This is a moderated phorum for the CIVILIZED discussion of the Miami Dolphins. In this phorum, there are rules and moderators to make sure you abide by the rules. The moderators for this phorum are JC and Colonel.
It seems that the negotiated salary cap "floor" for 2021 will be $175 million. While I don't know what that means in terms of what the actual cap will be I would suspect it won't increase, as was previously supposed, to about $210 million.
If true, it looks like we have:
- about $165 million committed in 2021 to the top 51 player salaries for that year
- about $18.7 million in unused 2020 cap space that could be rolled over into next year
This translates into about $28 million cap space for us in 2021 at the $175 million floor.
By no means does this put us into any kind of rarified air with a number of teams having more cap space (even taking into account the # of players under contract) in 2021. That said, if the cap is near the $175 million floor, a pretty big handful of teams will seemingly have a pretty difficult time meeting it...teams like the Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Chiefs, Bears, Raiders, Steelers and Vikings all project to not currently be able to meet the $175 million mark even with 2020 rollover cap. Further, about 1/2 of those teams don't even have the minimum number of players under contract in 2021. Interestingly, the next couple of teams that "barely make it" are the Texans and Cowboys, but both of them are likely faced with some pretty significantly higher spending on the QB position in 2021.
Back to the Dolphins specifically, the way contracts have been constructed recently seems to put us in a good position to make additional cap moves if advantageous. Without touching "key cog" players that could free up even more, we could free up an additional $33 million by cutting players like Ogbah, McCain, Davis, Jordan Howard, Grant, Rowe, Fejedelem and Hurns. This would put us in the top 5 of 2021 space (though, admittedly other teams can probably also make similar cuts). The cuts would come at a financial cost of $6.7 million in dead money. I'm not advocating for cutting any of these players necessarily...but simply noting that we have positioned ourselves to be flexible in the near term, at a time when such flexibility could be even more valuable than usual.
I would be absolutely thrilled if we won a SB with Tua on his rookie contract and had to face the difficult decision of whether and how to keep him beyond the rookie contract.
My best guess is that the Mahomes contract will stand for a relatively long time as unique because:
- I think he's unquestionably the single best QB in the league for now...no one is really all that close
- the effect of covid on the salary cap - though temporary - will have a longer tail and cause a great deal of thinking twice. As I noted, my guess is that 1/4 of the teams will be getting rid of key players they don't want to
- I think we're shifting to a reality in which quality QB supply exceeds demand overall
We already see former SB QB and league MVP Newton taking an obscenely low contract and 5000 yd club member Jameis opting to sit behind Brees in NO on a similarly low contract w/o even the limited upside. While these provide legitimate foreshadowing, I think the litmus test will be what the Cowboys and Texans do.
Frankly, the Watson situation seems to have more variables and is, therefore, more difficult to evaluate. Though, in summary, even though he is young, proven and very talented, I don't see him getting a Mahomes-like deal.
Dak is a different story in my mind. My guess is that even if he duplicates his 2019 season, the top end for any multi-year contract will be short of what Russell Wilson got. I think the Cowboys will be thinking "we got Dalton for 1 yr @ $3 mill...we can probably keep him for 15 or less per year for the next couple years, potentially with only marginally less return at the position"...with Dak thinking "I really don't want to enter the young, talented veteran QB pool with people like Cam & Jameis taking minimum wage".
I really think both take a shorter contract for less money than would have been the normal supposed next contract for each. There may be some creativity that ties part of their compensation to the cap in future years as a hedge for both sides.
The way things are going, we probably won't see NFL football this season. College players hoping to improve their worth in 2020 won't be on the field to gain experience or to impress. What about the 2021 NFL Draft? NFL teams don't know who can play and who can't from their picks in 2020. Will the NFL actually play football in 2021?
The constant uptick in new infections continues to stymie everything we enjoy. I watched baseball and soon the Marlins were stymied because of the infections mounting on the team. Games postponed. Baseball season could come to a quick end in days.
Aside from sports...going out to dinner--quashed. This virus has knocked the US on its ass. We are trying to get off the deck and things across the country are chaotic. I am a law and order guy and find the destruction for only one purpose, that is, to ruin the USA.
