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          Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
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This is a moderated phorum for the CIVILIZED discussion of the Miami Dolphins. In this phorum, there are rules and moderators to make sure you abide by the rules. The moderators for this phorum are JC and Colonel
Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: dolphan4545 ()
Date: April 15, 2020 07:43PM

I am stunned that the Vegas oddsmakers have us winning just two games next year. I find it amusing, but why would they say something like that? Last year, with minimal talent, we still won five games. So, after signing some excellent free agents and having 14 draft picks (or thereabouts) we're supposed to be substantially WORSE? I don't think so. However, if we were anywhere near that bad, wouldn't we be in an excellent position to draft one of the QBs in what I have been told is a much superior QB class? Maybe we should think about trading this year's 5 and pick up another 1 in next year's draft and other considerations . Also, I'm hearing from multiple sources that the picks that we do have next year might end up being higher picks than they are now. We could still pick up a potentially promising QB in the later rounds this year, and if he doesn't work out, we would have the ammunition and the placement to get a true franchise QB next year. Personally, I covet Trevor Lawrence, but they say that there are several really talented QBs in that class. Something to think about.

Rick

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: mizzou15 ()
Date: April 16, 2020 03:13AM

Yeah I agree. We win more than 2 games in 2020. We have a tough start with 4 away games. Its 2020 so we should focus on the 2020 draft.
Im beginning to think the 2020 qbs will turn out ok. Was looking at film of Fromm from 2018 and he was pretty good. Georgia lost 5 WRs from that squad. Fromm had problems with the new WRs in 2019. Love as its been covered lost 9 starters from his 2018 O. That contributed to his bad stats in 2019. I have always liked Hurts. Then you have Eason and the qb from Wazzu. I think one of these guys will be there at #37. Might consider Love at #18 or #26.

We will have Fitz, Rosen in his 2nd year and a guy like Hurts or Fromm at qb in 2020. That will be an upgrade.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: samsam3738 ()
Date: April 16, 2020 07:36AM

I think thats a posibility and good idea too. I agree. I hope they adquire another first next year in order to move up and have a chance of drafting lawrence.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: 808phan ()
Date: April 16, 2020 08:20AM

I'll have to visit my daughter in Vegas when this virus crap is over and place some bets at a sports book while I'm at it. No way we win only two games. That's total bullshit. I like it when this team is underrated and wins, it'll make me some money. It'll be like giving all the naysayers the finger when we win.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: jlyell13 ()
Date: April 16, 2020 03:39PM

I see 8-10 need to place some bets

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: tsstamper ()
Date: April 16, 2020 10:15PM

I'm seeing an over/under of 6 wins for us in 2020 according to odds posted on ESPN (not my go-to source, but a top google search result). 2 wins seems WELL below what ought to be anticipated...both stunning & amusing, as noted above.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year! Correction
Posted by: dolphan4545 ()
Date: April 21, 2020 09:06AM

I definitely did read this about Vegas' picks, but I have since read that the actual (or revised) number is SIX wins. This seems to me to be still pessimestic, but an influx of new talent frequently takes time to jell, and we might not have a particularly good season next year. We are all being told that another year on the sideline will allow Tua to heal completely. As a quote published in the Sun-Sentinel today says:

"The 6-foot-1, 215-pound Tagovailoa, who may be the riskiest draft prospect in recent history, appears to have made significant strides in rehabbing his surgically repaired hip."

I'm curious as to where this information comes from. With the HIPPA laws as they are, it wasn't a doctor, certainly not Tua's doctor, and so this info appears to be coming from Tua's camp. Obviously not an objective source, although the national talking heads have seemed to have accepted it as gospel. It really doesn't matter how good the kid is on the field anyway, and I haven't heard anybody say he isn't good. But, if this kid isn't on the field, and the past evidence suggests he will miss significant time, he won't be able to do the job we need him to do.
Too many local commentators seem to ignore this, or just minimize it. I believe this MUST be made a major part of the evaluation. I agree with Michael Lombardi's assessment that Tua is "brittle". So, at this time, I-and apparently more of the fans than these commentators want to believe- do NOT believe that Tua is a viable option. Having said that, I DO believe in Brian Flores, and if Tua is his pick I will do a 180 and support him completely.

