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          1st round prediction
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1st round prediction
Posted by: jsm08 ()
Date: April 28, 2015 10:33AM

I predict we either trade up to 9 and get Parker or stand pat at 14 and take Gurley.

Either way I think it will be one of those two.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 28, 2015 11:03AM

If Gurley is there, we trade down and take DGB. That's why we signed GJ as a mentor. Or not.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: dolphaholic ()
Date: April 28, 2015 11:07AM

I think we move up to #3 and grab Shane Ray.........<<too soon?>>

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 28, 2015 11:08AM

I guess the Dion Jordan comparisons were right on for Randy G as well. smoking smiley

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: thegreathoo ()
Date: April 28, 2015 04:36PM

Looks like they are gunning for Gurley and Beasley at 14. It will be interesting to see who they pick if both are gone.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 29, 2015 03:06AM

I predict Gurley will be gone long before 14.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: toko34 ()
Date: April 29, 2015 03:35AM

I'm going to be really disappointed if Gurley is the Dolphin's selection. I don't believe it wise to select a RB in round 1 in today's NFL. Didn't we already learn this lesson with Ronnie Brown? Or how about looking at the Brown's 2012 blunder of Trent Richardson for another example.

The most glaring thing to notice in the trends of NFL drafting lately is that a RB has not been selected in the 1st round in the last 2 years of the draft. Doesn't matter how "good" Gurley is perceived to be, what a waste it will be.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 29, 2015 05:06AM

toko34 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm going to be really disappointed if Gurley is
> the Dolphin's selection. I don't believe it wise
> to select a RB in round 1 in today's NFL. Didn't
> we already learn this lesson with Ronnie Brown? Or
> how about looking at the Brown's 2012 blunder of
> Trent Richardson for another example.

That's like saying don't draft a DE because of Dion Jordan. You don't stop trying just because someone got it wrong and overvalued a prior pick.

The Browns made a bad decision. That's not a shocker. They do it every year. Ronnie Brown was over drafted because of a lack of talent that year. There were only about 7 or 8 players taken in the 1st who actually amounted to anything. Besides Ronnie was not that bad. He never became great but he just struggled with injuries. The best player in that 2005 draft was taken at #11.

>
> The most glaring thing to notice in the trends of
> NFL drafting lately is that a RB has not been
> selected in the 1st round in the last 2 years of
> the draft. Doesn't matter how "good" Gurley is
> perceived to be, what a waste it will be.

I am still not buying the perception of that trend. I think it has been overblown by the media just to have something to talk about. The only trend I saw was a lack of talent coming out of the NCAA at RB. There were no RB's taken because none were worthy.

Bishop Sankey was the first RB taken last year. That's a said state of the position. Not the need for RB's. There were just no 3 down RB's with any great measure of talent in 2014.

There were 2 RB's worthy of a first rounder the year prior (2013). LeVeon Bell (who I really wanted), and Eddie Lacey. Beyond those two, not much else.

This goes back for several years IMO. Maybe one or two good RB's in each draft. Some were undervalued and some were overvalued. There was just a shortage overall.

That will change this year as 2 or 3 will go in the first round and 10 more will go on the second day. I see some talent there so I think many will make a name for themselves.

Gurley is the best RB to come out in 8 drafts and Gordan is not far behind him. This will be similar to 2007 when AP and Marshawn were drafted at 7 & 12 except many more quality backs will be taken in addition. I think you can make an argument for Miami not taking Gurley but not not because teams do not want or need them or that he doesn't posses the talent.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 29, 2015 06:00AM

Just saw where one team has Gurley as the #1 overall prospect on their board.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: mizzou15 ()
Date: April 29, 2015 06:24AM

Gurley works at #14 I think he will be there. We overrated Brown he never looked that fast in college and it showed in the nfl. Bad vision picked wrong holes and always left yards on the field. Frank Gore was the best rb in that draft. We passed over him twice.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: THE Truth ()
Date: April 29, 2015 06:38AM

JoeFootball Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just saw where one team has Gurley as the #1
> overall prospect on their board.


That's my board...

winking smiley

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: berkeley223 ()
Date: April 29, 2015 06:53AM

Ronnie Brown wasn't even the starter on his own college team! Just a totally odd pick. Although he was better than Caddy Williams, who did start over him at Auburn. Terrible draft that year, Brown and Williams both top 5 picks, and A Rogers slid to the 20s....

________________________________________________________
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: toko34 ()
Date: April 29, 2015 07:38AM

I'm not even discussing talent. Look at it this way: How many Super Bowls have the Vikings been to with Adrian Peterson? How many times did the Bills get into the playoffs with their selections? How about the Chargers lately?

Even Ronnie Brown was a pretty decent running back.

But for what possible reason are we going to supplement a running game in an entire (NFL WORLD) that is is now pass-orientated?

All the rules now favor the Passing game...A RB is becoming sort of a rear spoiler on a sports car. It's nice but easy to get.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 29, 2015 09:20AM

Yeah, it's real easy to get an Adrian Peterson or a Ladanian Tomlinson. Wait what?

