Ok so this is a bit of a dream scenario but lets assume a couple of things happen.

-We restructure contracts/cut players and create a good chunk of cap room. (We have roughly 6 million in space now plus 9 mil rollover from last season and I think with cuts/restructures we could get in the 15-20 million range plus the 9 mil rollover)
-We resign players willing to do cap friendly deals (this may or may not include Carey and Langford)
-FA begins and we have the money to sign one big FA

Who would you rather have (I have only listed guys that have a pretty good chance to hit the FA market)

Mario Williams - 7 year at 105 million per year (that's a guess but I think its pretty close. It puts him at 15 mpy)

Carl Nicks - 7 year at 8-9 mpy (makes him the highest paid interior lineman in football but he is that good)

Peyton Manning - 2 year 10 mpy (incentives for health and winning could bring it up to 15 mpy)

Paul Soliai - 5 or 6 years at 10 mpy (I'm not exactly sure what kind of money he wants so I guessed. If you have a better idea of the numbers please post it)

Matt Flynn - I have absolutely no idea what his contract will look like.
Kolb signed for 5 years 63 million but I don't think Flynn will get that kind of money unless a bidding war occurs. Kolb had more tape available and was more highly touted coming out of college. I would project a 5 year 50 million deal for Flynn which is still pretty large.


So assuming we could only land one of these guys, due to salary cap restrictions plus we would still need to lock up our draft picks, which one would you rather have? Take into account the price as well. We might be able to sign two players but that would make us pretty tight against the cap.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/18/2012 02:03PM by dolphin1423.

Come on guys. No one has an opinion on which of these players to go after? I know the QB situation has been debated to death but we have a legitimate chance to land a top player at another position.

I guess I'll throw in my two cents.

Sign Nicks. Go all in for RGIII and I doubt the bidding goes much higher than two 1st rounders and two 2nd rounders. I'm assuming CLE or WAS gets Flynn and the other may prefer Tannehill over paying a huge price for RGIII. Use the remainder of the draft to retool the defense for the 4-3.

I would also only sign Carey and Langford to reasonable contracts and not guaranteed starter money.

Cut Incognito. Restructure or cut Bell and McDaniel. Restructure Dansby and Marshall.

If this happens then our OL could look like this: Long, Nicks, Pouncey, Carey/Jerry/Garner, Jerry/Garner/draft pick. That gives us a beastly left side with some young prospects on the right side and probably a top five OL in the NFL for RGIII and Matt Moore.

I would take a healthy Manning to make us relevant for at least 4 years.

It's not realistic to think we're going to land either of these guys. We have $15M in cap space. $5M is going to be needed to sign our draft picks. It's going to take at least $8M per season to land Flynn (based on the Matt Schaub contract, and that may be estimating low). That leaves us $2M, which is nothing. We can probably free up another $10M-12M in restructures/cuts. But, keep in mind, cuts create more holes to fill. You can bet that we'll be players for a veteran free agent S like Reggie Nelson, who has played for Kevin Coyle. And every veteran pickup you make for depth guys, they are getting about $1M per year. It's not a lot of cap room to deal with. There is no way we are affording Mario Williams. We are in the middle of the pack in cap room. There are 4 teams with over $30M to spare. Those are the teams that are going to be in on the big name free agents.

The only way we could make a splash like that is if we don't sign either Manning or Flynn, and are going to roll the dice with Ryan Tannehill.

Calais Campbell or a Upshaw, Coples or Ingram could provide us with an effective rusher opposite Wake

dolfanmark Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It's not realistic to think we're going to land
> either of these guys. We have $15M in cap space.
> $5M is going to be needed to sign our draft picks.
> It's going to take at least $8M per season to land
> Flynn (based on the Matt Schaub contract, and that
> may be estimating low). That leaves us $2M, which
> is nothing. We can probably free up another
> $10M-12M in restructures/cuts. But, keep in mind,
> cuts create more holes to fill. You can bet that
> we'll be players for a veteran free agent S like
> Reggie Nelson, who has played for Kevin Coyle. And
> every veteran pickup you make for depth guys, they
> are getting about $1M per year. It's not a lot of
> cap room to deal with. There is no way we are
> affording Mario Williams. We are in the middle of
> the pack in cap room. There are 4 teams with over
> $30M to spare. Those are the teams that are going
> to be in on the big name free agents.
>
> The only way we could make a splash like that is
> if we don't sign either Manning or Flynn, and are
> going to roll the dice with Ryan Tannehill.


