Knowing what I know TODAY...here's how I hope this all plays out:

When FA starts on march 8th nobody knows if manning will be healthy.

Flynn signs with CLEVELAND as Mike Holmgren sees him as another Matt Hasselbeck.

Washington falls in love with Tannehill and decides to stay at #6 and take him there.

St Louis trades us the #2 pick for a reasonable cost since we are the only serious bidder.

We draft Rg3 @ #2.

In may manning finally gets healthy enough to sign and we sign him.

Manning starts. RG3 is the backup and we deal Moore for a mid round pick in next years draft.

that's not going to happen for a lot of reasons.

(1) tannhill at #6 is just way way to high for him
(2) manning isn't going to sign with us when we just drafted a bigshot franchise in RG3, that's the situation everyone wanted to avoid in indy
(3) we're not going to trade the farm for RG3 then have him sit for 3 years behind manning--see #2
(4) I could see flynn going elsewhere, but SEA seems more likely to me than CLE

What do you think St Louis will want for the 2nd pick. 2 first rnd picks(2012/13 and this years 3rd? That's would not be a high price.

IF CLE and WAS otherwise get their QB and are out of trade-up market, I think the price to go to #2 will be (1) our #1 this year; (2) our #2 and #4 this year; (3) our #2 next year; (4) our #3 next year; and (5) a player (maybe Bess).

Would you pay that? Basically we are getting RG3 for 2 #2s, a #3, a #4, and Bess (we are swapping #1s but we'd take Griffen with that pick anyway).

If you are drafted #2 overall....you are expected to start, immediately.

---------------------

"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

Aqua&Orange Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you are drafted #2 overall....you are expected
> to start, immediately.


Only by the Fans.

Truth:

--Re CLE vs SEA, I didn't see any report about that. Just a feeling that if CLE is going to upgrade over Colt McCoy, they will use their ammo to take one of the top 2 QBs this year, and not give another team's backup a ton more $$.

--Regardless of the rest of it, I just think it is totally implausible that manning, with complete and utter control of where he goes, and who will go only to the "perfect" situation, would sign with a team that just give up a "lot" to get its franchise QB (define 'a lot' as you will, but we can agree it will be multiple high picks and/or players), would want to join that team. We wouldn't trade up to get Griffen with the attitude that "he's not Luck so who knows if he will be any good." We make that trade to get him on the field ASAP. At a minimum in year 2, otherwise what's the point? Why would Manning want to walk into that situation? One of the reasons's it's not workable in Indy is bc everyone knows the "rookie franchise QB" has to play. A QB take 1 or 2 overall has got to play. manning is leaving that exact situation, he's not going to walk into another.

THE Truth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Aqua&Orange Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > If you are drafted #2 overall....you are
> expected
> > to start, immediately.
>
>
> Only by the Fans.



&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Not just by the fans, but by the franchise as well.

You can thank the recent success of most high picked QB's for that.

---------------------

"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

berkeley223 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> IF CLE and WAS otherwise get their QB and are out
> of trade-up market, I think the price to go to #2
> will be (1) our #1 this year; (2) our #2 and #4
> this year; (3) our #2 next year; (4) our #3 next
> year; and (5) a player (maybe Bess).
>
> Would you pay that? Basically we are getting RG3
> for 2 #2s, a #3, a #4, and Bess (we are swapping
> #1s but we'd take Griffen with that pick anyway).


So you think the price to move up from #8/9 to number 2 when we are the ONLY BIDDER is a high #1, a pair of 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th AND a player like Bess who is probably worth a 2nd rounder?????

I'm scared to ask what you think it's going to cost to make that jump if we have to outbid two teams that arepi king ahead of us.

Aqua&Orange Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> THE Truth Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Aqua&Orange Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > If you are drafted #2 overall....you are
> > expected
> > > to start, immediately.
> >
> >
> > Only by the Fans.
>
>
>
> &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
> Not just by the fans, but by the franchise as
> well.
>
> You can thank the recent success of most high
> picked QB's for that.


Only if they don't have a better option at qb...which 99% of teams taking a qb that high don't.

And if we took rg3 there we wouldn't hand him the job. We'd make him beat out moore for it.

But put your gm hat on for a second. You just drafted RG3 in April. A month later Peyton manning calls and says "I'd like to play for you this year. I'm 100% healthy".

Are you going to say "no thanks. I just drafted a qb and I have to start him."