QB's don't win championships, complete teams do. Put an elite back around Tannehill and he is a better player. So is the line, so is the defense, so are the WR's.

I'm not even advocating we take him unless the top 3 WR's are gone but I'm not going to concede that an elite RB is not a dangerous weapon.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: THE Truth ()
Date: April 29, 2015 09:57AM

JoeFootball Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah, it's real easy to get an Adrian Peterson or
> a Ladanian Tomlinson. Wait what?
>
> QB's don't win championships, complete teams do.
> Put an elite back around Tannehill and he is a
> better player. So is the line, so is the defense,
> so are the WR's.
>
> I'm not even advocating we take him unless the top
> 3 WR's are gone but I'm not going to concede that
> an elite RB is not a dangerous weapon.

Exactly.

I mean how many titles did Dan Marino win with average or below average RB's?

How many did John Elway win before he hooked up with Terrell Davis?



Its true that the rules are geared towards the passing game. But that forces teams to play the pass on defense. If you can run the ball out of a spread offense then you can have an unstoppable offense because the defense is set up to play the pass.

Just look at Seattle. If you take Marshawn Lynch off that team they aren't a Super Bowl team the last two years, let alone a Super Bowl Winner.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: cshashaty ()
Date: April 29, 2015 10:20AM

Best defensive player on the board regardless of position. Just a hunch: Waynes or Johnson (cause Dolphins don't have a day one starter opposite Optimus Grimes) or Shelton.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/29/2015 10:26AM by cshashaty.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: Crowder52 ()
Date: April 29, 2015 12:21PM


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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: dolfanmark ()
Date: April 29, 2015 03:00PM

I'm predicting a trade down to pick up additional picks. I think the much publicized and long rumored interest in Gurley is all choreographed to entice someone to trade up. And if a team below us is in love with Gurley (maybe the Cowboys), but wants to call our bluff, I can even see us drafting Gurley and then trading him.

When you look at our needs and the depth of talent in the draft, we can't address our needs with our current set of picks. Not having a third rounder makes it very difficult, because any of the good guards or ILB are not going to be there in round 4.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: berkeley223 ()
Date: April 29, 2015 03:44PM

I never understood how pretending to be in love with a player would lead to a team that wants that player trading for your pick. If they thought you loved the player and wanted to take him wouldn't that prompt the team to trade with the team AHEAD of you defeating the purpose?

________________________________________________________
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: ChyrenB ()
Date: April 29, 2015 04:26PM

THE Truth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JoeFootball Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Yeah, it's real easy to get an Adrian Peterson
> or
> > a Ladanian Tomlinson. Wait what?
> >
> > QB's don't win championships, complete teams
> do.
> > Put an elite back around Tannehill and he is a
> > better player. So is the line, so is the
> defense,
> > so are the WR's.
> >
> > I'm not even advocating we take him unless the
> top
> > 3 WR's are gone but I'm not going to concede
> that
> > an elite RB is not a dangerous weapon.
>
> Exactly.
>
> I mean how many titles did Dan Marino win with
> average or below average RB's?
>
> How many did John Elway win before he hooked up
> with Terrell Davis?
>
>
>
> Its true that the rules are geared towards the
> passing game. But that forces teams to play the
> pass on defense. If you can run the ball out of a
> spread offense then you can have an unstoppable
> offense because the defense is set up to play the
> pass.
>
> Just look at Seattle. If you take Marshawn Lynch
> off that team they aren't a Super Bowl team the
> last two years, let alone a Super Bowl Winner.

I agree with all of the above from both authors. Just want to point out that when I mentioned drafting Gurley weeks ago, no one was on my side.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: toko34 ()
Date: April 29, 2015 05:00PM


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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: ChyrenB ()
Date: April 29, 2015 05:32PM

But Toko, who would have won the Super Bowl if Pete Carroll had handed the ball to "Beast Mode" on the final play of their possession instead of throwing a pass in this (admittedly) pass oreinted league?

And how much was "Beast Mode" responsible for Seattle getting there in the first place? I'd say a great deal.

I agree it's a pass oreinted league but when you can supplement your passing game with a good running game, that makes you all the more effective in both your passing and your running.

One of the reasons that both last year and the year before, the opposing defenses "let loose" with the pass rush on Tanny was not only the poor blocking but also the absence of a real running game threat.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: dolphaholic ()
Date: April 30, 2015 02:00AM


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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 30, 2015 03:15AM

Here's another reason why I would be hesitant to draft Gurley at 14.

2014 123 carries (911): injured knee
2013 165 carries (989): injured ankle
2012 222 carries (1385): full season

Lamar Miller only had 215 carries over the entire 16 game season. If I draft a RB at 14, he should be able to handle 280-300 carries per season as a 3 down back as we shift the focus of the offense to a running game. (and forget the fact that we are now pretty much benching a 1000 yard rusher).

