I was thinking about the curse of being a "sure thing", and was wondering how often something is thought to be a sure thing or a dream team vs how often that tends to fall short...It is almost like the Madden cover or SI cover curse of past. I always believed that when people consider a guy or deal a sure thing, it is like the whole "eating the cheese" dilema... You have no place to go but down.. High expectations and labels, can tend to be the demise of many of men... Lowered expectations tend to make the results and timeframe more realistic for success...I am not saying Andrew Luck will have this problem, but more being realistic about how often these type of terms are used to describe, and how often that winds up not being the case... more then it is accurate that is for sure IMO. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, etc none of which considered a sure thing... I am not sure, even Peyton Manning tooks years to develop, and he was suppose to be the most pro ready QB of our time... Our teams problems need to be solved and it isnt the physical attributes of one player that is going to solve it IMO... Look at Lucks ex coach, Harbaugh's offensive knowledge in San Fran, he got Alex Smith to put up 48 pts on the Buccanears, not to shaby defense last week. Alex Smith looked like Joe Montana last week... I am not saying that if we have the chance dont draft him, I am just skeptical about a sure thing...

He's no Channing Crowder, that's for sure.

(R/J)ay Wrote:
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> He's no Channing Crowder, that's for sure.


nor Ray Lucas or Jay Fiedler, that is for sure.

mmmmm.....cheese

I'm thinking that those that consider Andrew Luck as an instant superbowl title are waaay off base. After the vetting process of high school football and then the college football level I am of the opinion that the athletes that actually reach the pro football level are pretty damn close in physical and mental ability and that the major difference is the technique acquired through the interaction with coaches of varying philosophies and abilities along the way. Football is a team sport. A chain is no stronger than it's weakest link and by association a football team is no better than it's most ineffective player. Most of us would agree that even Brady behind our offensive line would not go very far into the post season and yet Henne is the problem and Luck would be an instant cure. Football is a complex sport, there are many players doing a variety of different things that affect the overall outcome. Brandon drops an easy pass that affects the stats of the QB that has the misfortune of throwing to him and the fans are ready to lynch the QB. Fans, by nature, expect alot and, when disappointed expect an instant solution that they can clearly see because somebody has pointed it out to them. Most of us fans on this bulletin board are or have been employed in fields other than football but yet we think we know much more than those that do it for a living.
Is Luck a sure thing?? Hell no, not on this team. All the planets would have to line up perfectly at the start of the season and 31 other teams would have to have major issues. Go Phins. Beat those worthless jest.

In this league, there is NEVER a "sure thing" involving players or coaches. Anybody that follows this franchise should know that (See:Bill Parcells).

Rick

But this is also a league of taking chances and making some medium-to-high risk decisions.

We understand that if we stick with Matt Moore and/or Chad Henne for the future our franchise is gonna stay in the bottom 10.

But, to be the best, you have to take chances, and if we were to land Luck, and if he is what is expected, then our franchise could win a Superbowl.

For the life of me, I cant understand why people are even debating our desire to draft a top rated QB, whether it be Luck, Jones, or Barkley. Even if they are a bust, they will be better than what we have now. Plus, a bust in the current draft standings isnt as bad (financially) as it was just a couple years ago. Busts will be much more managable.

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"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"

The first pass Luck throws incomplete people will throw him under the bus and the whole process will start over again.The off with their head approach takes you only one way.... backwards.

Agreed, there is no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL. However, we have to as others have stated, take chances.

We have to draft players that have the look of stars...Luck has that, and IF we can get him, we need to. Regardless of the risk that he turns out to be a bust.

Oh, and Brady on this team would have us at least 3-1 right now. Poise, field presence, knowledge, decisiveness, and accuracy above and beyond that demonstrated by an admittedly improved Chad Henne would be the difference. Brady alone would make this team 50% better than it is right now because he'd make everyone around him better. Defensive issues, poor O-Line, or not.

