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GAME TIME: 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, Jan 4th. The game will be broadcast nationally on CBS TV and on WQAM. PLACE: Dolphins Stadium, Miami, FL WEATHER FORECAST: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 11 mph. FIELD CONDITIONS: The field at Dolphins' stadium is grass and the Dolphins have not played on it since December 14th. The weather is good this week, so the field should be in great shape. STANDINGS & STATS: The Dolphins are 11-5 and the AFC East Division Champions. The Ravens are 11-5 and finished in second place in the AFC North, behind the Steelers. The Ravens are the 6th seeded wildcard team.
Dolphins Pts/Game Rank Ravens Pts/Game Rank
Scored 21.6 21 Scored 24.1 11
Allowed 19.8 9 Allowed 15.2 3
Dolphins Yds/Game Rank Ravens Yds/Game Rank
Total Offense: 346 12 Total Defense: 261 2
Rushing: 119 11 vs Rush: 81 3
Passing: 227 10 vs Pass: 180 2
Ravens Dolphins
Total Offense: 324 18 Total Defense: 329 15
Rushing: 148 4 vs Rush: 101 10
Passing: 176 28 vs Pass: 228 25
Sacks Made (Avg/G) Allowed (Avg/G)
Dolphins 40 2.5 26 1.6
Ravens 34 2.1 33 2.1
Turnover differential:
Dolphins +17
Ravens +13
Individual Skill Position Stats:
Dolphins
QB: QB Pennington: 321-476-3653-19-7-97.4
Rush: RB Brown: 214-916-4.3-10
Rush: RB Williams: 160-659-4.1-4
Rec: WR Ginn,Jr: 56-790-14.1-2
Rec: WR Bess: 54-554-10.3-1
Rec: TE Fasano: 34-454-13.4-7
Ravens
QB: QB Flacco: 257-428-2971-14-12-80.3
Rush: RB McClain: 232-902-3.9-10
Rush: RB McGahee: 170-671-3.9-7
Rec: WR Mason: 80-1037-13.0-5
Rec: WR Clayton: 41-695-17.0-3
Rec: TE Heap: 35-403-11.5-3
Legend
QBs: completions-attempts-yards-touchdowns-ints-rating
RBs: rushes-yards-average-touchdowns
WRs: receptions-yards-average-touchdowns
HISTORY: The Ravens beat the Dolphins 27-13 in week 7 of the regular season and have won 2 of the last 3 games, but Miami holds the overall series lead, 5-2. In their only playoff meeting, the Ravens beat the Dolphins 20-3. Coincidentally, this was the last playoff game the Dolphins played and it was a wildcard game in Miami.
Dolphins:
QUESTIONABLE: TE David Martin (head/neck) (LMT Thu)
DE Randy Starks (ankle) (DNP Wed)
Ravens:
DOUBTFUL: CB Samari Rolle (ankle) (DNP Thu)
QUESTIONABLE: S Ed Reed (hamstring) (LMT Thu)
CB Fabian Washington (toe) (LMT Thu)
WR Derrick Mason (shoulder) (LMT Thu)
LB Jarret Johnson (calf) (LMT Thu)
DT Justin Bannan (foot) (LMT Thu)
OL Chris Chester (back) (LMT Thu)
LB Antwan Barnes (pectoral) (LMT Thu)
RB Ray Rice (shin contusion) (LMT Thu)
WR Mark Clayton (knee) (LMT Thu)
S Tom Zbikowski (thigh) (LMT Thu)
K Matt Stover (ankle) (LMT Thu)
Notes: DNP = Did Not Practice. LMT = Limited in Practice
DOLPHINS STARTERS:
Offense: Defense:
QB - 10 Chad Pennington LE - 70 Kendall Langford
RB - 23 Ronnie Brown NT - 95 Jason Ferguson
FB - 39 Lousaka Polite RE - 91 Vonnie Holliday
WR - 19 Ted Ginn,Jr SLB - 98 Matt Roth
WR - 15 Devone Bess ILB - 51 Akin Ayodele
TE - 80 Anthony Fasano ILB - 52 Channing Crowder
LT - 77 Jake Long WLB - 55 Joey Porter
LG - 57 Andy Alleman LCB - 25 Will Allen
C - 64 Samson Satele RCB - 21 Andre Goodman
RG - 68 Ikechuku Ndukwe SS - 37 Yeremiah Bell
RT - 72 Vernon Carey FS - 24 Renaldo Hill
K - 5 Dan Carpenter P - 2 Brandon Fields
PR - 15 Devone Bess KR - 38 Patrick Cobbs
NOTES: TE David Martin and DE Randy Starks were limited in practice on Thursday and are officially listed as questionable. While neither player is listed as a starter, both are important to the team and will be needed on Sunday. Since this is a playoff game, they will be on the field if there is any way to get them there. RAVENS STARTERS: Offense: Defense: QB - 5 Joe Flacco LDE - 94 Justin Bannan RB - 33 Le'Ron McClain NT - 92 Haloti Ngata FB - 42 Lorenzo Neal RDE - 90 Trevor Pryce WR - 85 Derrick Mason LLB - 95 Jarret Johnson WR - 89 Mark Clayton MLB - 52 Ray Lewis TE - 86 Todd Heap MLB - 57 Bart Scott LT - 71 Jared Gaither RLB - 95 Terrell Suggs LG - 66 Ben Grubbs LCB - 31 Fabian Washington C - 60 Jason Brown RCB - 22 Samari Rolle RG - 65 Chris Chester SS - 36 Jim Leonhard RT - 79 Willie Anderson FS - 20 Ed Reed K - 3 Matt Stover P - 4 Sam Koch PR - 36 Jim Leonhard KR - 28 Tom Zbikowski NOTES: The Ravens are severely beat up, with 5 of their defensive starters, including 3 of the 4 starting secondary sitting out the Wednesday practice and 11 players listed as "limited" in the Thursday practice. Again, though, this is a playoff game and the only player I believe might not start is DB Samari Rolle. Rolle's backup is listed as Corey Ivy, an 8 year veteran.
