Phinsfan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Northeast Fin Fan Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I actually don't think we are disagreeing all
> that
> > much (except on the Ortiz matter).
> >
> > However, I would estimate the number of
> cheaters
> > who are getting away with it or who are unaware
> > that they are cheating to be higher than you
> do.
>
> I never gave an estimate on how many players I
> think are cheating and getting away with it, why
> would you think that number would be low?

I didn't say the number would be low. I think it is a very high number.

You like that 1:29 stat. How about his last 2 years there when we was 1:19? That shows he was adapting to MLB pitching.

And, of course minor league HRs are not counted as MLB HRs but they do indicate his power hitting ability. Certainly, the distance he was hitting confirms that he had tremendous power in his early 20's. I bring those up because you made the argument that he hit more HRs after 27 than he did before age 27. You're right he did; in part because the Twins kept sending him to the minors because he was inconsistent.

Lumping him in with Sosa and McGwire with absolutely zero evidence? Wow.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2009 12:19PM by Northeast Fin Fan.

I'm sure you can come up with a list of players who hit more HRs before age 27 than they did between 27 and 33; but I am equally sure that I can come up with a much larger list who hit more HRs between 27 and 33.

So 6 out of 10 support my point even though the two closest ratios (15.5 to 15.6 and 17.2 to 17.4) were in your favor. And despite that, you think that the 4 support your view.

Also, Ortiz was playing for the Sox at age 27, so your 2 categories should be 21 to 26 and 27 to 32.

PF2 - you have no argument. You are making assumptions and insinuations which mean absolutely nothing. And I am starting to suspect that you are a Yankees fan.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2009 01:02PM by Northeast Fin Fan.

McGriff
Justice
Aaron
Griffey
Schmidt
Mantle
McCovey
Dick Allen
Foster
Hodges

LMAO THIS IS GREAT WHOHOOOOO IM A BLUE JAYS FAN!!!

PF2 - I used HRs per year, not HRs per AB. Look at my original post on this - I didn't say HR/AB ratio; I was just talking about number of HRs. In any event, you are making the accusation so you have the burden of proof, which you don't have.

Out of curiosity, how do Ortiz's career HR ratios compare to those of confirmed users like ARod, Giambi, Sheffield, Canseco, McGwire, Bonds, etc?



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2009 04:52PM by Northeast Fin Fan.

We can disagree on this. Just please tell me you are not a Yankee fan.

i find it hillarious that the last 8 or so BIG names in baseball all on steroids lol sad realy!!!! every awsome new talent is JUICED when DOES THE MADNESS END!!!

I still say that Ortiz's prolific HR hitting in the minors (both the quantity of HRs and the distancehe hot them) were a very good indication of what he would do in the majors once he developed some consistency.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/08/2009 11:22AM by Northeast Fin Fan.

HR per AB is not a good guage because if a player in his early 20s is hopping between the majors and minors a low number of ABs can skew that ratio greatly. Also, consistency is a huge part of what a player in his 20s has to develop.

In any event, here are some guys whose careers had distinct jumps at age 26 or 27:
George Foster
Tino Martinez
Sean Green
Roy Sievers
Mo Vaughn
Jeff Bagwell
Cecil Fielder
Don Baylor
Norm Cash
Gil Hodges
Stan Musial - massive jump at age 27
Duke Snider - full time player at age 23. 4 years before age 27 average about 26 HRs; 4 years after age 27 averaged about 42 HRs


I had inserted some very clever quotes here about the arrogance of people who jump to conclusions; then I read the thread where you admit to being a Yankee fan. The funny thing about misery (steroid users - ARod, Giambi, Sheffield, Clemens, Petite, etc) is that it definitely loves company. Your bias is causing you to create a case where none exists. Sorry if I can't accept your slanted views. Keep trying though. Maybe you can find something on Jason Bay or Kevin Youkilis. I'm sure that would please Yankee fans. Then again, if those guys were gone Joba Chamberlain wouldn't have anyone to bean now would he?

Anyway, at least you're a Dolphin fan, which is much better than the average Yankee fan.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 05/08/2009 04:42AM by Northeast Fin Fan.

