5 9

6. Cleveland Browns AFC ACN 4 10

5. Jacksonville Jaguars AFC ACS 4 10

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC NCS 4 10

3. Minnesota Vikings NFC NCN 2 12

2. St. Louis Rams NFC NCW 2 12

1. Indianapolis Colts AFC ACS 1 13

This list was taken right from NFL.com, there's 4 teams in the top 12 that are for sure in the market for a QB; Indy, Cleaveland, Washington and us (also a few more on the fence), to have a legit shot, we have to lose the last 2 (as hard as that sounds) or sit tight and take a shot at Landry Jones. I hate to say it, but winning yesterday was a horrible thing for our long term future, the only thing that proved is that we're a really good, sh.tty team.
Like I said before, it's a blessing that St Louis, Vikes, Bucs & Jags all seem to not be in the market for another high QB pick (I realize that's not set in stone) but a trade is there to be made if Ireland has the stones to do it.

I don't think taking the inverse of the playoff standings gets you the draft order. The playoff tiebreakers are different than the draft tiebreaker. I have yet to see anything that lists the opponents strength of schedule, which is the draft tiebreaker.

I may be wrong, berk, but I do seem to remember something in the draft order rules that say it is the exact opposite of the rules for making the playoffs. Nfl.com should have the rules.

I agree that this isn't set in stone Berk, but it does give you an idea of the teams we're close to.

yep, problem is we will be tied probably with about 4-5 teams so this opp SOS is really important. However, it's really unknowable till the season is over (since it changes with the results of each week). Guess we'll just have to wait and see, and hope teams ahead of us win the next 2 weeks (and we do not).

I found it. It follows the playoff rules except that a team (no matter how bad its record) that made the playoffs cannot pick prior to any team that didn't make the playoffs.

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.

The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.

The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.

chyren, to clarify the above, the tiebreaker is opponents strength of schedule---the team that played the weaker opponents (based on their SOS) picks above the team that played the stornger oppoenents.

Yes, that's what it says above.

These wins have made me sick.

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"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

ChyrenB Wrote:
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> Yes, that's what it says above.


it doesn't say whether the criteria is having a strong or weak SOS, that's what I was trying to clarify

Maybe, I'm wrong but I infer it from the fact that everything else favors the team with the worse finish having the higher draft choice so it would follow that if your oppponents are tougher you are better than someone whose opponents are weaker and thus draft after that team.

well then you are smarter than most, chyren

That is correct. If you play weaker opponents and lose...you suck more...and get the higher draft pick.

the good news this week?

Minnesota plays Washington...both ahead of us...one of them wins. Hopefully Washington.

Tampa plays Carolina....one wins...hopefully Tampa

Bad news? Cleveland plays Baltimore and will likely lose.

Key game? WASHINTON!!!

really though?......we need to trade into the 3rd spot at the very least.

If Indy releases Manning then they are taking a QB with the 1st. the Rams and Viking will likely listen to offers for #2 & #3...so we gotta be one of them. There are enough QB desperate teams that you could see QB's go 1,2, & 3. Not likely...but possible.

realist, what do you think it would take to move up from about 8-10 to #2 or #3? In a year where top picks make much less than they used to, and 3-4 teams will be trying to move up to #2 or #3, I think it will take a lot. Something like our #1 this year, our #1 next year, a 2d from this year, a 3d from next year, and probably another pick (3d or 4th) or player. ouch.
But if we could come away with Barkly or Griffin and still have a high 3d this year to spend on an OL, LB, or FS, I can live with it. Next year will hurt w/o a 1st though.

here is the remaining schedule for our draft competition. It's not inconceivable the indy loses out on luck, given who they play to close the year. That would be hilarious.

1. Indianapolis (1-13)

HOU, at Jax. They could win one of those.

2. St. Louis (2-11)

at PIT, SF, they will lose both

3. Minnesota (2-11)

at WAS, Chi, they could win one of those


4. Cleveland (4-10)

at BAL, Pitt. They're losing both of those.

5. Jacksonville (4-10)

at Tenn, Indy. They could win both but will probably split.

6. Tampa Bay (4-10)

at CAR, at Atlanta. They could split


7. Washington (5-9)

Minn, at Philly. We need them to beat Minn, probably won't beat Philly

8. Carolina (5-9)

TB, at NO.

9,. Miami (5-9)

at NE, Jets. We could win one or both, but hopefully we don't

10. Buffalo (5-9)

Den, at NE. Both losses.

11. Kansas City (6-8)

vs OAK, at Den. Maybe another win left in them.

12. Philadelphia (6-8)

at DAL, at WAS. They probably win out, but hopefully lose to WAS.


Based on this, CLE looks to be in the driver seat, we need WAS to win some games and hopefully CAR. If we don't win any more games, we probably end up picking 5 or 6.