I'm currently working security for the NY Mets who are in town for annual spring training. Watched a re-run for Moneyball with Brad Pitt this morning. I always enjoyed that movie , puts me in a spring/ summer mood to hibernate until the summer Dolphins games start.

Got me thinking.........The Dolphins are different this season. We threw so many free agents , money for 1 run that ended in injury prone disaster.

The basic idea behind Moneyball or Sabermetrics is to use data and evidence to measure and improve the aspects of the game that are most correlated with winning, such as on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs created, etc.

, Moneyball relies on the principle that a player's overall performance on the field is more important than traditional stats like batting average or home runs. By using metrics like on-base percentage and defensive runs saved, teams can find hidden gems that other teams may have overlooked.

I wonder if any of these principles could be used towards football? Buying big named players others can't afford isn't going to build a championship team. I used to think drafting better was the answer.......and it is , to a point. Until 5 yrs later You can't afford them.

I wonder what stats, like injuries , ( non injuries) or causing turnovers , assists, is there a way to formulate great under the wire skilled players who help win games. There is always chance involved, look what happened to Aaron Rodgers....freaky shit like that will happen. The Dolphins know that. Maybe football is too unpredictable? Penalties is a big one.

Here's what I'm saying...... Special Teams. I could really see a formula worked out for those players who cost cheap, but provide great play for field position and turnovers. For all of those hidden points in football.

For Example. If you block a kick or prevent a touchdown.....that's as good as
A field goal or a touchdown for yourself.

Unlock more ways to gain hidden points and stay under the cap.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!

Interesting thought, and I like a lot of the elements you point out. I think the moneyball approach is probably more applicable to baseball because of the relative independence of hitter v. pitcher as opposed to how in football all 11 have to be doing their job every play for success. Baseball doesn't have as much of the "Tyreek outran the coverage...Tua fired the perfect pass...but one of the OL was holding on the play so no TD".

That said, it would be valuable to understand whether/how moneyball principles could be used to create advantages.

In addition to special teams, which I agree with, I think one of the more underappreciated bang-for-the-buck elements is a good OL coach. We had more injury impact to our OL than any team except the Jets last year and yet our OL play was generally better than many times in years past when we fielded most of our best 5. Obviously injuries took a toll, but coaching was likely a big part of keeping it from being disasterous.

Yes! Great point on the coaching. Good coaching, making the right decisions at the right time ......does anyone seriously groom the field for the best of what the team needs? A great coach elsewhere might not be great coach here. Why? Understand that and hire better.

UDFA . Undrafted free agents. How many go one to probowl careers? Dozens. How to harness and understand that could be a game changer .....one we could afford.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!

The direct reward for signing big names isn't in guaranteed wins, but it might result in more ticket sales. For a short while at least..but fans want to see wins.

One other side note about ticket sales--we are blessed/cursed with being a tourist destination, especially during cold weather. That is a major reason why our stadium gets filled with fans of the visiting team. And those sales put butts in the seats as they say, from paying customers even if they root against us. Then they spend more money at restaurants, hotels etc benefiting the local economy. Kind of sucks in a way, that there's a bright side of idiot fans from out of town taking over our stadium.

But back to the topic: Metrics are pretty huge these days in general. As was said, definitely in baseball, but really in all sports. Here in Massachusetts they legalized sports betting (from your phone, you don't even have to go to a casino) and since then, I've notice a lot of people talking about a lot of stats that I'd never heard of beforehand. So I wonder if the money-ball stuff is already going on to some degree. But it sure is interesting.

Yes.....I found it fascinating. If there is a way to get an edge and possibly figure a formula to draft better and sign better......it would be a game changer.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!

Was thinking exactly the same with this years off season. Letting the overpriced guys go and adding lower priced more efficient players. Only time will tell. Love Wilkins but learned from Suh you can't overpay interior DL. other than Christian I cant recall the names of those that have left being called a lot

Like the Fuller Poyer Barrett and Brooks additions, a D upgrade if they stay healthy.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/19/2024 06:24AM by jlyell13.

New players and maybe we stay away from injury as much as posible.

Rgphin Wrote:
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> New players and maybe we stay away from injury as
> much as posible.

*************************************************

There are only a couple of young ones in the bunch Miami has signed. Many of the others have injury issues, so I'm not sure how long they will be healthy for us.

We can only keep our fingers crossed for good health.

jlyell13 Wrote:
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>
> Like the Fuller Poyer Barrett and Brooks
> additions, a D upgrade if they stay healthy.



YES. That's kind of my point....(I didn't fully understand my point either until you posted that)

What was the #1 issue Miami has had for the last decade? INJURIES.

Is that stat taken into account when signing players? Miami spent so much on TUA. Hes completed only 1 season without missing a start.

So many players were not just banged up but had serious season ending injuries. I dont remember players getting hurt so routinely back in the day. Richmond Webb was always there to protect Dan. Just seems like these guys are blown out by October. WTF? Will they ever be the same?

I just saw Wilkins as almost priceless because of his reliability. Could he do an Aaron Rodgers next Sept? Sure. But they really should be a way to factor reliability into a persons overall performance. How does a guy walk onto a field and blow out his Achilles untouched? Was it getting ready to go? Imagine catching that before surgery is needed?

I don't know. I'm just really disgusted with Miami's "bad luck". When does it stop or is this shit preventable? How do we lose almost every starter while others cruise to Championship after championship? Then when we get a reliable All Pro we ship him off and sign others who are damaged goods already. Really?

Sorry.......alot of rambling. Just been disgusted since that last quarter in the Dolphins Monday night game. That was the only time Wilkins screwed the pooch. The defense tanked it completely out of gas.

I usually see a clear cut plan to elevate the team. But I just don't see it. My gut tells me Wilkins anchored this whole defense. Maybe they asked to much of him that Monday night . I see them definitely improving the Oline but defense will be a different matter. Thank god we have Ramsey or this team would be completely rudderless on defense. Seiler is still a beast but he played off Wilkins who was double teamed everyplay.

Hope Im wrong.

Another thing to ponder.

I was always for trading back for more picks. The Patriots did this for decades and remained the best team in the early 2000's. They rarely had a #1 pick.

Brady was always restructuring to afford better players. Is that a Key? Draft back get more picks & depth at cheaper co$t? This was also Jimmy Johnsons plan. Big signings bankrupt you quick. The Chiefs let Hill go and won another Superbowl.

Hope we can figure it out. Not even sure TUA is worth a huge contract. Better make it injury proof with incentives.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!