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          Trading Up
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This is a moderated phorum for the CIVILIZED discussion of the Miami Dolphins. In this phorum, there are rules and moderators to make sure you abide by the rules. The moderators for this phorum are JC and Colonel
Trading Up
Posted by: klong56 ()
Date: March 25, 2009 02:48PM

I know this sounds crazy but have you considered with all the talk about pass rushers that we might be hinting towards trading up to get Orakpo. Paul Pasqualoni was in attendance today at Texas' Pro Day and reporters said Orakpo drew particularly close interest from Green Bay Packers General Manager Ted Thompson and Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni. I am not for or against this, I was just curious to see what your opinions on this.

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: dres9711 ()
Date: March 25, 2009 02:59PM

No way, there is more chance that the lions win the super bowl than this happening. I think there is more chance that we trade down and try and get more picks than trade up for less. The ONLY way this happens is if we swap first rounders and trade someone on our roster.... which is highly doubtful, because there is no one that is on our trading block worth that much. (unless someone thinks Beck is worth that much)

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: DolphinSam ()
Date: March 25, 2009 03:33PM

We're scouting several people we can't reach. I don't know why. But they're exploring all options, I guess. Trading up would be on the table on draft day, just because no options are off the table, but it's highly unlikely.

I hated Baltimore for giving away the farm and trading up to get Flacco, and thought it was a ridiculous move, but it turned out great for them and they have the piece of the puzzle they wanted. But they also have a lot of really good players. We, on the other hand, are a lucky group of no names and castaways who worked hard, were coached hard, and worked as a team to go farther than expected. There isn't one piece of the puzzle the Dolphins need. They need everything - more depth and talent everywhere.

But year by year we are upgrading, turning over the bottom half of the roster each season. Building the lines. And that's what I expect again in this draft.

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Phinsfan2 ()
Date: March 25, 2009 04:35PM


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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: dolfanmark ()
Date: March 25, 2009 05:03PM

It's actually more likely that we'll trade down. There is a lot of depth for DE/OLB conversion prospects this year. We'll definitely be able to get one in the 2nd round.

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Panteraize ()
Date: March 25, 2009 06:36PM

Any shot we can trade down with a team like Cleveland who has two 2nd round picks (one of which is only maybe 8 or 9 spots after our 25th overall pick) I'd much rather have 4 evenly spaced out 2nd round picks than that 25th pick in the 1st round. If we had four 2nd round picks we could probably land a real good corner, a linebacker like Barwin or someone who was slated to go in the bottom of the 1st but drops, an NT like Ron Brace, and who kows what else.

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: DolphinSam ()
Date: March 26, 2009 01:24AM

I agree with Phinsfan2, I don't think it's a problem picking up pass rushing linebackers. The team hasn't had any past trouble with it. I think we'll draft more than one. Still, I think it's likely #25 will also be used on an OLB, just because we're way down the draft, we don't need a RB, QB or LT, there's nothing much at ILB in round one, and he won't use it on a WR (although he should consider it). I think a corner we'll get in round two. So it's either OLB or picking someone to bolster the lines.

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Re: Trading Up
Date: March 26, 2009 06:25AM

i want vontae davis as our first if he is there, period. i say do everything we can to keep one second round and get another first round pick, we realy need two first round picks to make a HUGE push in fillin the holes we need davis, and mathew's

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Miami Reppa ()
Date: March 26, 2009 10:48AM

I feel differently than a lot of you guys. I LOVE ORAKPO, i watched quite a few texas games and I believe that he could be our missing piece. I would be willing to give up our 1 and 2b to move up and get this guy. I think he had HUGE potential and is an incredibly disruptive force. If we can package a deal to get him he is well worth it.

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Miami Reppa ()
Date: March 26, 2009 11:29AM

Phinsfan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It's a bad idea to trade up into the top ten for a
> pass rusher unless you are getting a Lawrence
> Taylor or a Reggie White.
>
> Here's an example of why:
>
> 12 players in the NFL posted double digit sacks
> last year.
>
> 2 of them were top ten picks (Julius Peppers and
> Mario Williams).
>
> 3 more were first round picks (DeMarcus Ware, John
> Abraham, Dwight Freeney).
>
> The other seven were selected between the 2nd and
> 5th rounds, with one (James Harrison) an
> undrafted FA.
>
> Since pass rushers can be found anywhere in the
> draft it really doesn't make sense to give up two
> or three picks to move up into the top ten for a
> guy that isn't a mortal lock Hall of Famer.


your stats are incomplete... Since Joey porter is the oldest drafted guy on the list lets look at pass rushers drafted from 1999 on

1999: DE (23), LB (31) - avg
2000: DE (24), LB (30)
2001: DE (21), LB (30)
2002: DE (24), LB (27)
2003: DE (26), LB (32)
2004: DE (24), LB (28)
2005: DE (20), LB (36)
2006: DE (22), LB (31)
2007: DE (22), LB (35)
2008: DE (24), LB (30)
-----------------------
Total DE (230), LB (310) = 540 potential passrushers

SO of a possible 540 drafted passrushers only 12 recorded double figure sacks in 2008 season (actually 11 since Harrison was undrafted). That means you have a 2% probability of drafting a double figure sack man going from the past 10 years of data. In other words you have to draft 100 pass rushers to get 2 that can get double figures sacks. They are extremely rare.

Now of those rare pass rusher 5 went in the first round (32 picks in first round) and 6 (almost the same amount) went in the next 6 rounds (212 picks in next 6 rounds)... I think that it is clear that you have a better chance at finding the needle in the first round of the hay stack.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2009 11:29AM by Miami Reppa.

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Northeast Fin Fan ()
Date: March 26, 2009 11:43AM

Impressive information reppa. Where did you get those stats?

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Jonathan Twilley ()
Date: March 26, 2009 01:40PM

Northeast Fin Fan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Impressive information reppa. Where did you get
> those stats?


Agreed! Nice job Reppa. What government grant did you receive to compile that information?

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Miami Reppa ()
Date: March 26, 2009 02:10PM

Jonathan Twilley Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Northeast Fin Fan Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Impressive information reppa. Where did you
> get
> > those stats?
>
>
> Agreed! Nice job Reppa. What government grant
> did you receive to compile that information?



lol... well obama has given a relatively large amount of stimulus grant money to the national institute of health (NIH), i think i managed to shave a bit off the top...grinning smiley

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: Phinsfan2 ()
Date: March 26, 2009 02:44PM


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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: DolphinSam ()
Date: March 26, 2009 03:45PM

Orakpo is a pure pass rusher only. He's a luxury not worth trading up to get. We do want good pass rushers to fall to us, but whatever's there is there. There are hordes of quality OLB's or DE's to convert to OLB's in this draft. There's absolutely no reason to trade up for that position.

On the other hand, there aren't enough ILB's, and Maualuga is a playmaker, and that's a position we're weak at, so I wouldn't mind trading up for him.

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Re: Trading Up
Date: March 26, 2009 07:44PM

we need two first round picks, to nab clay mathews, and vontae davis period thoughs two alone would REALY help our defense.

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Re: Trading Up
Posted by: RW13 ()
Date: March 27, 2009 05:53AM

Tuna has everyone guessing!

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