DOLPHINS: This is it
Kristoffer Shields
kms223 at hotmail.com
Tue Dec 8 20:24:31 GMT 2009
A couple things to add (yes, I'm bored and procrastinating on something):
If the Fins, NE, and the Jets ended up in a three-way tie for the division, no matter how it gets that way or what the records are, the Fins take the division (because we're 3-1 against those two teams, NE is 2-2, and NJY 1-3). So there could be a scenario where we would lose a tiebreaker to the Pats, but win it if the Jets forced a three-way tie.
On the strength of victory tiebreaker.... if NE lost to Carolina and won the rest of the way and the Fins were to win out (the most likely way it comes to strength of victory), then I believe (if they calculate it the way I think they do) you can figure it out by looking at the "uncommon" victories (in other words, throw out the victories we have in common because those records will cancel out). That leaves us with wins over the Jets, Carolina, and Pitt; NE with wins over Atlanta, Baltimore, and Buffalo. So it would come down to how those 6 teams do over the rest of the season (at the moment, ours are better by one game because Carolina is 5-7 while Buff is 4-8, and everyone else is 6-6...but that's obviously going to change).
> From: kms223 at hotmail.com
> To: dolphins-disc at phins.com
> Date: Tue, 8 Dec 2009 15:13:25 -0500
> Subject: Re: DOLPHINS: This is it
>
>
>
> If we win all four (big if, but probably necessary)....
> If NE loses to Buffalo, we would win the division because we would be 4-2 in the division and NE would be 3-3 (NE has losses to us and NYJ already, Buff would be the third).
> If NE beats Buffalo, but loses to an AFC team, we would have the same division record and the same "common opponents" record (again, assuming we win all 4). It would then go to Conference record, and we currently both have 4 conference losses. So if we win out, and NE loses to an AFC team, we would win the division based on Conference Record.
> If we win all four and NE loses to the Panthers, then wins out, it gets complicated. We'd have the same division record, the same common opponents record, and the same conference record. It would come down to "strength of victory," which is too hard to figure out now because it would come down to who beats whom around the league for the rest of the season....
>
> > From: dolfandave at att.net
> > To: dolphins-disc at phins.com
> > Date: Tue, 8 Dec 2009 19:55:40 +0000
> > Subject: Re: DOLPHINS: This is it
> >
> > We have to win all four but I thought NE MUST lose to Buffalo for us to win the division. Even then I am not sure we win the division as we would both be 4-2 within the division. Isn't this correct?
> >
> > ddave
> > -------------- Original message from Kristoffer Shields <kms223 at hotmail.com>: --------------
> >
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yeah. I'd still bet a lot on them to beat Cleveland, hehehe.
> > > Regardless, though, I think the original point stands. If the Fins lose to Jax on Sunday, it's more or less an elimination. Jax would pull two games ahead with the tiebreaker. NE plays Carolina, the Jets play TB, the Steelers play Cleveland, Baltimore plays Detroit... even Tennessee plays St. Louis. A loss
> > > would pretty much be a step back to almost everyone.
> > > But the reality of the playoff situation is that the Dolphins basically have to win out. We don't technically control our own destiny, but it's close. If the Fins win out and the Ravens lose once OR the Pats lose once in the last three weeks, the Fins are in. That's the simplest way. I personally don't think it will happen (though I hope I'm wrong)---these four games are tricky enough that I think it's likely that even if the Fins play well, they'll slip up in one of them. It's not out of the question to make the playoffs at 9-7, but it's a lot
> > > harder.....and if it's going to happen, the loss can't be this week. I'd feel a
> > > lot more confident about it if we still had Ronnie.
> > >
> > > Here's what I think is most interesting, though: last year, the Fins won the
> > > AFC East, of course, and hosted the Ravens in the first round. I know a lot of
> > > you may disagree, but I personally thought there was very little chance the Fins
> > > would win that game---I was thrilled they made the playoffs, but was prepared
> > > for it to be a quick trip. If the Fins were to make it this year, they would
> > > probably play one of the Broncos, Ravens, Pats, Bengals, or Steelers (could be
> > > Chargers) in the first round, depending on a lot of things..... Despite all the
> > > injuries, does anyone think the Fins wouldn't have a legit chance to beat any of
> > > those teams? Maybe not the Chargers, and the Bengals would be tough, but
> > > still.... That suggests to me that, at least relative to the rest of the
> > > mid-range AFC, the Fins have made some strides, no matter how this ultimately
> > > works out. Or, that I'm crazy.
> > >
> > >
> > > > From: richiewohlers at gmail.com
> > > > Date: Tue, 8 Dec 2009 11:21:27 -0800
> > > > To: dolphins-disc at phins.com
> > > > Subject: Re: DOLPHINS: This is it
> > > >
> > > > Don't forget the Steelers also lost to the Chiefs this year.
> > > >
> > > > On Tue, Dec 8, 2009 at 11:19 AM, Kristoffer Shields wrote:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > They sure should have. But Cleveland, geez.... they are historically bad.
> > > > >
> > > > > > From: richiewohlers at gmail.com
> > > > > > Date: Tue, 8 Dec 2009 10:05:13 -0800
> > > > > > To: dolphins-disc at phins.com
> > > > > > Subject: Re: DOLPHINS: This is it
> > > > > >
> > > > > > They should have beat Oakland at home!!!!!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > (I am bitter because I picked them in my suicide pool.)
> > > > > >
> > > > > > On Tue, Dec 8, 2009 at 10:04 AM, bill coddington <
> > > > > bcoddington at hotmail.com>wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Agreed, but Pittsburgh should beat Cleveland. They are still
> > > > > defending SB
> > > > > > > champs and I am hoping it comes down to our final game against them.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > From: richiewohlers at gmail.com
> > > > > > > > Date: Tue, 8 Dec 2009 09:39:54 -0800
> > > > > > > > To: dolphins-disc at phins.com
> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: DOLPHINS: This is it
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > After Pittsburgh lost at home to Oakland, I think the Steelers have
> > > > > no
> > > > > > > more
> > > > > > > > "easy" games this year.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > On Tue, Dec 8, 2009 at 9:36 AM, bill coddington <
> > > > > bcoddington at hotmail.com
> > > > > > > >wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Week 13 and we play the Jags - we win, we are both 7-6. lose and
> > > > > FIns
> > > > > > > are
> > > > > > > > > done. Everybody else in contention - Pitt, NYJ, Baltimore are all
> > > > > > > playing
> > > > > > > > > dogs and should win. We need a super effort from all to beat Jags.
> > > > > > > > > Garerard has given us fits in the past. Need Cam Wake involved
> > > > > more.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
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