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          Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
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Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: montequi ()
Date: September 12, 2009 07:24AM

I found a funny pattern in our drafting so far. It's been mentioned already that the Trifecta likes to hedge their bets by choosing 2 players at a position of need rather than one. Funny part is, in all these cases so far, the later draft pick has outplayed the earlier one:

DE: Merling (2nd round)/Langford (3rd round) - Langford is the clear starter, but Merling has had a rough 2nd year.

OG: Murphy (4th round)/Thomas (6th round) - No comparison here. Thomas is a future Pro Bowler. Murphy has yet to prove he's starter material

CB: Davis (1st round)/Smith (2nd round) - Although it's difficult to judge this so early, Smith appears NFL-ready while Davis still needs some seasoning. Just like Thomas, Smith is the starter as a rookie!!

Weird.

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: Phinsfan2 ()
Date: September 12, 2009 07:50AM


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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: montequi ()
Date: September 12, 2009 09:23AM

PhinPhan, regardless of why we drafted 2, in all cases when 2 players at the same position were drafted in the same draft, the one drafted later exceeded the one drafted earlier. That certainly not what you'd expect!

I also neglected to mention Turner/Hartline. Yet ANOTHER example.

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MiamiThunder ()
Date: September 12, 2009 10:53AM

I think drafting two for each spot is genuious! Look at how many quality players we drafted in two season's doing that!

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MikeO ()
Date: September 12, 2009 11:38AM

Don't forget Turner and Hartline. It looks like Hartine (the 2nd taken) has more potential at this point than Turner.

It's a philosphy the Fins will keep using since its working so well. Jeff Ireland talked about it during one of the preseason games. So next year if we go DT or OLB early in the draft, expect more of the doubling up.

It's a way to build strength at a position. Stay young. Have affordable contracts with young guys instead of having to overpay for older players with a higher vet min. It's a good philosphy the Fins have working here

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MiamiThunder ()
Date: September 12, 2009 12:58PM

I hope it works, but i must say the Pats been doin the opposite, and it was working for them.

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: montequi ()
Date: September 12, 2009 01:34PM

It's an interesting philosophy that seems to be working so far. It's funny how, historically, our team has appeared to have more luck with lower draft picks than higher ones. In fact, JJ miffed on ALL his 1st-round picks, but he DID pick JT in the 2nd and Zach in the 5th!

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MiamiThunder ()
Date: September 12, 2009 01:46PM

Yeah our first rounds havnt been the best, however long, was a home run, and i hope Ginn turns out this year as a home run.

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MikeO ()
Date: September 12, 2009 03:31PM

Im not so sure Long was a home run. If Ryan has another big year for Atlanta and Henne doesn't pan out next year or down the road. Then we passed on a franchise QB.

Tough to win in this league without a franchise QB. Almost impossible. And that isn't a knock on Long as a player, he's good if not great. But if we passed on a franchise QB.....then taking Long over Ryan is a bad pick any way you slice it

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MiamiThunder ()
Date: September 12, 2009 04:34PM

Ok we got a PRO BOWL LEFT TACKLE!!!!! AND A PROVEN VET IN PENNINGTON, who can play for another solid 4 years. Yeah Long is a home run! I cant believe your not satisfied with Long.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/12/2009 04:36PM by MiamiThunder.

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MikeO ()
Date: September 12, 2009 11:07PM

don't put words in my mouth. I never said I wasn't satisfied with Long.

But Pennington isn't a franchise QB, he's a 2 year stop-gap and then he's gone. If Ryan turns out to be a franchise QB, its a bad pick. Marino fell to the bottom of his draft in 1983. Many GOOD players were taken ahead of him. Don't you think almost every team messed up by not taking a Franchise QB in Marino instead of the guy they did take????? I'm not saying Matt Ryan is Dan Marino. But you DON'T PASS UP franchise QB's when you have a chance to get one in the draft. Bottom line.

Jake Long is and will be great, but if Henne doesn't pan out. And If we passed up a franchise QB, it was a mistake!!!

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MiamiThunder ()
Date: September 13, 2009 03:29AM

You make a good point about a franchise qb, but look at college. Tim Tebow is a beast, he threw for 4 td's and ran one in yesterday, he is going to win the h man twice, and would be the perfect qb for this team next year. Sam Bradford a better pocket passer would be better than Ryan! So its not like we cant go out and get a good franchise, but the differance will be a solid team to put him in! And your bust of a pick Jake Long would make sure he would stay protected, look at Tom Brady all the years the man went untouched, he is a beast, well mostly was because of a GREAT offensive line, which is getting realy old. Look at last year, he went down because of aging o-line. So pro bowl left tackle was a home run, especialy if Henne turns into, or we go out and get Sam Bradford, or Tim Tebow.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/13/2009 03:31AM by MiamiThunder.

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: DolphinSam ()
Date: September 13, 2009 05:20AM

We don't have a franchise QB, and we have to face the music on that. We have to do what we can on offense this year. Guys...we have the SAME starting offense as last year, except for Jake Grove. That's not where you want to be out of design.

As far as later round draft picks being better, yes that's been our experience, but that's also because of good coaching and competition, coaching them up.

There's nothing wrong with having lots of later round picks in your lineup, they're motivated players. But you need to sprinkle in a few stars on your team to make it to the post season. We're glaringly lacking that on offense. I wanted it done this year, and we didn't do it. We can't go another season, especially since there might be an adjustment period with Penny to Henne. If we don't up-talent the offense next season, you're going to see a big drop in the W/L column.

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Re: Funny pattern in our drafts - later pick always better?
Posted by: MiamiThunder ()
Date: September 13, 2009 06:30AM

I beg to differ, we got Thomas back, which he was gone just about all of last year, and Haynos will be playing alot more, and Camarillo will be back, and Hilliard will play some, and Hartline will deff make some nice catchs deep, and Turner for the red zone, so i dissagree, with your same team as last year, plus Pat White might be in there to do some stuff, and two full season's of injury free for out top 3 players on offense, and a full season of chemistry for our wr's and Pennington, with coachs.

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