GAME TIME: 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, Jan 2nd. The game will be broadcast regionally on CBS TV.

PLACE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.

WEATHER FORECAST: Mostly cloudy skies with a high of 56 degrees F and a chance of showers.

FIELD CONDITIONS: The field at M&T is grass and in good shape, although a little rain could make it slippery.

STANDINGS & STATS: The Dolphins are 4-11 and in last place in the AFC East. The Ravens are 8-7 and in second place in the AFC North.

Dolphins       Pts/Game         Ravens         Pts/Game
Scored          16.8            Scored           19.1
Allowed         21.6            Allowed          16.3

Dolphins       Yds/Game  Rank   Ravens         Yds/Game  Rank
Total Offense:	 271      30    Total Defense:   297       7
      Rushing:    83      31          vs Rush:   106       8
      Passing:	 188      22          vs Pass:   191      10 

Ravens                          Dolphins
Total Offense:	 270      31    Total Defense:   304       8
      Rushing:   125       9          vs Rush:   141      30
      Passing:   145      31          vs Pass:   163       1

Sacks		Made (Avg/G)	Allowed (Avg/G)
Dolphins         36    2.4        49      3.3 
Ravens           36    2.4        35      2.3

Turnover differential:
Dolphins       -14
Ravens          +8

Individual Skill Position Stats:
Dolphins                        
QB:    QB Rosenfels:         0-1-0-0-0-39.6
Rush:  RB Morris:             120-434-3.6-5
Rush:  RB Minor:              101-380-3.8-3
Rec:   TE McMichael:          71-786-11.1-4
Rec:   WR Chambers:           65-752-11.6-6      
Rec:   WR Thompson:           22-346-15.7-4

Ravens        
QB:    QB Boller:   244-437-2417-12-11-70.3
Rush:  RB Lewis:              201-839-4.2-6
Rush:  RB Taylor:             158-713-4.5-2
Rec:   WR Taylor:             34-421-12.4-0
Rec:   TE Heap:               27-303-11.2-3
Rec:   WR Johnson:            33-362-11.0-1

Legend 
     QBs: completions-attempts-yards-touchdowns-ints-rating
     RBs: rushes-yards-average-touchdowns
     WRs: receptions-yards-average-touchdowns

INJURIES:

Dolphins:	
         OUT: QB AJ Feeley (Ribs)
    DOUBTFUL: WR Marty Booker (Ankle)
QUESTIONABLE: WR Derrius Thompson (Hamstring)
              DE Jay Williams (Knee)
    PROBABLE: K  Olindo Mare (Calf)
              C  Seth McKinney (Knee)
              TE Randy McMichael (Groin)
              DT Mario Monds (Knee)
              DE Jason Taylor (Foot)
              LB Zach Thomas (Hamstring)
              P  Matt Turk (Right Calf) 
Ravens:  
         OUT: G  Edwin Mulitalo (Triceps) 
QUESTIONABLE: OT Orlando Brown (Knee)
              TE Todd Heap (Ankle)
              NT Ma'ake Kemoeatu (Calf)
              RB Jamal Lewis (Ankle)
              LB Ray Lewis (Wrist)
              CB Deion Sanders (Foot)
              LB Bart Scott (Knee) 
    PROBABLE: C  Casey Rabach (Thigh)
              DE Anthony Weaver (Back) 
              
DOLPHINS STARTERS:
Offense:		     Defense:

QB - 18 Sage Rosenfels       RDE - 99 Jason Taylor
RB - 31 Sammy Morris         RDT - 90 Jeff Zgonina 
FB - 32 Jamar Martin         LDT - 98 Bryan Robinson
WR - 84 Chris Chambers       LDE - 96 David Bowens
WR - 82 Bryan Gilmore        SLB - 52 Morlon Greenwood
TE - 81 Randy McMichael      MLB - 54 Zach Thomas
LT - 77 Damion McIntosh      WLB - 50 Brendan Ayanbadejo
LG - 78 Jeno James           LCB - 23 Patrick Surtain
C -  68 Seth McKinney        RCB - 29 Sam Madison
RG - 66 Rex Hadnot           SS  - 24 Sammy Knight
RT - 70 John StClair         FS  - 20 Arturo Freeman