There is a HUGE loophole in the MLB testing. Guys who took steroids for years/decades and their bodies have stopped producing testostorone are allowed to take "certain drugs/steroids" to help them produce testostorone as long as its on file with MLB. It's called T.U.E. (therapeutic use excemption)

This is the case with Manny. That "female drug" he was taking is because after years of taking steroids his body can't produce testostone. There are hundreds of MLB players today on steroids and its allowed by MLB and MLB knows about it because of this T.U.E clause that is allowed.

So, Manny had to go out of his way to fail this test. Because all the idiot had to do was have his condition on file with MLB and he would have been fine.

Puljous is next. Look at the size of that freak. You don't see many 13th round draft picks turn into the player he has turned into. And the size he has turned into.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 05/08/2009 05:22AM by MikeO.

I frantically tried to trade MANNY from 2 of my 3 fantasy teams as the news was breaking... and it ALMOST worked.

Some sucker ALMOST TRADEd evan longoria for MANNY yesterday morning as the story was breaking. Said he was a manny fan and wanted to do the deal even thoguh evan's stats are better. but it fell through obivously...

Dude you are taking this too personally. It's a debate about sports, not life.

Phinsfan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Northeast Fin Fan Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > HR per AB is not a good guage because if a
> player
> > in his early 20s is hopping between the majors
> and
> > minors a low number of ABs can skew that ratio
> > greatly. Also, consistency is a huge part of
> what
> > a player in his 20s has to develop.
>
> That makes no sense at all. It's like saying the
> guy that won 16 games in 35 starts with a 4.50 era
> is a better pitcher than the guy that won 11 games
> in 20 starts with a 3.50 era. Or that Hank Aaron
> was a better HR hitter than Babe Ruth. Aaron
> did hit more HR's than ruth but he needed waaay
> more AB's to do it. You have to account for
> variables like longeviety, or health whne
> comparing players side by side because no two guys
> careers are going to EXACTLY mirror each other.
>
> Statistical averages is the only way to do that in
> baseball. That's why the batting title is given
> each year to the player with the highest batting
> average, not the most hits.

But even for the batting title a minimum number of ABs is required. Why? Because a small sample size is not enough to warrant winning the award. A larger sample size is needed.
>
> You are completely wrong on this.

Nope.

> > In any event, here are some guys whose careers
> had
> > distinct jumps at age 26 or 27:
> > George Foster
> > Tino Martinez
> > Sean Green
> > Roy Sievers
> > Mo Vaughn
> > Jeff Bagwell
> > Cecil Fielder
> > Don Baylor
> > Norm Cash
> > Gil Hodges
> > Stan Musial - massive jump at age 27
> > Duke Snider - full time player at age 23. 4
> years
> > before age 27 average about 26 HRs; 4 years
> after
> > age 27 averaged about 42 HRs
>
>
> I'll get to your list later today, but forget
> bagwell and Vaughn. Both were Juicers.
>
> ***umm, no I won't.


Take a look at Musial and Snider.


> > I had inserted some very clever quotes here
> about
> > the arrogance of people who jump to
> conclusions;
> > then I read the thread where you admit to being
> a
> > Yankee fan. The funny thing about misery
> (steroid
> > users - ARod, Giambi, Sheffield, Clemens,
> Petite,
> > etc) is that it definitely loves company. Your
> > bias is causing you to create a case where none
> > exists.
>
> I have no misery over any of those players. I
> have no problem saying they were all cheaters and
> that none of them should be eligible for the Hall
> of fame. I never wanted Giambi cause he was an
> obvious cheat in Oakland. Never wanted
> Sheffield, he was just a tool. I was always
> suspect of Clemens after he revived his career in
> Toronto. A-Rod is A-Rod.
>
> As for my "bias" I'll just point out that people
> in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. You are
> the one that made this about a rivalry and not
> about stats. You might just as well have waived
> a white flag of surrender and admitted I was
> right.

You have written nothing to prove that you were right, although you apparently have a desperate need to feel that you have.


