By Edgar Thompson | Tuesday, February 3, 2009, 09:58 AM


The Miami Dolphins’ improbable AFC East title and incredible turnaround will come with a price.

A season after they capitalized on one of the league’s softest schedules in 2008, the Dolphins will now face the toughest in 2009, according to figures presented by ESPN AFC East blogger Tim Graham.

The combined winning percentage of Dolphins’ opponents is an NFL-toughest .594 (152-104 combined record). The 13 teams the Dolphins will face have one fewer tie than the Carolina Panthers and one fewer win than the New England Patriots, who rank second and third, respectively.

The Dolphins not only will have a first-place schedule, but the AFC East also is matched with the AFC South and NFC South, which didn’t have a team with a losing record.

“We will have a tougher road this year,” coach Tony Sparano said this past weekend when asked about the team’s schedule.

But Sparano also noted that one never knows how opponents are actually going to turn out.

The Seattle Seahawks, for example, were expected to contend for the NFC West, not finish 4-12. It took the San Diego Chargers until December to get their act together, but not before the Dolphins beat them 17-10 on Oct. 5.

The Dolphins had the 27th-easiest actual schedule (118-138, .461), according to Graham.

But most of the opponents on the Dolphins’ last-place schedule were about what everyone expected, other than the Super Bowl runner-up Arizona Cardinals, who were a lot better and whipped Miami 31-10 in Week 2.

The Dolphins, who faced three playoff teams from 2007, now will face a first-place schedule, with matchups against six playoff teams, including the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Four of the Dolphins’ games will be on the road - at Tennessee, Atlanta, Carolina and San Diego.

Miami also will face New England coming off an 11-5 season with Tom Brady, becoming the first team since the ‘85 Broncos to win 11 games or more and miss the post-season.

Heading into the off-season, the Dolphins know they have a number of areas to address. If they don’t, last year’s 11-5 feel-good story could turn into a 6-10 or 7-9 reality check.

“It’s hard to tell. When you look at this whole thing down the road, I’m not sure where it will take us,” Sparano said. “But it’s our job to make sure the team is better and is as well-prepared as we can when we get out there.”

Sparano knows that earning a brutal schedule is part of the price of success. But there’s an even bigger benefit to winning.

“Right now, a couple of weeks into the off-season, the amount of communication I’ve had with some of our players is outstanding,” he said. “To see these guys, they’re itching to get back in the weight room. They’re calling you. They’re trying to contact you just to say, ‘Hi Coach, how you doing?’ I think that’s important.

“You don’t do that if finish 3-13. I’m not sure they’re that anxious to get back and get going.”

The critical schedule comparison is the Dolphins .vs. the Patriots.
(not the strenght of schedule comparison between 2008/2009).

14 games are the same (essentially), the 2 different games:
The Patriots have Baltimore (11-5) and Denver (8-8)
Dolphins have Steelers (12-4) and San Diego (8-8)

While I'd prefer those 2 games the Patriots have, it still comes down to being one win better than the Patriots (or rely on tie breakers). A 10 win season in 2009 MIGHT accomplish that (but it would be considered a "poorer" performance to 2008).

AFC has enough strong teams (Indy, Tenn, Balt, Pitts) getting a Wild Card is tough even with a "weak" schedule (see 2008 Patriots).

i agree with reppa

The NEW ERA DOLPHINS are a TEAM that welcomes the challenge.

So BRING IT ON!

"Don't tell me about the pain, show me the baby." - BP

Let me ask you this. Why does a team have a harder schedule? Because, they finish at the top of their division or the league. Thus they are already a quality team. The teams at the bottom get the easier schedules. And they have to start to get better. We did and some didn't! If we would have been matched up against a better schedule, we would probaly not had the same success that we had. If you switch out the bottom feeders in the NFC we played, such as the 49ers, Rams & Seahawks with the Panthers, Falcons & Bucs. Then switched out the Raiders & Chiefs with the Titans & Steelers, then I doubt very much we finish 9-7 or better. We did not dominate even one of the bottom feeders we played. We improved enough to win those games, but struggled to finish them off. Teams that are in the upper realms of the league usually finish those types of teams off during the corse of the game. With an occasional close win, because they don't play very well. We are all very happy that we had a good season, but in reality, we still have to get alot better, if we want to win a Super Bowl!

RW13 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Let me ask you this. Why does a team have a harder
> schedule? Because, they finish at the top of their
> division or the league. Thus they are already a
> quality team. The teams at the bottom get the
> easier schedules. And they have to start to get
> better.

In reality, that is not true... only 2 games for the season are determined by your results from the prior year.

Strength of schedule is based almost entirely by the division you are in and luck of the draw for that year for how strong the divisions that your team's division is matched up against. The two extra games SOS games have very little effect on the overall SOS.

If you look at the strength of schdule rankings... you will almost always see trends of teams being fairly close to the other teams in their division.

From RW13:

"We are all very happy that we had a good season, but in reality, we still have to get alot better, if we want to win a Super Bowl!"

I agree completely. I hope that the "trifecta" have the OL; DL and LB as priorities this draft again. I think they do.

Yes it's only 2 games, but that would have changed alot for us. Raiders & Cheifs or Titans & Steelers. That makes a huge difference! Plus whatever NFC division you get will make or break you sometimes as well. We got the weakest by far last year. Next year we get the Falcons, who are on their way up, Panthers, Saints & Bucs. All have good coaches and should be solid again. If not better!

personaly IM GLAD we got a hard schedule. good for the team it helps weed out the crap and the butter rise's SO GET YOUR POPCORN READY!!LOL serious i feel we will do better than 11.5 maybe 12/4 we dont play baltimore. thank god. and sure all the nfc south teams had winning records but look at the teams they played? i mean im not worried about atlanta, the panthers without peppers, or delhomme, if he does play he is washed up. the bucs? with new qb and coaches come on guys,tennesee again new qb situation most likely we are good at shutting down run and well will they get hanesworth back? AND they have no recieving core realy? so whats all the fuss about? tom brady is not going to be back untill mid year plus the pats are old? he oline come on there defense in shambles i put them at 9/7 the jets qb situation is horrible same with the bills. i know we can beat the colts. and houston will prob destroy us they will be a solid team next year i mean STRONG contender. thats about the only team i realy would hate to play but got to beat the best to be the best so bring it.

I no wee can beet the colts 2. Even dKe worst college team can beat the Kolts. A retarded Jr high school kid would say soo too.They are no good. They has no receivers and paiton mannyng is washed up.


Even a pewee league fotball teem would beet the coltz.

EYE AHGREE.

We have to upgrade and have to get better, first to get back in the palyoffs, but more importantly, a good league schedule will prepare us to go far in th epalyoffs if were any good.

The Steelers won this year with the toughest schedule in the NFL. If we are ready to win, we'll win regardless of the schedule.

What doesn't kill us will make us stronger. If we make it through the first half of the season intact and at least tied for the top of our division, look out.

Yes we need to get better, because in my opinion we would not have gone 11-5 with this current roster against next years schedule. We were helped out from an easier schedule last year, plain and simple. Yes we were greatly improved, but we still have along way to go.