K -  10 Olindo Mare          P   -  1 Matt Turk

PR - 83 Wes Welker           KR  - 83 Wes Welker

Ravens STARTERS:
Offense:                     Defense:
QB -  7 Kyle Boller          RDE  - 94 Marques Douglas
RB - 31 Jamal Lewis          NT   - 97 Kelly Gregg
FB - 39 Alan Ricard          LDE  - 98 Anthony Weaver
WR - 89 Travis Taylor        ROLB - 96 Adalius Thomas
WR - 84 Clarence Moore       RILB - 52 Ray Lewis
TE - 86 Todd Heap            LILB - 56 Edgerton Hartwell
LT - 75 Jonathan Ogden       LOLB - 55 Terrell Suggs 
LG - 66 Bennie Anderson      LCB  - 21 Chris McAlister
C  - 61 Casey Rabach         RCB  - 28 Gary Baxter
RG - 62 Mike Flynn           SS   - 20 Ed Reed
RT - 78 Orlando Brown        FS   - 47 Will Demps

K  -  3 Matt Stover          P    - 15 Dave Zastudil

PR - 36 B.J. Sams            KR   - 36 B.J. Sams

KEY MATCHUPS:

1. Sage Rosenfels vs Ed Reed: Sage is starting his first game and will be facing a very aggressive and turnover-happy Ravens' defense. Safety Ed Reed of the Ravens has 8 interceptions this season.

2. Zach Thomas vs Jamal Lewis: Almost all of Baltimore's offense is based on their running game. Zach is recovering from an injury, but so is Lewis.

3. BJ Sams/Wes Welker vs Dolphins'/Ravens' Coverage Teams: Sams and Welker are two very good return men and this game has all the makings of a close defensive struggle where field position becomes crucial.

4. Derrius Thompson vs Deion Sanders: Thompson has recently become a very dangerous player in the red zone, catching touchdowns on fade routes.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Sage Rosenfels is starting his first game in the NFL after waiting almost 4 years. How he handles the pressure will be the most important factor in determining how well the Dolphins offense performs. Also, Bryan Gilmore will see a lot more playing time this week, even if Derrius Thompson is well enough to start.

On defense, it will be up to Jeff Zgonina and Bryan Robinson to play well enough to let Zach Thomas get to Jamal Lewis and slow down the Ravens' running game. Brendan Ayanbadejo had a good game last week and he'll need to continue that performance. Jason Taylor and David Bowens have both been playing better since Jim Bates took over as the head coach.

The Ravens' Kyle Boller is a mediocre quarterback who will have to contend with the number 1 pass defense in the NFL. Jamal Lewis should play, but his backup Chester Taylor is actually having a better year than Jamal Lewis. Jonathan Ogden is an excellent left tackle, but the Dolphins have been lining up Jason Taylor on the other side a lot and right tackle Orlando Brown will have his hands full trying to stop Taylor.

On defense, Ray Lewis is the biggest name they have, but playing in a 3-4 defense does not allow him as much leeway as he had when he was a solo middle linebacker. Deion Sanders is playing as their nickel back, but it's strong safety Ed Reed who has 8 interceptions this year.

And on special teams, between Wes Welker and the Ravens' BJ Sams, these two teams have the 5th and 7th best punt returners in the league this year.

MY ANALYSIS:

Last year, the Dolphins and Ravens played an overtime game in Miami without a single touchdown being scored. The final score of 9-6 tells you exactly what kind of game it was - the two teams combined for a total of 228 passing yards.

While there are a lot of differences between that game and this one, the biggest single difference is this year's absence of a Dolphins' running game. In the game last year, Ricky Williams picked up 105 yards rushing to keep the Dolphins in the game. This year, the Dolphins have no running game to speak of, so they'll need to find some other way to win.

Both these teams are strong on defense and not so strong on offense. It's hard to imagine, but the Ravens are actually ranked lower on offense than the Dolphins and only a little higher on defense.