With Brady at our helm we beat the Pats, Browns, and Chargers...and maybe even beat the Texans.

Right I agree, but what you insinuating without saying it, is that Luck is Brady, I would disagree. I also disagree with the assumption you make out of the gate Luck would perform like Brady... Qb's need time to develop, most of them take 3 years or longer. Chad Henne has shown me that development... SO to think ANdrew Luck is going to lead us to a playoff victory within three years of drafting him is a long shot at best.. Matt Ryan didnt lead his team to a playoff victory yet, and he is in his 4th year? Mark Sanchez has lead his team to more playoff victories then any young QB of our time in his 2 year career, and he is much worse then Henne... I surely would not want Sanchez... Matt Ryan, nothing..... DO you understand? You build a team not a player... Sanchez sucks donkey balls, his team more specifically defense, is why. Big Ben isnt that great of a Qb, he has what 2 rings? WHy? RUnning game and defense... Everybody just wants this miracle tonic in Andrew Luck to come sweep them away into fairy tale land.......Calgon take me away..lol... If Dan marino's era didnt teach you not to place all your eggs in one Qb basket, I am not sure what will... I want a team then a QB, not a QB then a team, that recipes fails all the time...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/15/2011 10:47AM by Crowder52.

As we have all seen, Brady's worst games are when he is pressured and rattled. All that poise is out the window when he is running for his life and forced to make hurried throws. NE has one of the best lines in the league. They make Brady look good, not the other way around. Behind our OL Brady would look like a 6th round pick.

Crowder52 Wrote:
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> Right I agree, but what you insinuating without
> saying it, is that Luck is Brady, I would
> disagree. I also disagree with the assumption you
> make out of the gate Luck would perform like
> Brady... Qb's need time to develop, most of them
> take 3 years or longer. Chad Henne has shown me
> that development... SO to think ANdrew Luck is
> going to lead us to a playoff victory within three
> years of drafting him is a long shot at best..
> Matt Ryan didnt lead his team to a playoff victory
> yet, and he is in his 4th year? Mark Sanchez has
> lead his team to more playoff victories then any
> young QB of our time in his 2 year career, and he
> is much worse then Henne... I surely would not
> want Sanchez... Matt Ryan, nothing..... DO you
> understand? You build a team not a player...
> Sanchez sucks donkey balls, his team more
> specifically defense, is why. Big Ben isnt that
> great of a Qb, he has what 2 rings? WHy? RUnning
> game and defense... Everybody just wants this
> miracle tonic in Andrew Luck to come sweep them
> away into fairy tale land.......Calgon take me
> away..lol... If Dan marino's era didnt teach you
> not to place all your eggs in one Qb basket, I am
> not sure what will... I want a team then a QB, not
> a QB then a team, that recipes fails all the
> time...


RE: Crowder, were you addressing this to me? If so, I never made a comparission between Brady and Luck. I also didn't insinuate or assume a comparisson either. I agree with you that the idea of Luck taking our team to the playoffs in his rookie season is a stretch. And, I agree that a great player singularly wont get it done...but we are not in that position as a team. We do have talent on defense as well as talent on offense. We have a running game that's looking good as long as Thomas stays healthy and we have some youth and speed on both sides of the ball. We do have holes to fill but the sky is NOT falling and we DONT need to blow up the entire team. the point I made was pretty clear, but I'll make it again...

Brady on the Dolphins as the team stands today, player for player, has us at 3-1 and maybe 4-0 on the year...a player of his caliber can have that effect when he's surrounded by talent...which we do have. We could do with more to be sure but for people to say we don't have any is incorrect. Luck would NOT have that same effect, not immediately anyway...nor would ANY other rookie out of the gate.

RE: Hooligan, Brady is decisive enough that he makes quick throws to hot reads and completes enough throws to make our offense click. Once it starts doing that people back off on the blitzes. Then that opens up areas for Thomas and Bush. Yes, pressure does rattle him as it does any QB but he is poised enough to take advantage of the talent we have to great effect.