I am not against paying a superstar QB, in a general sense, precisely because the past 20 SB's have been overwhelmingly won by superstar QBs. The trick is - how much do you pay a superstar QB and still have sufficient cap resources to build the rest of the team around him.
In the past 20 years, the average winning QB of the Super Bowl consumed 6.6% of his team's cap space in the year they won the Super Bowl. The highest cap consumption among them was Tom Brady in 2018 at 12.2%. In only 5 years did they exceed 10% of the cap, and 2 of those years were Eli Manning (who I did not count as superstar, though he's a personal fave) in 2011 and Peyton Manning in 2015 when his mind was certainly still superstar but his arm was failing him.
Russell Wilson (another personal fave) won the SB and started another on his rookie contract where he was less than 1% of the cap. Starting in 2016 and projecting thru the end of his contract in 2023, he is projected to account for an average annual percentage of cap space (not yet downward adjusted for covid impact) of 13.8% with the years remaining being between 15-16.4%.
Drew Brees - when he won in 2009 was 8.7%. His average thereafter was 12.7%
Big Ben won 2 SBs while averaging 5.3% of the cap...since then has averaged 12.1%.
Rodgers won @ 8.7% and thereafter averaged 11.8%.
The genius of Tom Brady - and certainly I'm sure it helped to be married to someone who seemingly contributed 2/3 to the pair's wealth on her own - was that in his 6 years of winning, he averaged 7.7%. Take away his one year at 12.2% and his average for the other 5 wins is 6.1%.
Mahomes - who I've already said I believe to be the unique, single best QB currently by a long shot - won it last year at 2.4% and is at 2.4% for 2020, but from 2021-2024 averages 14.6% (again, w/o taking into account any downward adjustments to the cap due to covid).
Though I view the historical data as both basically inarguable and informative for the future, I wouldn't say that it creates a hard, fast, unbreakable rule for all time. If the next 5 winning SB QBs are:
- Brees @ 11.9%
- Roethlisberger @ 19.2%
- Rodgers @ 17.5%
- Wilson @ 16.2%
- Mahomes @ 15.6%
then I would probably say the more recent history suggests you can (maybe even should) spend 15-16% of your cap on a superstar QB. But, if I combine the past 20 years of history with the current context of covid's downward pressure on the cap and my perception of starting (not Mahomes level) QB oversupply, I think that the concept of paying a superstar QB will look different than it has for at least the past 10 years.
I think 12.5% of the cap is the max I would pay out to my QB. I don't buy into dropping the big money on the qb after 1 superbowl win. I would rather spread the money out into other positions. That sustains winning.
I really doubt we get a complete nfl season this year. NCAA football is not looking good with some of the teams reporting high numbers of positive test.
The USA has come thru civil war, cholera, yellow fever, spanish flu, defeated fascism, brought down the iron curtain, etc. It's just how you manage a crisis. Unfortunately we suck in this situation. COVID will not destroy the USA but stupidity and ignorance will.
I mentioned the salary cap. That's what this thread is about.
Why does every thread , every topic have you including Our ex QB and a personal attack?
You keep saying Im dumb but Im not the one who cant have an intelligent discussion .
Sorry your buddy and lawyer is gone.I had nothing to do with that.I say let's move on and discuss football and the Miami Dolphins.If I was your Lawyer I'd tell you to move on and stop referencing things not allowed here and stop attacking people or you might be as well. Let's get back to football.
Good Luck in the Hurricane tommorrow.
I'm working OT as we speak throughout This weekend.
Nothing in cement , BUT......The Miami Dolphins would likely end up with the 5th pick in the 2021 NFL draft if the season is canceled. I know no one wants to wait until Sept. 2021 for Football but in the unlikely event it does happen at least that is a possible silver lining.
"This is not something that is a rumor but it would make sense given the fact that the season wasn’t played. That being said there are teams out there who would take issue with keeping the 2020 order and if enough owners voice their displeasure it could lead to a vote that instead may turn to a lottery system or in the event a partial season is played, using those standings or perhaps a simmed season based on the current play. "
I cant see a Lottery being used and the Chiefs getting a #1 pick thats would be seriously wrong. Using the same stats as 2020 makes the most sense.
College football is up in the air as well. Unknown where those players will be.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/04/2020 08:46AM by TreasurecoastPhinsfan.