I never said it was realistic. I believe I started the post as saying it was a bit of a dream scenario but still possible.

Obviously, it would be difficult to sign Flynn or Manning plus another big name FA. That's why I listed Flynn, Manning, and others and said pick one of them. We might be able to squeeze two depending on the kind of contract we would have to give Flynn or Manning.

And we would be "rolling the dice" with Flynn, Manning, Tannehill, and RGIII. It's not like Flynn and Manning are safe options.

I agree that the most realistic scenario in which to make a splash is if we draft a QB instead of signing one in FA. That is the strategy I favor. I think it is a realistic scenario that we could land Nicks and then trade up for RGIII or draft Tannehill. It might not be likely but it is definitely a possibility.

Also, who says we fill every need with a 1 million dollar veterans? We could fill needs with draft picks, undrafted free agents, or shift around current players to different positions. We are a pretty deep team in some places so I don't think we will be spending 7 million in cap space on 7 veteran FA at the minimum. That would be stupid. We might snag one or two of those guys though.

Thanks for your post, it stirred up some debate and you made some good points. I am taking it that you want no part of any big name except a QB. I agree that Mario Williams contract would pretty much paralyze our cap space so that would be unlikely. However, it does fill a huge need with a top player so we could go all in on Mario and draft a QB (although I don't favor this).


Calais Campbell won't make it out of Arizona. Word is that they will franchise him if they have to.

dolphin1423 Wrote:

> Also, who says we fill every need with a 1 million
> dollar veterans? We could fill needs with draft
> picks, undrafted free agents, or shift around
> current players to different positions. We are a
> pretty deep team in some places so I don't think
> we will be spending 7 million in cap space on 7
> veteran FA at the minimum. That would be stupid.
> We might snag one or two of those guys though.

My point is that even guys like Jason Trusnik and Ryan Cook cost $1M against the cap. The veteran minimum for a player with 4 years of service (the minimum for free agency) is ~$700k. So, signing any veterans, even depth guys, eats up more cap space than people think.

>
> Thanks for your post, it stirred up some debate
> and you made some good points. I am taking it
> that you want no part of any big name except a QB.

No, I would like more. I would like to add a Cliff Avril to rush the passer opposite Wake. I'd like D'Qwell Jackson, Stephen Tulloch, or Curtis Lofton at LB. I would love to add Carl Nicks to the OL. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think we sign either Flynn or Manning, and that is going to eat most of our money. And then I think we'll sign 2 or 3 mid-tier guys, like a Reggie Nelson. But, we'll see how they maneuver. I would love to see them extend Marshall, and then trade him, which would free up $6.5M in one shot. If they did that, then with some other cuts/restructures, then maybe they could be players for a second big name.

We are going to have plenty of room. Contracts will get adjusted and we will be a le to get whoever we want too.

---------------------

"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

dolfanmark Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> dolphin1423 Wrote:
>
> > Also, who says we fill every need with a 1
> million
> > dollar veterans? We could fill needs with
> draft
> > picks, undrafted free agents, or shift around
> > current players to different positions. We are
> a
> > pretty deep team in some places so I don't
> think
> > we will be spending 7 million in cap space on 7
> > veteran FA at the minimum. That would be
> stupid.
> > We might snag one or two of those guys though.
>
> My point is that even guys like Jason Trusnik and
> Ryan Cook cost $1M against the cap. The veteran
> minimum for a player with 4 years of service (the
> minimum for free agency) is ~$700k. So, signing
> any veterans, even depth guys, eats up more cap
> space than people think.

Right I understand your point. Those guys do eat up more cap than expected but I don't think guys like that would have a large impact on our ability to spend money on a big name. I would rather cut guys like that and have the ability to get a big name then find undrafted rooks or younger vets to replace them.