The main difference between these two teams is not in production on the field, but in turnovers. The Ravens have a +8 margin in turnovers, while the Dolphins are at -14. Obviously, for the Dolphins to stand a chance at winning this game, they must limit the turnovers.

That is going to be difficult for the Dolphins with Sage Rosenfels starting at quarterback for the first time in his career. While he does seem to be a smart guy and has a good arm, he'll have to make snap judgements against an agressive and turnover-producing defense. Those kinds of judgements usually only come through experience.

If the situation was different and the Dolphins were fighting for the playoffs, I'd expect Miami to play conservatively on offense, with high-percentage passes and lots of running plays. But the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose and want to see what Sage Rosenfels can do, so I don't believe they'll hold back. I think we'll see a full range of play-calling from Chris Foerster.

I think you can expect the Dolphins to start off relatively conservatively, to let Sage get his confidence and test out the Ravens' defense. But as the game progresses, the Dolphins will open up the playbook and throw in plenty of deep passes and even "trick" plays.

Unfortunately, I don't think that that will do much good against the Ravens. They have a veteran and saavy defense who won't be caught off-guard by the Dolphins. The Ravens will blitz continuously and hope that Rosenfels' inexperience will allow them to take the ball away. And it probably will.

Still, I would be surprised if the Dolphins played it close to the vest on offense on Sunday.

When the Ravens have the ball, they will spend most of their plays running the ball. They have no wide receivers of any quality and the Dolphins' defensive backs should be able to smother them without too much trouble.

On the other hand, the Ravens do have good backs and a good run-blocking offensive line, while the Dolphins are still weak in the middle of the defensive line. Zach Thomas is back on defense, but he can't do it all on his own. The Ravens will run hard up the middle and probably be fairly successful at it against the Dolphins. The Ravens are missing their starting offensive guard and will be playing a backup at center, as their regular center moves to guard, but that probably won't make much difference. Odds are that the Ravens' offense will be successful running the ball.

Still, the Ravens don't score a lot of points, so don't expect that this will be a high scoring game. The Ravens will have some success running the ball, but probably won't be able to put a lot of points on the board against the Miami defense. The Dolphins offense, on the other hand, will probably try every trick in the book to score and may or may not manage it.

In low scoring games like this, the deciding factor is usually turnovers. In that area, the Ravens have a clear advantage, despite the improvement of the Dolphins since Jim Bates took over. Playing against the Ravens' defense is a tough assignment for any quarterback and Sage Rosenfels' inexperience probably dooms him to having a bad day against Ray Lewis and company.

However, there are two ways the Dolphins can win this game. First of all, they can score quickly and force the Ravens to play catch-up. If they can get ahead of the Ravens enough to force them to throw on offense, the Miami defense should be able to make the plays to create the turnovers to allow the Dolphins to win. I expect the Miami offensive gameplan will be geared towards this possibility.

The other way they can win is with a couple of big plays on special teams. Against the Patriots, Wes Welker's 71 yard punt return kick started the Dolphins and prevented the game from turning into a blowout. If the Dolphins can get a couple of big plays on special teams, that can turn the tide against the Ravens. It is pretty difficult to gameplan for big plays, however.

The bottom line is that this game will probably be a close, defensive struggle decided by turnovers and field position. And that, unfortunately, favors the Ravens.

PLACES TO WATCH:

To watch the game on TV, you may go to one of the sports bars listed on my Places To Watch web page.

To listen to the game live over the internet, you need to go to NFL.com and sign up for their RealAudio package. It costs money, so you have to subscribe to listen.

Also, here is a list of some websites that have live scores and updates. Both MiamiDolphins.com and NFL.com have almost live applications that run in your browser and give you current stats and play-by-play information. If you can't get to a TV, the best way to watch the game is to listen to while tracking the play-by-play at MiamiDolphins.com or NFL.com.

• MiamiDolphins.com: From the Game - Almost Live Play-by-Play
• NFL.com: NFL Official Scoreboard
• ESPN: ESPNet Sportszone Scoreboard

• Dolphins Endzone: Dolphins vs Ravens
• NFL.com: Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
• ESPNet Sportszone: Game Preview
• FoxSports: Preview
• ESPNet Sportszone: ESPN experts' picks for Week 17