Miami's offense is keyed around Ronnie and Ricky, but the Ravens have an outstanding run defense and will be focusing on them. More important to Miami's success this weekend will be the play of Jake Long, David Martin and Ted Ginn,Jr. Long needs to protect Chad Pennington while Martin will be drawing second tier coverage as the Ravens focus on stopping Fasano. And Ted Ginn should be able to run past the Ravens' banged up secondary. On defense, the number one goal will be to plug up the middle of the Ravens' offensive line to take away the running lanes for the Ravens. That means that the play of Jason Ferguson, Vonnie Holliday, Randy Starks, Phillip Merling, Kendall Langford and Paul Soliai will be more important than it has been all year. Also, Andre' Goodman will need to play shutdown football against the Ravens' receivers. The Ravens' offense has relied heavily on running between the tackles with Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee. McClain is a load at 260 pounds, but even he needs to have holes to run through. Joe Flacco is a rookie quarterback who has played well, but he is still a rookie and has thrown 12 picks this year. And Derrick Mason is their best wide receiver and caught 6 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown in the first game against Miami, but he is suffering from a shoulder injury. Ravens' middle linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed are the leaders of their defensive unit, which is number 2 overall in defense in the NFL this year. In the first game against the Dolphins, outside LB Terrell Suggs had an interception for a touchdown. Having said that, there are some weaknesses there to exploit. Their secondary is badly banged up with 3 of their 4 starters missing some or all of practice this week. Starting cornerback Samari Rolle has not practiced yet this week, while Ed Reed and Fabian Washington have been limited. How they can play could well determine the outcome of the game. On special teams, neither team has done anything spectacular this year, although Miami probably has a slight edge now that their coverage teams have solidified. In particular, Ravens' kicker Matt Stover is hobbled with an injury and has only made half his field goal attempts outside the 40. In contrast, Dan Carpenter has been successful 71% of the time from outside the 40. The Dolphins and Ravens have both stunned the pundits and defied the conventional wisdom this year by making the playoffs after they combined for a grand total of 6 wins in 2007. Both teams feature rookie head coaches who have brought back a winning attitude and a sense of toughness to their teams. On offense, both teams like to start with the running game, although the Ravens rely more heavily on it than the Dolphins. With their rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens realize that they can't put too much pressure on him to win games, so they have put together a very strong running attack anchored by 260 pound Le'Ron McClain. It is power football at its most basic with McClain pounding between the tackles to set up the pass and control the football. While Flacco has played very well for a rookie, he is nowhere near the level of Chad Pennington, both as a leader of the team and as a game manager. If the Dolphins can force the Ravens to throw by stuffing the Ravens' running game, they can give themselves a significant advantage. Of course, that is easier said than done. For Miami to control the Ravens' running game, they will need to crowd the line of scrimmage with 8 or 9 players and the defensive line - Jason Ferguson, Vonnie Holliday and Kendall Langford in particular - will need to stuff the center of the line and keep those running lanes closed. However, if they can do that, it will disrupt the Ravens' gameplan enough to give the Dolphins the