On another note- I'm not a fan of Tua's, but I can still pronounce his name. Why can't ANY of the so-called "professionals" on the NFLNetwork or ESPN do so? There is no "u" or "n" in his last name- and NOT ONE of the talking heads bothered to learn how to pronounce it correctly?!? Pathetic. As Bill Belichick says-"Do your job!"

Rick



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/21/2020 09:15AM by dolphan4545.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year! Correction
Posted by: captkoi ()
Date: April 21, 2020 11:45AM

I hear ya, dolphan4545. Tua's injuries concern me. Sure, he will probably be sitting on the sideline for most of the season, if not all of the season. No guarantee he won't go down again, either his hip or something else. He isn't that tall, but should that be held against him (Flutie, Brees)?

I'm really not sure what the Fins' front office will do. If a talent like Simmons is sitting there at 5, can the Fins truly pass on him? If I was in Grier's shoes, I would take him in a heart beat. Get me a QB later. Not saying it won't happen, but I don't see any of these QBs as elite. They range from good to very good.

That's my opinion!

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: 808phan ()
Date: April 22, 2020 08:22AM

6 win over/under sounds like more realistic odds than 2 wins. I'll take the over.

As for tomorrows draft, I have no clue what direction Miami is taking. With that said, I'll support just about whatever they decide. I have a lot of faith with Flores and I'm sure Grier is listening to Flores about the teams needs. If Miami ends up taking Tua at 5 then so be it. I just read that they're confident he's healthy from reports they've had. If Miami takes an offensive lineman or a player somewhere on defense then so be it. I like how Flores coaches this team and I'm confident this team will improve especially in 2021.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: captkoi ()
Date: April 22, 2020 11:33AM

808phan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 6 win over/under sounds like more realistic odds
> than 2 wins. I'll take the over.
>
> As for tomorrows draft, I have no clue what
> direction Miami is taking. With that said, I'll
> support just about whatever they decide. I have a
> lot of faith with Flores and I'm sure Grier is
> listening to Flores about the teams needs. If
> Miami ends up taking Tua at 5 then so be it. I
> just read that they're confident he's healthy from
> reports they've had. If Miami takes an offensive
> lineman or a player somewhere on defense then so
> be it. I like how Flores coaches this team and I'm
> confident this team will improve especially in
> 2021.

*************************************************

808phan. I agree with what you said. If it is Tua at 5, so be it. He will probably be sitting the first season, anyway. If Tua turns out to be the QB everyone thought him to be, with no further injuries, then Miami made a good choice. If Miami does take Tua, it would be a good idea to take another QB just in case. I read about that, so it isn't my bright idea, but I agree with the author.

I also wouldn't have a problem with the Fins taking whomever is on the top of their list, no matter the position. Miami has holes all over their roster that they have to fill, so no matter who is available at 5, it's the smart thing to do.

I want Miami to take a QB at 5 ONLY if they truly believe in him. There will be enough QBs to grab later in the draft.

Miami also still has Rosen. If he gets a fair shake and the coaches still don't see anything in him, then so be it. Get whatever they can for him. It's a shame Miami gave up a second rounder for him and not give him a real chance to show what he can do.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: 808phan ()
Date: April 22, 2020 01:33PM

