25 years of drafting NFL QB's... The Ghoti Take
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This is a moderated phorum for the CIVILIZED discussion of the Miami Dolphins. In this phorum, there are rules and moderators to make sure you abide by the rules. The moderators for this phorum are JC and Colonel.
Ghoti- How many times did the QB with the most regular season wins, win the Superbowl in the last 15 years. I dont think very often, especially of late. It almost seems like leading the league in wins is as much of a curse as it is a prelude for post season success and the ultimate goal.
Favre and Brees SHOULD both have been 1st rounders, and I think teams have a much better way of evaluating QBs now than they did in the past. If either of those guys came out today, they'd probably be 1st rounders.
As for 6th rounders, then enigma, Brady, is skewing the numbers bigtime. I'm looking at number of QBs in all the lists, and every list is dominated by 1st rounders.
One thing the list tells me is that if Luck is a Manning/Aikman caliber QB (once-ish in a generation), you take him #1 overall.
However, I think it points out just as loudly that it's the team you build around him. Aikman had the best OL of the era, best RB of the era (maybe ever...though I'm partial to Barry Sanders), HoF WR, very good D for a long time. His numbers weren't eye-popping and he won a lot of games handing off for the most part. The whole team dominated. Manning has won one SB in spite of all his regular season success and decent success in the playoffs. Farve...see Manning.
Brady is the undisputed god of the 6th rounders, which boosts those stats significantly.
Perhaps if this franchise had the knack of being able to scout a QB the way NE has the skill to, then people here wouldn't worry about what round a QB would come from. Unfortunately for us Dolphin fans, this organization has sucked repeatedly to find a gem since Marino retired.
Irritates the hell out of me that the powers that be who run this franchise have walked right past a few QB's that could have led this team to winning ways. Epic fail.
true, i once saw a stat somewhere the average salary of geography majors at UNC is something like $10mm. well that's because m jordan was a geo major and skewed the salary figures in a big way. Just like tom brady skews the 6th rounder stats.
Basing who is a good QB based on playoff wins is silly. Aaron Rogers didn't win a playoff game till last year but is a great QB and lost to AZ 2 years ago in a year when Rogers had a great season and in a game when he threw for 4tds and 400+ yards. but by your metric Rogers isn't a quality QB apparently b/c he wasn't "good" enough to lead the team to that playoff win (despite his career body of work, SB season last year, and performance in the playoff loss). Sorry, not buying it. Though I appreciate the effort in your post.
The only way to do this correctly is to look at ALL quarterbacks drafted over a period of time say since the merger. Then compile stats on how many were sucessful and how many weren't based on the totality of thier stats, including regular season wins, playoff wins superbowl appearences and superbowl wins. Then look at how many were taken in what round.
JMO, but I totally agree with the view point of odds wise, finding a better player in a higher round is correct. Not exact, but correct.
And as far as looking soley at regular season wins, playoff wins and superbowls is overly simplistic at best...yes, you want your quarterback to win in those situations however, there are entirely too many factors there totally beyond the influence of the quarterback that skew those stats.