Of course you aren't. Your going to say "we are sending the jet for you and your agent. Our rookie qb will be very lucky to learn from you for a year or two."



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/01/2012 07:39AM by THE Truth.

Listen,

Obviously everybody else in the world knows that if you are a QB drafted #1 or #2 now days, you are expected to start from day 1....except you.

But hey, its cool.


But as far as having RG3 and Manning, that is a pipe dream. If we get RG3...we wont get Manning.

RG3 will require to many draft picks, and all FA signings will require *NEED* positions.

---------------------

"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

berkeley223 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> that's not going to happen for a lot of reasons.
>
> (1) tannhill at #6 is just way way to high for
> him
> (2) manning isn't going to sign with us when we
> just drafted a bigshot franchise in RG3, that's
> the situation everyone wanted to avoid in indy
> (3) we're not going to trade the farm for RG3 then
> have him sit for 3 years behind manning--see #2
> (4) I could see flynn going elsewhere, but SEA
> seems more likely to me than CLE


There are icicles in hell. I agree with berk.

Aqua&Orange Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Listen,
>
> Obviously everybody else in the world knows that
> if you are a QB drafted #1 or #2 now days, you are
> expected to start from day 1....except you.
>
> But hey, its cool.


Lol. You are basing that pronouncement on what...3 qb's??

Newton, Bradford, and stafford...and stafford definitely could have used a year on the bench.

The days of insane....must play contracts for top picks are over. There is no need for teams to rush top picksonto the field anymore.

If you are a good franchise...best player plays...period!

Draft status and contract mean nothing.


>
>
> But as far as having RG3 and Manning, that is a
> pipe dream. If we get RG3...we wont get Manning.
>

I never said it would happen. Only that it was my "ideal" outcome.

At least it gave us something to kick around all afternoon.

THE Truth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Knowing what I know TODAY...here's how I hope this
> all plays out:
>
> When FA starts on march 8th nobody knows if
> manning will be healthy.
>
> Flynn signs with CLEVELAND as Mike Holmgren sees
> him as another Matt Hasselbeck.
>
> Washington falls in love with Tannehill and
> decides to stay at #6 and take him there.
>
> St Louis trades us the #2 pick for a reasonable
> cost since we are the only serious bidder.
>
> We draft Rg3 @ #2.
>
> In may manning finally gets healthy enough to sign
> and we sign him.
>
> Manning starts. RG3 is the backup and we deal
> Moore for a mid round pick in next years draft.


I like It. Actually I love it. But to make it Perfect.........Indy Picks RGIII and we get Luck at #2.

THE Truth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> berkeley223 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > IF CLE and WAS otherwise get their QB and are
> out
> > of trade-up market, I think the price to go to
> #2
> > will be (1) our #1 this year; (2) our #2 and #4
>
> > this year; (3) our #2 next year; (4) our #3
> next
> > year; and (5) a player (maybe Bess).
> >
> > Would you pay that? Basically we are getting
> RG3
> > for 2 #2s, a #3, a #4, and Bess (we are
> swapping
> > #1s but we'd take Griffen with that pick
> anyway).
>
>
> So you think the price to move up from #8/9 to
> number 2 when we are the ONLY BIDDER is a high #1,
> a pair of 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th AND a player like
> Bess who is probably worth a 2nd rounder?????
>
> I'm scared to ask what you think it's going to
> cost to make that jump if we have to outbid two
> teams that arepi king ahead of us.

The only bidder? Not a chance. If CLE and WAs get QBs elsewhere, we may be the only bidder in the top 10, but you can bet SEA would move up, and other teams as well. Look at what ATL gave up to move all the way up into the top 10 last year. It's not going to be any cheaper to get RG3. If CLE and WAS were in the mix, the cost would be multiple 1st rounders. my scenario doesn't include that and takes into account the lessened competition for the pick----but you really think there'd be *no* competition for the heisman trophy winner?

ChyrenB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> berkeley223 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > that's not going to happen for a lot of
> reasons.
> >
> > (1) tannhill at #6 is just way way to high for
> > him
> > (2) manning isn't going to sign with us when we
> > just drafted a bigshot franchise in RG3, that's
> > the situation everyone wanted to avoid in indy
> > (3) we're not going to trade the farm for RG3
> then
> > have him sit for 3 years behind manning--see #2
> > (4) I could see flynn going elsewhere, but SEA
> > seems more likely to me than CLE
>
>
> There are icicles in hell. I agree with berk.