> > Thanks for your post, it stirred up some debate
> > and you made some good points. I am taking it
> > that you want no part of any big name except a
> QB.
>
> No, I would like more. I would like to add a Cliff
> Avril to rush the passer opposite Wake. I'd like
> D'Qwell Jackson, Stephen Tulloch, or Curtis Lofton
> at LB. I would love to add Carl Nicks to the OL. I
> just don't think it's going to happen. I think we
> sign either Flynn or Manning, and that is going to
> eat most of our money. And then I think we'll sign
> 2 or 3 mid-tier guys, like a Reggie Nelson. But,
> we'll see how they maneuver. I would love to see
> them extend Marshall, and then trade him, which
> would free up $6.5M in one shot. If they did that,
> then with some other cuts/restructures, then maybe
> they could be players for a second big name.

Ok so suppose Manning isn't healthy enough for our medical staff and a bidding war starts for Flynn and we drop out. Then what would you do?

Keep in mind that with the rollover, cuts/restructures, and possible trades we will have about 20-25 million in cap. More than enough to sign at least one big name free agent and maybe a couple of the mid-tier guys you referred to if we don't go after another top FA.

Which guys are at the top of your list if we had that space and didn't sign a QB?

Also, I like the names you tossed in. Avril will command a massive contract but Tulloch might slip free and he would be a great addition at MLB in the 4-3. Tulloch could be signed for a more reasonable contract as well. I'm not a fan of signing Lofton, he is more of a two down player and we already have problems with our linebackers in coverage.

dolphin1423 Wrote:

> Ok so suppose Manning isn't healthy enough for our
> medical staff and a bidding war starts for Flynn
> and we drop out. Then what would you do?
>

Sign a pass rusher like Avril.

>
> Which guys are at the top of your list if we had
> that space and didn't sign a QB?
>
> Also, I like the names you tossed in. Avril will
> command a massive contract but Tulloch might slip
> free and he would be a great addition at MLB in
> the 4-3. Tulloch could be signed for a more
> reasonable contract as well. I'm not a fan of
> signing Lofton, he is more of a two down player
> and we already have problems with our linebackers
> in coverage.

Actually, we don't. Pass coverage is the strength of both Dansby and Burnett. That's why we signed both. And that's probably why we won't sign a big name for MLB. Both Dansby and Burnett are going to stay on the field in the nickel, so whoever is at MLB is going to be a two-down player. Maybe we would go after a lower profile guy, like Dan Connor.

Actually, Dansby and Burnett are "supposedly" good cover guys but if you watched the games they both got eaten alive in coverage at times. Maybe that is just getting outschemed and put in bad matchups but watching the games last year it was obvious that they both struggled in coverage, especially Burnett.

They both got better as the season wore on but from the tape last season I would hesitate to say coverage is one of their strengths.

Burnett and Dansby (especially Dansby) were out of shape when the season began. I think you could see their real coverage skills from about week 10 on. Burnett had a pick 6 against OAK.

You don't give up that much for a OG (Nicks).

Depends on how much you will run the football. For a power running offense, Nicks would be well worth it. If you are going to pass most of the time then it becomes a more difficult decision.

Nicks is hands down the best interior lineman in football. No other guard comes close and a healthy Mangold is second best.

ChambersDeepBall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Burnett and Dansby (especially Dansby) were out of
> shape when the season began. I think you could
> see their real coverage skills from about week 10
> on. Burnett had a pick 6 against OAK.


Exactly. Dansby began the season at 270 lbs, and his poor conditioning was a huge reason why the defense struggled early on. It was unacceptable for a team captain to show up that out of shape. By mid season, he was at 245, and he played much better. For the first 6 weeks or so, the team was using Burnett differently than he had been used in San Diego. They had him lined up as the Mike. With his production lagging, they finally smartened up and put him back to the Moe, and he thrived. Remember, he's a former college safety.

Dansby ranked 12th in the league among ILB in coverage by profootballfocus.com. Burnett was a disaster in pass coverage for the first 6 weeks. But, he earned positive grades in 7 of the last 10 games, with the only truly bad game being when he was matched up with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

I agree Chambers and Mark,

From mid-season on...those 2 guys were studs.

---------------------

"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

So the concern isn't pass coverage, It's using them correctly and making sure they show up to camp in shape.