> >Sorry if I can't accept your slanted
> > views. Keep trying though. Maybe you can find
> > something on Jason Bay or Kevin Youkilis. I'm
> > sure that would please Yankee fans. Then
> again,
> > if those guys were gone Joba Chamberlain
> wouldn't
> > have anyone to bean now would he?
>
>
> Now your bias is showing. You can't account for
> Ortiz statistical anomaly any other way than to
> deflect by claiming I must be wrong because I'm a
> Yankee fan. That's pretty sad.

See the stats of the players listed above.

> I think I'd be offended if I actually cared what
> you thought. Funny thing is that a lot (at least
> a dozen) of my friends and co-workers are Red Sox
> fans. I showed most of them the numbers were were
> discussing yesterday and every single one of them
> said that I was right (for whatever thats worth).
> They didn't say it proved anything (only an
> admission or a positive test would do that) but
> the facts as they are were enough to fairly say
> that Ortiz very well could be a juicer.

Really? They must be easily influenced. Either that or they wanted you to stop throwing carefully selected stats at them.


> YOU are the one that assumed there is a bias that
> discounts my entire argument just because I root
> for the Yankees. That's fairly pathetic If you
> knew me, you'd find that notion laughable. I
> don't root for your team but I was glad when they
> got the monkey off their back (for my friends
> sake).
>
> Frankly, I find the fact that you are ready to
> lump people together because they don't see the
> world the same way as you to be rather boorish.
> I think I'm done wating my time with you and this
> debate.
>
>
>
> >
> > Anyway, at least you're a Dolphin fan, which is
> > much better than the average Yankee fan.
>
> Especially when, like me, that yankee fan is a
> pro-chioce, Black, Oriental, Gay, Hispanic,
> Buddhist, Muslim who doesn't look at the world
> through the same biased red colored glasses as
> you....


I have zero prejudice. So if that is the implication it is not a fair one.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/08/2009 06:35AM by Northeast Fin Fan.

As an admittedly biased Red Sox fan, my opinion isn't that Ortiz is NOT on the juice. He had a wrist injury last year and he still hasn't healed completely, it seems. If he's taking something illegal, he better get his money back, because it ain't working.

As was mentioned earlier, the low fence and weird park dimensions at Fenway favor a hitter of his type. Plus, he doesn't have the body type of the stereotypical roid-head. He's big, but not what I'd call toned. Nor does he have the typical roid personality--the guy is a big teddy bear; hardly ever seems to lose his temper.

Has he used them in the past? Maybe. A few years ago, he even said so much in an interview--that back in the Dominican Republic he could have easily taken something on the supplement side or had been 'given something' (both are code terms for illegal stuff) that was on the prohibited list.

I'm sure he was tested quite frequently between 2004 and 2007. If they didn't find anything in his system then, they won't find it now, unless he's incredibly stupid (like Manny).

I actually like to see the Yankees do well. Even as a Sox fan, I know that baseball is much more fun when both the Sox and Yankees are good. And ... some of my closest friends are Yankee fans.

All I have to say is anyone that thinks that there wasn't a majority (if not near 100%) penetration of Steroids ni the MLB is burying their heads in the sand.

Hell, even now with players having a headsup about the testing process damn near every major star in the game has STILL failed a test, and the MLB has still failed to release the full list of names (in the 100's) of all players that have ever failed a test.

Jose Canseco was telling the truth and was ridiculed and now in hindsight just about every accusation he made has shown to either be true or have a very high liklihood of being true.

>>> Also if you don't think that there are a lot of NFL players that use (or have used in the past to get where they are) you are also burying your head in the sand. There are just not that many freaks of nature in the world. It is not normal for a 300lb+ man to be able to outrun most reasonably fit humans, and there aren't that many people out there that can build a 220+lb physique with single digit bodyfat percentage naturally. I'm sure most of them were naturally bigger and stronger than most... but I'm willing to bet a majority of them juiced to get to where they are at whether in high school, college, or the pros.

it is becoming known as the steroid era for a reason...it would be more interesting if a player came out and said he knows for an absolute fact that no one on his team used steroids... i am not a big mlb fan but pick a power hitter from the era you cant make these assumptions about