This truly must be bizzaro world. CB and I agree, and I disagree with Truth.

The Truth

You must be DREAMING!!!

My resolution is:

That they pick up Matt Flynn and he is the answer!

Not trade away any picks unless we are receiving more pics from it.

Not spend 20 million on Manning, he's not going to give us any discounts.

camaron, I am leaning to that plan as well. unlike other backup busts (feely, kolb, etc) flynn would be going to a system he already knows with coaches who know him better than anyone. If he can fix our QB problem, then we can spend our top-10 draft picks filling in the few remaining problem areas (right side of OL, pass rusher, safety).

camaron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My resolution is:
>
> That they pick up Matt Flynn and he is the
> answer!
>
> Not trade away any picks unless we are receiving
> more pics from it.
>
> Not spend 20 million on Manning, he's not going to
> give us any discounts.


Anyone that thinks Manning is getting top dollar is dreaming.

The only way he even approaches Franchise Tag money($15mill) is if he's 100% healthy...which he won't be for some time.

He's between a rock and a hard place. People aren't going to pay him for what he did in Indy. His salary there isn't that important...it was like a pension.

If he signs early in the process he's going to have to take less because of the questions surrounding his health.

If he waits until he's healthy...most teams won't have the cap space to over pay him.

No way Manning gets $20 mill next year. He'll be lucky to get $15.

berkeley223 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> THE Truth Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > berkeley223 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > IF CLE and WAS otherwise get their QB and are
> > out
> > > of trade-up market, I think the price to go
> to
> > #2
> > > will be (1) our #1 this year; (2) our #2 and
> #4
> >
> > > this year; (3) our #2 next year; (4) our #3
> > next
> > > year; and (5) a player (maybe Bess).
> > >
> > > Would you pay that? Basically we are getting
> > RG3
> > > for 2 #2s, a #3, a #4, and Bess (we are
> > swapping
> > > #1s but we'd take Griffen with that pick
> > anyway).
> >
> >
> > So you think the price to move up from #8/9 to
> > number 2 when we are the ONLY BIDDER is a high
> #1,
> > a pair of 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th AND a player like
> > Bess who is probably worth a 2nd rounder?????
> >
> > I'm scared to ask what you think it's going to
> > cost to make that jump if we have to outbid two
> > teams that arepi king ahead of us.
>
> The only bidder? Not a chance. If CLE and WAs get
> QBs elsewhere, we may be the only bidder in the
> top 10, but you can bet SEA would move up, and
> other teams as well. Look at what ATL gave up to
> move all the way up into the top 10 last year.
> It's not going to be any cheaper to get RG3. If
> CLE and WAS were in the mix, the cost would be
> multiple 1st rounders. my scenario doesn't include
> that and takes into account the lessened
> competition for the pick----but you really think
> there'd be *no* competition for the heisman trophy
> winner?

Actually I said only "serious" bidder in my initial post.

I think there would be other "serious" bidders, Seattle, for one

If Manning is a FA....I garauntee he will get top dollar.

---------------------

"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

Aqua&Orange Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If Manning is a FA....I garauntee he will get top
> dollar.


Kyle Rudolph is still waiting to get paid on your last guarantee...

"Top Dollar" for a QB is the $23 mill manning got this past year.

He's not getting that.

I bet an injured manning will get at $10mm guaranteed, the rest incentive laden. Still a lot of $$ for a guy who may never play again. Some team will pay it, it's like buying a lottery ticket---if it pays off, look out

This.

---------------------

"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

THE Truth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No way Manning gets $20 mill next year. He'll be
> lucky to get $15.

No football comment here but when an old-timer like me remembers what a big thing it was for Mickey Mantle to be paid $100,000 a year in 1961, how that was a watershed moment for sports, it blows my mind to think that we can talk about someone being "lucky" to get $15 million.

berkeley223 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I bet an injured manning will get at $10mm
> guaranteed, the rest incentive laden. Still a lot
> of $$ for a guy who may never play again. Some
> team will pay it, it's like buying a lottery
> ticket---if it pays off, look out

I think that's the direction it will go.

If it were me....and assuming hes not 100% when he signed...I'd give him a couple of mill up front and a roster bonus for the rest that is triggered if he's on the roster opening day.

I wouldn't pay him more than 16-17 mill.

so Truth, would you rather have flynn or manning, assuming we can have only one and by the time we sign manning we won't be more than 60% sure he will ever play again at a high level (and even then he's got just 2-3 years tops left in him)?