DOLPHINS: Thoughts from the game

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run the numbers. you have a 95% chance of getting a point vs a 50%
chance of getting 2 points.

then what are the chances that no team scores again for the rest of
the game? Pretty low in my opinion, given the scoring trends up to
that point.

secondly i gave you an example of when chasing the 2 points cost a
team a game: super bowl 38.

Dropping points that you don't need yet could mean that you lose
options at the end of the game - and the end of games are a different
animal than the beginning of games - the defense is softer and the
clock management is different (and reviews ar no longer costly).

I submit that it's better to go for them when you need them
statistically speaking when given the same opportunity with less time
on the clock.

On 12/23/08, Mark S. Clark <clark.m.s at gmail.com> wrote:
> No, you're assuming the Giants will score again. My argument assumes that
> neither team scores another point. It wasn't midway thru the 3rd Q, it was
> the end of the 3rd Q. Carolina is up 21-13. Giants score a TD that made it
> 21-19. If you just go for the PAT (which is what they did), it makes it
> 21-20 (which is what happened)...you still need a FG to win.
> If you go for 2 and miss, the score is 21-19. A FG still puts you up. Little
> difference from getting the PAT. But if you go for 2 and make it, the score
> is 21-21...and that's the wrong decision?
> How do you figure?
>
>
> Mark
> ====
> Sent from my Blackjack II
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mark L. Diana <mdiana at tulane.edu>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 23, 2008 10:58 AM
> To: General Discussion of the Miami Dolphins <dolphins-disc at phins.com>
> Subject: Re: DOLPHINS: Thoughts from the game
>
> But your argument assumes Carolina will score, thus the need for a two-
> point conversion later in the game. I realize that is what eventually
> happened, but in the middle of the 3rd quarter, nobody knew that would
> happen. In my view, it was essentially meaningless to go for two at
> that point in the game, and I thought Coughlin was exactly right not
> to. If he did, and failed (quite possible), he needs a field goal to
> win, and a TD if Carolina scores a FG. But, if Carolina scores a TD,
> he know needs two scores to win. That to me is the biggest reason to
> go for one. You have a high percentage of making it, and if Carolina
> scores a FG or a TD, it's still a one possession game. On the other
> hand, if he goes for two and makes it, he still needs another score,
> that is it is still a one possession game, so he really doesn't gain
> anything. To me, in that situation, with that much time left, you go
> for the percentage play, and kick the PAT.
>
>
>
> On Dec 23, 2008, at 1:50 AM, Mark S. Clark wrote:
>
>> Yeah, but this wasn't a case of going for two will make it so you're
>> only down by 3 instead of 4, this was "2 points will tie the game"!
>> What if they hadn't scored a TD for the rest of the game? What if
>> the Panthers had scored a FG to put them up by 4 so that the Giants
>> would now HAVE to score a TD?
>>
>> No, when a 6 point TD puts you 2 points behind midway through the
>> second half, you go for two.
>> If they miss, a FG will still put them ahead. It was one of those
>> situations where they were likely going to have to convert a 2
>> pointer anyway at some point, so why not try now when you have the
>> chance? You may not get another one. Down by one or down by two, you
>> need a score. Why not try and tie it?
>>
>>
>> Mark
>>
>> On Tue, Dec 23, 2008 at 12:50 AM, Gmail <ldouglas at gmail.com> wrote:
>> my rule is - never go for 2 until halfway through the 4th quarter if
>> you're only down a score. . It cost John Fox a Super Bowl.
>>
>> On 12/23/08, Mark S. Clark <clark.m.s at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > On Mon, Dec 22, 2008 at 10:14 PM, Danny Nelson
>> <cheesefrog at usa.net> wrote:
>> >
>> >> As for going for two- my rule has always been to not do it until
>> you
>> >> really
>> >> need to.
>> >>
>> >
>> > Well, I don't know if you watched the Giant game last night, but
>> there was a
>> > situation where the Giants, down by 8 during the closing minute of
>> the 3rd
>> > quarter, scored a touchdown to put them down by 2. Instead of
>> going for two
>> > to tie it, they just went for the PAT. To me, this means Coughlin
>> assumed
>> > they would score another TD and they would go for two on that one.
>> That's
>> > quite presumptuous and arrogant if you ask me, and until they
>> indeed scored
>> > another TD and successfully converted the 2-pointer, I was really
>> hoping
>> > that they would lose by one.
>> > I can almost understand arguments to just play it safe with the
>> PAT if it's
>> > early in the first half or if the TD/PAT puts you UP by 6, but I
>> think the
>> > end of the 3rd quarter is late enough in the game that you want to
>> go for 2
>> > if it will tie the game.
>> > If I was a Giant fan, I would have absolutely livid.
>> >
>> >
>> > Mark
>> > --
>> > Any clod can have the facts, but having opinions is an art.
>> >  - Charles McCabe
>> >
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>>
>> --
>> Any clod can have the facts, but having opinions is an art.
>>  - Charles McCabe
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