Ken- but the problem in the first 3 games was not the QB position and Henne. The defense that is pretty good has been ranked last in the league and been the huge problem and reason we are 0-4 in my opinion... The offensive line has been inconsistent at best. So that is where I get lost in this argument that Luck solves it, with a good defense and running game. I could make the same argument for Henne, that you just made for Luck. I personally think that solving the MLB and guard problem and we would have a play off winning team much faster then if this team gets blown up after the year and we draft Luck... If the defense played like they did last year we would be 3-1, it is not on Henne... It is on the horrible play of the MLB, and the lack of our defense to adjust to the offense.

i personally think henne has soem promise but our caoching staff and oline(goes back to coachign staff in my mind)hasnt done him any favors...i have always wondered what would have become of brady in another situation..dont get me wrong the man deserves his du einspite of what i we as phins fans feel about him but he came into a great situation and had a dream start which imo gave him(or at the very least fortified his swagger) IMO that swagger makes him ...had he been here or say the lions would he still be a top qb,,, i guess my point being if we are crappy enough to get luck does he then stand a chance to becoem elite...kind of a catch 22 which i why i hope we lose a bunch of tight hard fought games and whoever mannings backup is finishes the season in such a way that ohter teams are offering draft picks for the guy

Crowder: I agree wholeheartedly that Henne was not the problem this year and I've said that many time in the past...but, we need competition at the position and that competition must have the ability to upgrade the position and take the job from Henne. That makes both players better and by extension the rest of the team. I also agree the single biggest problem this year has been a defense that's like water through a screen door...not much resistance.

Luck does not solve it...but he has the potential to do so.

Henne has earned a spot on this team because he's shown improvement...there is no reason to think that he can't improve even further. Adding Luck to Henne along with a talented Moore and developing Devlin, is good for everyone.

Angryseas: Brady might not be the player he is if he'd been with a lesser team during his developmental period...but that was not the point of my post. The way he is now, would have the team we have now, at 3-1 minnimum. That also illustrates that we do have talent on the team contrary to what some here think.

oh i 100% agree brady on this current team would have us lokking much better even on def(team would have a different outlook and imo that would elevate the def) my point was more to expecting a rookie qb to coem in and be succesful to the point of turning an1-15 or 0-16 team around alwasy seems to be too much and ruins said prospect...if i were luck i would be pulling for thwe colts to go winless..not saying he or a prospect liek him couldnt light the fire that turns us around just trying not to get too caught up in the "once we get luck we are a lock to be an afc east power down the road"...imo we have problems to the core that need to be adressed in order for any potential franchise qb to truly reach that franchise qb level

Agreed. But, I still want another QB whether we draft 1, 2, 3, or where ever. Same story as the last ten years.

If Henne remains the starter and continues to improve...great. If he gets beat out, great, either way we win as fans.

I think we need to remember a few things here:

Luck is not a sure thing - there is no such thing. But, he is a very nice calculated risk.

The QB was not the reason we lost any games this year. Although the QB did improve from last year, he could not be counted on to take the team on his back and win a game in the 4th quarter. The coaching, the defense, the offensive line and the somewhat effective yet inconsistent play at the most important position in this hollywood league has made us what we are. Oh and four.

We need to start working towards being at least in the conversation at the end of the year (in future seasons).

We need to ask the football godz to end the now 40 year walk in the championshipless wilderness and begin to deliver the promised land.

Go Miami!!!

Suck For Luck!!!

The last "sure thing" draft pick I remember was one Tony Mandarich.
While I have no problems drafting an Andrew Luck, I would really hope that the coaching staff would evaluate ALL the QBs in the upcoming draft and pick the one that is best suited for the type of offense we plan on running. After all when there are two to choose from, one will end up being the flop.....i.e. Leaf/Manning.

Nahhh, the last "sure thing" I remember was Nndamnuku Suh (SPEL????).

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"When you suck long enough, you get a Hickey"