captkoi Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 808phan Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > 6 win over/under sounds like more realistic
> odds
> > than 2 wins. I'll take the over.
> >
> > As for tomorrows draft, I have no clue what
> > direction Miami is taking. With that said, I'll
> > support just about whatever they decide. I have
> a
> > lot of faith with Flores and I'm sure Grier is
> > listening to Flores about the teams needs. If
> > Miami ends up taking Tua at 5 then so be it. I
> > just read that they're confident he's healthy
> from
> > reports they've had. If Miami takes an
> offensive
> > lineman or a player somewhere on defense then
> so
> > be it. I like how Flores coaches this team and
> I'm
> > confident this team will improve especially in
> > 2021.
>
> *************************************************
>
> 808phan. I agree with what you said. If it is Tua
> at 5, so be it. He will probably be sitting the
> first season, anyway. If Tua turns out to be the
> QB everyone thought him to be, with no further
> injuries, then Miami made a good choice. If Miami
> does take Tua, it would be a good idea to take
> another QB just in case. I read about that, so it
> isn't my bright idea, but I agree with the
> author.
>
> I also wouldn't have a problem with the Fins
> taking whomever is on the top of their list, no
> matter the position. Miami has holes all over
> their roster that they have to fill, so no matter
> who is available at 5, it's the smart thing to
> do.
>
> I want Miami to take a QB at 5 ONLY if they truly
> believe in him. There will be enough QBs to grab
> later in the draft.
>
> Miami also still has Rosen. If he gets a fair
> shake and the coaches still don't see anything in
> him, then so be it. Get whatever they can for him.
> It's a shame Miami gave up a second rounder for
> him and not give him a real chance to show what he
> can do.

I know Fitz & Rosen are still under contract for 2020. It's possible they could have a competition for the starting job this season. But with the Chan Gaily as OC hire, I'm not sure. Fitz has already played under him so I don't know what to think.

It's quite possible Rosen was purposely kept on the sideline. He probably would have been slaughtered with the makeshift team the Phins had. I don't think he would have been in a better situation here than what he was in with Arizona. His numbers looked absolutely horrible with the three starts he had here. In fact, worse than where he came from. I think he was kept on the sideline so he wouldn't get killed if you ask me. This team wasn't ideal for a still raw QB to be in. Fitz on the other hand is a gunslinger, and with all the experience he has, he can get by and stay alive.

It'll be interesting tomorrow night. It's driving me nuts trying to guess what they're going to do, I'm looking forward to it.

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Re: Vegas- Dolphins TWO wins this year!
Posted by: tsstamper ()
Date: April 22, 2020 11:24PM

So, I’ve reached a point where – absent a Tunsil gas-mask bong event – in my opinion, there’s really no more new data that can possibly inform an opinion on Tua. Here’s where I am and why: I want the Phins to draft him at #5 or move up to #3 if necessary and at a reasonable cost (not much more than our #39 pick…definitely not any 1st rounders this year or next). My overriding reason – I can see Tua leading us to a Super Bowl (and hopefully more than one). That’s honestly it, with the rest of the post just being additional information related to that perspective and how I think the potential reward is greater than the potential risk.

- Every prospect has his warts
- Every NFL QB risks career-ending injury. But, NFL rules actually work in favor of the fragile QB.
- The things he’s good at already are difficult to teach and improve
- The risk of making a mistake on a high draft pick is actually relatively small (in relation to years before the CBA that limited rookie contracts)
- The cost of moving up to #1 seems to be astronomically higher than the potential difference in value between Burrow & Tua
- The economics favor building the team to compete for a SB around a highly skilled QB in his rookie contract vs. trying to do so when the QB takes up a massively larger % of your cap
- The unique situation we're in where it's not a "one & done" in the 2020 1st round (assuming, obviously, that we don't package them all in a trade that I don't think makes sense even to get Joey cool smiley

The main argument against taking a QB in the top 5 with the goal of winning the Super Bowl is history. Only two QBs taken in the top 5 since 1998 have won Super Bowls, and there aren’t any of Archie Manning’s progeny in this year’s draft. Meanwhile, winners include undrafted (who only became a starter when the 8th rounder ahead of him was injured), 6th rounders, 3rd rounders, 1st rounders who were picked after QBs who have never sniffed the SB, guys on their 2nd & 3rd teams. In fact, the guy closest to being a top 5 pick (Dilfer) won on his 2nd team…made it to the SB on the back of a generational defense…threw 12 completions for 153 yards in his SB win…and wasn’t even resigned after winning the SB. My perspective is that this history shouldn’t preclude us from taking a QB in the top 5, but should constantly remind us that we should unceasingly pursue potential SB-winning talent no matter who we draft in 2020 and how they perform thereafter.

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