edge. Fortunately for Miami, Ferguson and Holliday are seasoned veterans who have been to the playoffs before. The Dolphins will need them to show the way and provide not just great individual effort but also leadership to the younger players. As is almost always the case, it all comes down to the war in the trenches. The Dolphins' defensive backs should be able to provide the coverage on the Ravens' receivers to make an 8 or 9 man front possible. Andre' Goodman, in particular, has been elevating his game every week and with the Ravens' best receiver Derrick Mason hurting, Goodman and Allen should be able to keep him from being effective. Ultimately, the success or failure of the Dolphins' defense will rest on the line. When the Dolphins have the ball, they are going to have to rely on Dan Henning and Chad Pennington to devise and execute an unconventional offensive scheme that can beat the Ravens. With their relatively inexperienced offensive line, the Dolphins will not be able to run straight ahead at the Ravens. For offensive success, the Dolphins will need to be able to pass the ball and find ways to confuse the Ravens' defense. I've heard some pundits say that the Dolphins will not be able to throw the ball effectively because of the Ravens' pass rush. However, a closer look at their defense does not show a particularly dominating pass rush. They have 6 fewer sacks on the year than Miami and in the first game this year, only managed to sack Pennington once. Pennington completed 69% of his passes in that game for 295 yards. Another reason the Dolphins should focus on the pass this week is the banged up Ravens' secondary. Miami's receivers should be able to find seams in the Ravens' defense and out-run the Ravens' defensive backs. Anthony Fasano will undoubtedly be a focus of the Ravens' defense, but that should leave David Martin in favorable coverage situations. Martin could have a very big game this week. The Dolphins will trot out the Wildcat from time to time, despite the Ravens being able to shut it down effectively in week 7. However, Dan Henning will give us some new wrinkles to the Wildcat this week and it could become more of a passing formation this time around. The Dolphins left at least one and possibly two touchdowns on the field last week when they made mistakes out of the Wildcat. They can't afford those same kinds of mistakes this week. Overall, the Dolphins' offense can have success as long as they protect Chad Pennington and don't turn the ball over. They will have to rely on Pennington's' intelligence and game management skills, but that has been a winning combination for most of this season. While special teams could play a role in this week's game, it will most likely be in the form of a last minute field goal attempt at the end of the game. And despite the experience of Ravens' kicker Matt Stover, I believe that Miami has an edge in that situation. This game will be a very physical, tough, old-school football game with success being determined in the trenches at the line of scrimmage. Whichever team wins the battle there will win this game. PERSONAL NOTE: I don't usually include a personal note in these previews, but this week I feel compelled to say this - regardless of the outcome of the game against the Ravens this Sunday, I consider this season to be one of the best seasons in the history of the team. It ranks right up there with 1972 and 1984 as far as team effort and accomplishment are concerned. I have enjoyed this season far more than any season I've seen since the early 80s. To watch the game on TV, you may go to one of the sports bars listed on my "Places To Watch" web page. To listen to the game live over the Internet, you must now pay the NFL for the privelege. They are charging $9.95 (US) per month or $39.95 for the season for something you used to get for free. If you want to sign up for that, go to the following link NFL Field Pass. Also, here is a list of some websites that have live scores and updates. Both the Official Website and NFL.com have almost live applications that run in your browser and give you current stats and play-by-play information.
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