Now, if you tell me they can divide the carries to say 220 for TG and 100 to LM, then I say it is not worth that high of a pick. That projects out to 1100 yards at 5 per carry for Gurley and probably 10-12 TD's. Miller is capable of that....so why not draft a complimentary back in the later rounds who can provide the power runs?

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: toko34 ()
Date: April 30, 2015 03:15AM

Chyren, it's not that I have a position against running backs..It is more like I think we already have what we need at the position in Miller, Williams and Gillislee.

For me it is more of a question of measuring limited resources (our draft picks) vs. the holes in the roster.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: dolphaholic ()
Date: April 30, 2015 03:48AM

JoeFootball Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here's another reason why I would be hesitant to
> draft Gurley at 14.
>
> 2014 123 carries (911): injured knee
> 2013 165 carries (989): injured ankle
> 2012 222 carries (1385): full season
>
> Lamar Miller only had 215 carries over the entire
> 16 game season. If I draft a RB at 14, he should
> be able to handle 280-300 carries per season as a
> 3 down back as we shift the focus of the offense
> to a running game. (and forget the fact that we
> are now pretty much benching a 1000 yard rusher).
>
> Now, if you tell me they can divide the carries to
> say 220 for TG and 100 to LM, then I say it is not
> worth that high of a pick. That projects out to
> 1100 yards at 5 per carry for Gurley and probably
> 10-12 TD's. Miller is capable of that....so why
> not draft a complimentary back in the later rounds
> who can provide the power runs?

It just makes no sense to use the #14 on a position with an already established starter, I agree we need a "thunder" to Millers "lightning" but isn't this a very deep draft at RB? Take a guy in the 4th/5th rnd to compliment Lamar.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: THE Truth ()
Date: April 30, 2015 04:13AM

JoeFootball Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here's another reason why I would be hesitant to
> draft Gurley at 14.
>
> 2014 123 carries (911): injured knee
> 2013 165 carries (989): injured ankle
> 2012 222 carries (1385): full season
>
> Lamar Miller only had 215 carries over the entire
> 16 game season. If I draft a RB at 14, he should
> be able to handle 280-300 carries per season as a
> 3 down back as we shift the focus of the offense
> to a running game. (and forget the fact that we
> are now pretty much benching a 1000 yard rusher).
>
> Now, if you tell me they can divide the carries to
> say 220 for TG and 100 to LM, then I say it is not
> worth that high of a pick. That projects out to
> 1100 yards at 5 per carry for Gurley and probably
> 10-12 TD's. Miller is capable of that....so why
> not draft a complimentary back in the later rounds
> who can provide the power runs?


Gurley is a terrific receiver and blocker. If we take him he's a franchise back who will get 25 touches a game.

Miller would have a roll this year, especially if Gurley won't be ready for a month. But if we take Gurley, this is miller's last year in Miami.

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: THE Truth ()
Date: April 30, 2015 04:28AM

dolphaholic Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Re: 1st round prediction
> Posted by: ChyrenB ()
> Date: April 29, 2015 08:26PM
>
> I agree with all of the above from both authors.
> Just want to point out that when I mentioned
> drafting Gurley weeks ago, no one was on my side.
>
> At least one person's been on your side chyren,
> I'm glad to see you finally start to realize that
> The Truth knows what he's talking about.
>
>
> Man Crush Lists...
> Posted by: THE Truth ()
> Date: February 18, 2015 07:36PM
>
> Here's my list (so far) of guys I'd like to see in
> a Dolphin uniform next year regardless of
> potential draft position... (with some video)
>
> RB- Todd Gurley ,


HahahahaHahaha... You didn't go back far enough. I was in favor of drafting Gurley with a top ten pick 6 months ago. Back when Bob was pushing for us to do something radical and take qb Brett Hundley.... eye popping smiley

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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: JoeFootball ()
Date: April 30, 2015 04:48AM


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Re: 1st round prediction
Posted by: THE Truth ()
Date: April 30, 2015 05:52AM

JoeFootball Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Gurley is a terrific receiver and blocker. If we
> take him he's a franchise back who will get 25
> touches a game.
>
> Miller would have a roll this year, especially if
> Gurley won't be ready for a month. But if we take
> Gurley, this is miller's last year in Miami.
>
> If we take Gurley he will likely be the best
> player left on the board. I agree he is a
> franchise back IF he can stay on the field. Hasn't
> done it since 2012....3 years ago.
>
> Like I said earlier, I think he is gone in first
> 10 picks anyway.
>
> We have gotten screwed by pass rushers SO BAD this
> year. Two before they even got drafted! Dion
> Jordan for being a punk. Shane Ray and Randy
> Gregory for being punks and not getting drafted to
> push some other players to 14.


I agree, It's unlikely he is there at 14.

I'm also open to the idea of taking Shane Ray at 14, or trading down and taking him

Jordan is never playing another down for us. Wake is probably playing his last season for us.

We definitely could use a guy who can rush the passer.

I'd much prefer him to a cb, even with the pot arrest.

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